Observed and projected change of Arctic temperature and pressure

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• Observed and projected change of Arctic
  temperature and pressure
• John Walsh
• Department of Atmospheric Sciences
• University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign

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Recent temperature trends
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Seasonal temperature change
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Model biases Observed - GCM
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GCM projections 2070-2089
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Surface air temperature variability (model vs.
observed)
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IPCC models Projected Arctic (60-90ºN) change
of surface air temperature relative to 1980-2000
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Across-model vs. cross-scenario uncertainty
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signal / noise change / interannual variability
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signal / noise change / inter-model variability
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Sea Level Pressure

• decrease in mass from high-latitudes to lower
  latitudes
• pattern consistent with temperature trends

7.0
3.5
Annual mean SLP change 1954-2003
0.0
mb
-3.5
-7.0
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Recent observed seasonal SLP change 1954-2003
temperature
temperature
Summer (JJA)
Winter (DJF)
SLP
SLP
7.0
3.5
0.0
mb
-3.5
-7.0
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GCM projections 2070-2089
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