Global Warming: the Science, the Impacts and the Politics

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Global Warming the Science, the Impacts and the
Politics

• John Houghton
• University of California, Irvine
• 20 February 2003

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The Science of Global Warming
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Variations of the Earths surface temperature
for the past 1,000 years
SPM 1b
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The Greenhouse Effect

• Solar radiation

Long-wave radiation
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Concentration of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Have
Risen Greatly Since Pre-Industrial Times
Carbon dioxide 33 rise
Methane 100 rise
BW 5
The MetOffice. Hadley Center for Climate
Prediction and Research.
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The last 160,000 years (from ice cores) and the
next 100 years
700
CO2 in 2100 (with business as usual)
600
Double pre-industrial CO2
500
Lowest possible CO2 stabilisation level by 2100
400
CO2 concentration (ppm)
CO2 now
300
10
Temperature difference from now C
200
0
10
100
160
120
80
40
Now

• Time (thousands of years)

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The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

• Solar (S) and longwave (L) radiation in Wm-2 at
  the top of the atmosphere

S L 236 236
S L 236 232
S L 236 236
S L 236 236
T -18C
CO2 x 2 Feedbacks H2O (60) Ice/Albedo
(20) Cloud? Ocean?
CO2 x 2
CO2 x 2
TS 15C
TS 15C
DTS 1.2K
DTS 2.5K
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IPCC Synthesis Report
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Estimated solar irradiance variations 1750-2000
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Simulated annual global mean surface temperatures
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The climate system
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The effect of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption (June
1991) on global temperature
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The Impacts ofGlobal Warming
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Contributions to sea level rise (metres),
1990-2100

• ESTIMATED FOR IS92a SCENARIO
• Thermal Expansion 0.28
• Glaciers 0.16
• Greenland 0.06
• Antarctica 0.01
• TOTAL 0.49

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Sea-level transgression scenarios for Bangladesh
Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).
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People at Risk from a 44 cm sea-level rise by
the 2080s Assuming 1990s Level of Flood
Protection
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Projected changes in annual temperatures for the
2050s
BW 11

• The projected change in annual temperatures for
  the 2050s compared with the present day, when the
  climate model is driven with an increase in
  greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about
  1 increase per year in CO2

The MetOffice. Hadley Center for Climate
Prediction and Research.
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Global water use, 19002000
5500
Total use
5000
4500
4000
3500
Agricultural use
km
/year
3
3000
2500
2000
1500
Industrial use
1000
Domestic use
500
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
(from Shiklomanor (1988))
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• Irrigated cropland appears red in this satellite
  photograph, made over the Nile where it flows
  through the Sudan. In the past 70 years, a
  variety of irrigation projects have increased the
  agricultural productivity of this dry region.
  More than half of the increase in the worlds
  agricultural productivity during the past few
  decades has come from irrigation.

From PR Crosson and NJ Rosenberg, 1989
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Changes in rainfall with doubled CO2 (CSIRO model)
160
Australian
40N
40S
land
140
points
120
100
Change in
80
frequency

60
()
40
20
0
20
gt25.6
0.2-0.4
0.4-0.8
0.8-1.6
1.6-3.2
3.2-6.4
6.4-12.8
12.8-25.6
Daily rainfall class (mm day
)
1
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Percent of the continental USA with a much above
normal proportion of total annual precipitation
from 1-day extreme events (more than 2 inches or
50.8mm)
BW 7
Karl et al. 1996
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The 1997/98 El Niño - strongest on record
BW 14
As shown by changes in sea-surface temperature
(relative to the 1961-1990 average) for the
eastern tropical Pacific off Peru
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Estimate (after Myers) of environmental refugees
in a greenhouse-affected world (by 2050)

Country or region
Refugees
Country or region
Refugees

(millions)

(millions)
Bangladesh
15
Bangladesh
15
Egypt
14
Egypt
14
China
30
China
30
India
India
30
Other Delta Areas and Coastal Zones
10
Other Delta Areas and Coastal Zones
10
Island States
1
Island States
1
Agriculturally-Dislocated Areas
50
Agriculturally-Dislocated Areas
50
Total
150
Total
150
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IPCC Synthesis Report
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What can we do aboutGlobal Warming?
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeThird
Assessment Report 2001

• Scientific assessment includes
• Summary for Policymakers (SPM) 20 pages
• Technical Summary (TS) 60
  pages
• 14 chapters 780 pages
• prepared by 123 Co-ordinating Lead Authors Lead
  Authors, 516 Contributing Authors, 21 Review
  Editors
• 420 Expert Reviewers..
• SPM agreed line by line at Plenary
  Intergovernmental Meeting at Shanghai, January
  2001, with delegates from 99 countries and 50
  scientists representing the Lead Authors.

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IPCC Website

• http//www.ipcc.ch

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UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE
CHANGE Rio de Janeiro June 1992ARTICLE 2
OBJECTIVE

• The ultimate objective of this Convention .... is
  to achieve, . stabilization of greenhouse gas
  concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
  would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
  interference with the climate system.
• Such a level should be achieved within a
  time-frame sufficient
• to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to
  climate change.
• to ensure that food production is not
  threatened, and
• to enable economic development to proceed
  in a sustainable manner.

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Global carbon emissions from fossil fuel
Global carbon emissions from fossil fuel use,
1850 to 1990, and for scenarios to 2100, in
GtC. For each scenario, the range shows the
difference between gross and net emissions. From
IIASA/WEC Global Energy Perspectives 1998.
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Four Principles governing International
Agreements

• Precautionary Principle
• Principle of Sustainable Development
• Polluter Pays Principle
• Principle of Equity

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Carbon Emissions per capita per annum in
2000(tonnes C)

• USA 5.5 UK 2.5 China 0.7
  India 0.3 World Average 1.0

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Carbon dioxide contraction for 450 ppm
convergence by 2030 to globally equal per capita
emissions rights
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Saving Energy in Buildings

• Use of white surfaces to reduce air conditioning
• Low-energy lighting
• Better insulation and control of space heating
• More efficient appliances

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Important Energy Technologies

• Renewable Technologies
• Wind onshore offshoreMarine wave and
  tidalEnergy CropsEnergy from WastePV Solar
• Other Technologies
• Combined Heat and Power
• Carbon Sequestration
• Fuel Cells
• Hydrogen fuel infrastructure
• Decentralised or Local Generation

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Biomass
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Local solar energy supply
Solar cell array
Light
1m2 100 W peak power
T.V.

-
Refrigerator
Car battery
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Energy Supply Shell ScenarioSustained Growth
Scenario
Source Shell International Limited.
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COST OF EMISSIONS REDUCTIONSEstimated Cost of
60 reduction by 2050

• On assumption of average economic growth at
  historic annual rate of 2.25,estimated loss of
  0.02 from the growth rateequivalent to loss of
  6 months GDP growth over 50 yrs
• UK govt Policy Innovation Unit Energy
  Review 2002 para 7.115

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GLOBAL WARMING
Cost of impacts
1 GNP (DCs)
1 GNP (DCs)
2-5 GNP (LDCs)
2-5 GNP (LDCs)
Plus other less quantifiable but important impacts
Plus other less quantifiable but important impacts
Action required
Energy efficiency and conservation
Change to non-fossil-fuel energy
sources Aforestation Limit deforestation
Move to Sustainable Consumption
Cost of action

lt1 GNP

lt1 GNP
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Global Warming Presents a Challenge to

• scientists
• industry and technologists
• governments
• everybody

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Message from Industry

• No single company or country can solve the
  problem of climate change.
• It would be foolish and arrogant to pretend
  otherwise.
• But I hope we can make a difference - not least
  to the tone of the debate - by showing what is
  possible through constructive action.
• John Browne, BP, Berlin, 30 September 1997

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Reasons for optimism
- Commitment of scientific community -
Necessary technology available - Gods
commitment to his creation
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• Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did
  nothing because he could only do a little
• Edmund Burke