State of the North Carolina Workforce

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State of the North Carolina Workforce

• An Assessment of the States Labor Force Demand
  and Supply
• 2007 2017

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Today

• Background for the report
• Share data from the report
• Gain your input on policy focus areas and
  implications
• How should our state respond to the findings in
  terms of future policy development and
  state-level action?

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Study Process

• Led by the Commissions Policy Research and
  Assessment Committee (PRAC)
• Commissioned quantitative research of the states
  workforce and economic conditions
• Corporation for a Skilled Workforce
• Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness
• Utilized multiple data sources
• Validated data across multiple stakeholders prior
  to writing report

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The Intent of the Study

• Analyze labor market demand and supply trends and
  forecasts 2007-2017
• Determine the appropriate geographic units for
  study
• Assess education and workforce system gaps in
  meeting labor market demand
• Identify most critical policy challenges and
  opportunities

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Study Outcomes

• 2007-17 labor market demand and supply
  projections for NC and sub-regions
• Key issues likely to arise IF current trends
  continue and no major economic shifts occur
• Provides facts to help guide policy choices

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The Project Authors

• John P. Metcalf - Sr. Partner Community
  Strategic Planning
• CSW is a national private non-profit
  consulting firm based in Ann Arbor, Michigan,
  founded in 1991 (www.skilledwork.org)
• Mission Re-imagine everything about work and
  learning in the global economy to have a
  competitive workforce advantage.
• Dr. Kenneth Poole President, Center for
  Regional Economic
  Competitiveness
• CREC is a national non-profit affiliated with
  George Mason University and ACCRAthe Council for
  Community Economic Research based in Arlington,
  Virginia, established in 2000 (www.creconline.org)
  
• Mission Promote knowledge-based regional
  economic development efforts
  

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Key Trends Found In The Report

• 8 Key Trends

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Key Trends

• Traditional manufacturing continues to shed jobs
  as part of an on-going economic transition
• Traditional middle jobs those that paid a
  family-sustaining wage and required minimal
  formal education or training are disappearing
  as part of this transition
• New job creation is concentrating in certain
  fast-growing metropolitan areas
• Many areas of North Carolina are not prospering
  from the economic transformation

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Key Trends

• Future prosperity depends on achieving higher
  educational attainment levels for all citizens
• Impending baby-boom retirements will exacerbate
  an emerging skills gap among experienced, skilled
  workers
• High-skill in-migrants will help fill part, but
  not all, of this skills gap
• Low-skill in-migrants present both opportunities
  and challenges in meeting the states workforce
  needs

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The Data

• Facts and Figures That Support The Trends

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(No Transcript)
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The Golden Crescent Provides The States Economic
Engine
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The States Traditional Manufacturing Industries
Will Likely Shed More Workers
These 4 industries currently account for one in
three NC manufacturing jobs
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NCs Industry Employment Trends
Projected Employment 2007 5,152,000 2017
5,851,000
Includes Pvt, Farm, Govt Proprietors
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Disadvantaged Regions Are Growing Slower Than The
Rest Of The State
Labor Force and Employment Growth, 2000 to 2005
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State Earnings Trail The Nation
Even In Prosperous Areas
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Success Favors The Prepared Mind NTHS
NC Net New Jobs and Earnings by Required
Education (Est. 2007 and 2017)
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Educational Attainment In the US and North
Carolina (est. 2007) Total Population
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A Divide In the Economy and the Labor Force
Projected Net New Jobs, 2007-2017
NC Net New Jobs Total 690K
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In-migration Creates Future Workforce
Challenges Opportunities
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In-migration Creates Future Workforce Challenges
Opportunities
Hispanic Population Density, 1990
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In-migration Creates Future Workforce Challenges
Opportunities
Hispanic Population Density, 2000
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North Carolina Has A Talent Shortage
Annual estimate calculated from data provided by
the US Census Bureau, UNC/NCCCS and Regional
Dynamics annual employment projections 2007 to
2017 Regional Dynamics
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Questions and Discussion

• State of the North Carolina Workforce

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Input

• As you listened to the reports trends,
  reviewed the policy focus areas and related
  policy implications and questions
• What is your reaction to the policy implications
  and questions of the six focus areas?
• Within each focus area, are there specific policy
  issues you think we should address or emphasize?
• Have we missed anything you consider a
  significant policy issue?
• Your thoughts and opinions!!!

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Next Steps

• PRAC forms four (4) policy workgroups to develop
  policy recommendations for the Commissions and
  Governors consideration based on report and
  forum feedback
• Coordination of the policy workgroups
• Gain stakeholder input
• Refine policy questions
• Develop potential policy solutions
• Delivery recommendations to the Commission
  by July

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Next Steps

• The Policy Workgroups Focus
• Valuing Education and Life-long learning
• improving educational attainment
• Changing Industry
• Middle Jobs Loss (grow sectors and sector
  strategies)
• Geographic Disparities
• Vast Despair of the Coastal and Mountain Regions
  Compared to the Piedmont (overcoming the two
  North Carolinas)
• Rural, small town, and urban
• Changing Workforce Demographics
• baby boomer retirements and in-migration of
  low-skilled workers)
• PowerPoint on www.nccommerce.com

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Later Questions and Comments

• Paul Combs
• Chair of the Policy, Research, and Assessment
  Committee
• combsjp_at_bellsouth.net
• Heidi Stieber
• Staff for the Policy, Research, and Assessment
  Committee
• hstieber_at_nccommerce.com
• 919.715.6658
• John Metcalf
• Corporation for a Skilled Workforce (CSW)
• jmetcalf_at_skilledwork.org
• 704-814-8999
• Ken Poole
• Center for Regional Economic Competitiveness
  (CREC)
• kpoole_at_c2er.org
• 703-522-4980, ext. 16

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Thank You