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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos
MarinERA Facilitating the coordination of
national and regional marine
RTD programmes in Europe
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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos

• The project aims to lead to
• an improved understanding of the evolution of the
  Mediterranean Marine Ecosystem in decadal time
  scales, in order to
• lead to more reliable predictions in the context
  of currently evolving anthropogenic climatic
  change.

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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos

• Motivation (in place of an introduction)
• Decadal variability of the atmospheric forcing

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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos

• Motivation (in place of an introduction)
• Decadal variability of the atmospheric forcing

• 11-year cycle of the solar forcing

Weng, JASTP 2005
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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos

• Motivation (in place of an introduction)
• Decadal variability of the atmospheric forcing
• 11-year cycle of the solar forcing
• Internal response of the Mediterranean sea to
  decadal-scale forcing.

Casford, 2002
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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos

• Motivation (in place of an introduction)
• Decadal variability of the atmospheric forcing
• 11-year cycle of the solar forcing
• Internal response of the Mediterranean sea to
  decadal-scale forcing.
• Decadal scale of anthropogenic forcing.

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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos

• Why now?
• Because now we are in the verge of obtaining the
  capacity to do this
• Instrumental period extending to several decades
• Paleoceanographic analyses reaching decadal
  resolutions
• Increased flow of proxy data covering hundreds of
  years at higher than decadal resolution
• Numerical simulations (almost) possible

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MedEcos
Consortium
Department of Marine Sciences, University of the
Aegean
Institute of Oceanography, Hellenic Centre for
Marine Research
Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Scientificas
Institute of Environmental Science and
Technology, UAB
Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, University
of Athens
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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos

• Approach
• Attempt a reconstruction of circulation and
  where possible- ecosystem structure and
  functions based on compilation of available
  information
• When necessary, collect and analyze additional
  information (sediment cores, biogeochemical
  functioning)
• Major effort in fusing paleoceanographic,
  instrumental and modelling results
• Attempt to reproduce past and present conditions
  using numerical modelling, tuning circulation
  and ecosystem models.
• Provide calibrated worst-case predictions based
  on the above

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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos

• Structure of the project
• WP1 Coordination external links
• WP2 Field sampling
• WP3 Instrumental period data collection and
  fusion
• WP4 Instrumental period hindcast and assessment
• WP5 Paleoceanographic hindcasts
• WP6 Forecasts

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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos
WP2 Field sampling
Task 2.1 Primary productivity rates and
community structure Task 2.2 Production, cycling
and export of organic matter (OM) Task 2.3
Production and fluxes of carbonate species
(coccoliths, foraminifera). Task 2.4 Temperature
and salinity proxies calibrations
Deliverables D2.1. Calculations of PP rates and
export of OM from the euphotic to the meso- and
bathypelagic zones Month 12 D2.2. Mineralization
vs. export of OM under different oxidation states
(high vs. low oxygen levels) Month 12 D2.3.
Export of calcareous nanoplankton and
calculations of rain ratios (Organic/Carbonate
fluxes) Month 12
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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos
WP3 Instrumental period data collection and
fusion
Task 3.1. Collection of direct atmospheric
forcing information for the instrumental period.
Source NOAA/GFDL committed Climate Change
Experiment coupled model runs Resolution tempora
l monthly spatial 2.5 x2.5 Coverage
1861-2000 Data interpolated to 1/10 to force
the ocean circulation model in WP4.
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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos
WP3 Instrumental period data collection and
fusion
Task 3.2 Estimation of volume, heat, salt and
buoyancy exchange at the Straits for the
instrumental period. Gibraltar Initial and
boundary conditions from the oceanic component of
the previously mentioned NOAA/GFDL committed
Climate Change Experiment coupled model
runs Resolution temporal annual spatial 1 x
1 Coverage 1861-2000 Dardanelles Exchanges
computed indirectly from the heat and freshwater
budget of the Black Sea, based on the above model
runs. A HF radar facility facing the Dardanelles
exit will be used for assessment and possibly
calibration
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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos
WP3 Instrumental period data collection and
fusion
Task 3.3. Collection of sediment cores for
high-resolution analysis of the instrumental
period.
Sediment cores from selected high-sedimentation
regions (deep Lemnos basin, core MD99-2343)
high-resolution analysis of the sediment
corresponding to the instrumental period. All
extractable information (regarding palaeo-SST,
palaeo-SSS, ecosystem structure and functioning
etc.) will be analyzed with emphasis on
decadal-scale variability.
D3.1. Air-sea and lateral (Strait) fluxes for
forcing the instrumental period simulations.
D3.2. High-resolution (decadal-scale)
sedimentary information for the instrumental
period.
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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos
WP4 Instrumental period hindcast and assessment
Task 4.1. Circulation modelling

• A version of the Princeton Ocean Model, at a
  resolution of 1/10 x 1/10 and 24 sigma levels
  with momentum, heat and freshwater flux boundary
  conditions will be used.
• Input rivers, Gibraltar and Dardanelles
• Hadley Centres SST used for assimilation
  purposes
• This model is routinely used for operational
  purposes by the H.C.M.R. in the framework of the
  POSEIDON project

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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos
WP4 Instrumental period hindcast and assessment
Task 4.2. Periods of interest within the
instrumental period.

• Identification of periods of special interest
  within the instrumental period.
• Use of forcing fields from WP3
• Additional use of proxies through cooperation /
  links with MedClivar

Task 4.3. Ecosystem modelling for simulation of
the selected periods of interest.

• The ERSEM Ecosystem model will be run for 1-2
  years within the selected periods

D4.1. Circulation and thermohaline functioning of
the Mediterranean for the instrumental
period. D4.2. Selected periods for ecosystem
simulations. D4.3. Ecosystem simulations of the
selected periods and comparison to the
sedimentary records.
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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos
WP5 Paleoceanographic hindcasts

• Task 5.1. Selection of periods of interest out of
  the instrumental period.
• select periods of special interest within the
  Holocene that would be worth and it would be
  possible to attempt to simulate
• to define numerical experiments allowing the
  investigation of the thermohaline and ecosystem
  dynamics
• to use the latter in an effort to approximate the
  climatic conditions leading to the observed
  sediment variability (for example, sapropel
  formation).

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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos
WP5 Paleoceanographic hindcasts

• Task 5.2. Simulation experiments
• Attempt to simulate the periods selected by task
  5.1
• Experiments plagued by uncertainty regarding the
  meteorological forcing and boundary conditions
  (Strait exchanges)
• Approach will use the Bigg et al., 1994 and Myers
  et al. 1999 methodology as a starting basis
• New developments (like the AGCM reproduced
  climate 6000 BP by Vettoretti et al., 1998) will
  be incorporated.
• Special attention will be given to decadal-scale
  variability

D5.1. Report of the workshop on climatic
conditions and related forcing for the selected
periods outside the instrumental record D5.2.
Report on the simulation experiments
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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos
WP6 Forecasts

• Task 6.1. Collection of direct atmospheric
  forcing information for various selected climatic
  scenaria.
• Momentum, heat and freshwater fluxes from the
  NOAA/GFDL CM2.0/CM2.1 model runs will be
  interpolated to 1/10 x 1/10 to force the Med
  circulation model
• Task 6.2. Estimation of volume, heat, salt and
  buoyancy exchange at the Straits for various
  selected climatic scenaria.
• Estimation of exchanges through the Straits as in
  task 4.2
• Task 6.3. Simulations of circulation and
  ecosystem functioning
• Exploit the results of 6.1 and 6.2 to force the
  circulation model under the IPCC worst case
  scenario
• Selected periods will be chosen to run the ERSEM
  model in order to investigate the ecosystem
  response

D6.1. Air-sea and lateral fluxes under various
IPCC scenario. D6.2. Predictions on changing
thermohaline and ecosystem functioning under the
worst case IPCC scenario for CO2 emissions
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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos
TimeTable
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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos
(a) Age model of MD99-2343 core developed by
means of ten 14C-AMS dates (triangles), tuning of
the G. bulloides d18O record with the ice d18O
record from the GISP2 core (circles) and tuning
with the d18O record of the MD95-2043 core from
the Alboran Sea (asterisks). (b) Linear
sedimentation rates of MD99-2343 core for the
last 53 kyr that oscillate between 15 and 73
cmkyr-1.
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Decadal scale Variability of the Mediterranean
Ecosystem MedEcos
G. bulloides oxygen isotopic records from (a)
MD95-2043 (Alboran Sea) and (b) MD99-2343 cores
for the last 12 kyr. (c) Sedimentation rates
along MD99-2343 sediment core calculated linearly
among calendar years from 14C accelerator mass
spectrometry dates (triangles) and tie points
(cross). The mean sedimentation rate of 37 cm
kyr-1 is represented by a dashed line.