SCENARIOS FOR CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS

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SCENARIOS FOR CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS II. VIOLENT
OUTCOME
IMMEDIATE CONSEQUENCES
LONGER-TERM IMPLICATIONS
TAIWANESE/US VICTORY
CHINESE VICTORY
. Taiwanese independence . Grave political
instability, divisions in China . Widespread
deaths destruction, especially in China .
Political economic turmoil . Military or
extreme nationalist dictatorship? . Withdrawal
from region, world
. Chinese/Taiwanese reunification . Widespread
deaths destruction, especially in and near
Taiwan
. Regime stabilized . Setbacks to economy
political liberalization . Economic turmoil .
Rigorous suppression of political dissent .
Guerrilla warfare? . Flight of foreign capital? .
Deep conflicts (China vs Japan?) . Tendency to
bandwagoning with China . Humiliated
temptation to isolationism? . Fukuyama
relentless advance of West - halted or revived
CHINA
. Insecure in face of wounded, aggressive China .
Still major economic reconstruction task . Big
setback to economy . US Japan assume
leadership, as resentful China turns inward .
Reinforced as regional hegemon . New Cold War
TAIWAN
EAST ASIA
US Role in ASIA
WORLD