Global warming and seed orchards in Sweden

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Global warming and seed orchards in Sweden

• Dag Lindgren
• Department of Forest Genetics and Plant
  Physiology
• Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
• Umeå
• Seed orchard meeting
• IUFRO WP 02-09-01
• Korea, Sept 11, 2009

http//www-genfys.slu.se/staff/dagl/korea09/
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The big picture

• Life is important for climate!
• Human has an accelerating impact on environment
  and climate.
• I read a book this summer, Ward The Medea
  hypothesis. It teaches that Life is
  destabilising climate and self-destructive.
• Back to Nature will not save Civilisation with
  its too large and growing population.
• Humans must manipulate the climate in a wise way.
  
• Seed orchards are an important brick in that
  puzzle.

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How has Sweden prepared for an uncertain future?

• Structuring of long term breeding and testing
• Increased use of seed orchards with robust and
  flexible seeds

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Map of Sweden with heat sum instead of
longitude.The breeding population is structured
in many subpopulations with different targets.
This contributes to gene conservation and
diversity and preparedness for changing
environments
Seed orchards are recruited from several
populations
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To prepare for an uncertain future, efforts
are spread towards sea level and timber limit
more than optimal for a constant environment!
Timber limit
Sea Level
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The recruitment population is tested over a range
of environments around the target environment!
Selection will create more plastic and stable
genotypes than Evolution can do!Evolution knows
only now and here!!!!Tree breeders can do better
than that!
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Seed orchards is one response to an uncertain
future

• Seed orchards are predictable and reproducible.
• Orchard clones are selected from a wide range of
  stands and tested on several different sites and
  recruits from different set of materials. This
  gives seeds suitable for variable conditions.
• A sufficient number of clones (17-25?) guarantees
  genetic diversity and flexibility.

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Predicted environmental changes make seed
orchards more motivated

• Warmer climate reduces problems to produce seeds
  for the harshest sites
• Renewable resources instead of fossil!
• More energy from forest!
• More sequestring of carbon dioxid
• More oxygen supporting life
• Against deforestation
• Symbol for sustainability and trust in future
• Seed orchards can be immediate modified to new
  requirments (by roguing, selective harvest).
• Seed orchard seeds can be used on other places
  than initially planned if environment change.
• The argument that autotoctoneous provenance
  reflects local adaption looses much of its weight
  with global warming and environmental change.

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• Strategy to changing conditions is not mainly a
  question about objective prognosis, it is more
  about
• philosophy
• politics
• polical correctness
• trustworthyness
• safety
• uncertainty of prognosis

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A general strategy to meet uncertainty is
diversification. The future has become more
uncertain, so more diversification is motivated.
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Response to more uncertainty!Breeding materials
are tested over a slightly wider range of
environments!
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Species use may change

• Environmental change, diversification and species
  conservation motivates seed orchards of many
  species.
• Room for low input seed orchards of species with
  low current demand!

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Global warming come to stay

• Global warming has been uncertain now we have
  to deal with it as a matter of fact if we
  believe it or not It will become warmer the
  next 100 years!
• How will and should this affect reforestation,
  forest tree breeding and in particular
  establishment of seed orchards?
• Immediate action seems needed, but how?

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Suggestion for within species decisions for
forestry

• Act now as if temperature will rise two degrees
  between 1991-2090.
• Accept consequences for tempsum, spring
  phenology, etc. (Direct temp related).
• Do not consider other predicted future changes
  for choice of genetic material within species (no
  change for e.g. precipitation, wind,
  continentality, parasites).

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Reason for two degrees/century

• Few scenarios predict less than two degrees rise
  in a century neither for Sweden, nor the world.
• Big enough to have effects in particular if the
  change will be larger, the negative effects will
  be smaller than if no change today.
• Small enough to be safe if temp remains
  constant, the harm will be limited. A global
  warming over all Sweden is not 100 sure!
• A bit conservative, but psychologically better to
  start with actions, which later will be regarded
  as the right direction, than to act so it will be
  judged too radical in a decade.
• Good enough to use immediatly while waiting for
  better guidelines!
• Simple and transparent!

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All do not agree on global warming

• The models do not predict everything correct and
  are thus not perfect.
• There are many quantitative large factors
  affecting e.g. carbon dioxid.
• There are complex interactions.

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The environmental change is very
uncertain!Weather forecasts of temperature one
and two days ahead in my hometown.
Temp at Umeå, actual and predicted one and two
days ahead
Question Why trust in forecasted temperature
rise in a century knowing that predictions two
days ahead have a standard error of 2
degrees? Accurate temperature prognosis is
impossible!!
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The variation between adjacent years is often two
degrees and decade averages vary more than a
degree
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Reasons to wait with reacting on other predicted
effects of clima change

• The temperature is the most evident effect and
  even the size of that change is highly uncertain.
• If other effects are considered, less emphasise
  will be made on temperature.
• The debate would be complex speculative
  depending on specialised experts black box
  dependent not transparent mistakes easier done
  or hidden behind propaganda of intressents or
  idea monglers.
• Other effects are often better considered by
  species change than within species change.

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Why start 1990?

• The period 1961-1990 is a meteorological standard
  period, it is most logic and simple to start from
  1990!
• Our experience on transfers is mainly based on
  before 1990 events. Provenance trials have been
  established and measured mainly 1955-1990.
• Most Swedish plus trees have been selected
  before1990.
• Till 1990 the warming was insignificant, slow
  and well within natural fluctuations.
• Suggested model A continuous change from 1990 to
  2040, one degree in half a century, two in a
  century.

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Red arrow Dags extrapolation for Swedish
global warming
Swedish temp to 2001 Dags extrapolation
seemed an overestimate 2001.
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Red arrow Dags extrapolation for Swedish
global warming
But, Dags extrapolation looks an underestimate
2007
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Two time perspectives

• Forest plantations (recommendations). The
  regeneration is most sensitive the first years,
  the established stand is more plastic. It is
  suggested to assume half a degree temperature
  rise (thus conditions 2018) in planting
  recommendations.
• Seed orchard establishment. It takes decades till
  seed production starts. It is suggested to assume
  one degree temperature rise (conditions 2046) for
  seed orchards planned today.

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How to mimic temperature change?

• Pretend to change the elevation first, thus move
  forest genetic material downward rather than
  southward.
• Logic. Physics says that air cools when lifted!
  And observations say that it is colder at high
  altitudes!
• Temperature in Swedish vegetation period rises
  around 0.6 degree when elevation is reduced 100
  m!
• Thus, reduce elevation from 1990 to the actual
  year
• Thus 3.5 meter/annually
• Or change heat sum correspondingly, but this is
  less transparent.
• Equivalent to keeping the heatsum constant at a
  geographic location!
• Effects of temperature change in Sweden can be
  evaluated from elevational differences in
  existing trials!

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Response to warmingMove the map of Sweden!To
keep the heat sum and latitude, the altitude of
the breeding population targets increases
Map of Sweden
Map of Sweden
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If the average temp changes a degree in Sweden...

• Phenology changes
• The average temperature rises around 5 days
  faster in the spring.
• The average temperature falls around 5 days later
  in autumn.

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• A proper respons to warming is to change species.
  
• Room for optional low input seed orchards of
  emerging species.
• The seed need should be covered in a scenario
  with no warming business as useful, but in that
  scenario the extra seeds could be somewhat less
  intensive.

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• The seed need in seed orchard zones will change
  compared to the plans when seed orchard were
  established. That affects the target area for new
  seed orchards and make revisions of seed orchard
  supply area more radical...

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• In Sweden sites with a difference of 200 meter
  elevation or two latitudes, the annual
  temperature change slightly less than a degree.

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I have calculated how optimal use of some seed
orchard crops would be expected to change by a
warmer climate

• I used a program Planters guide by Skogforsk
  available at the web for predicting production
  of a forest regeration material as a function of
  the latitude and elevation of the planting site.
• Four seed orchards were compared. Elevation was
  kept constant and latitude varied. The value
  where the seed orchard was most superior to the
  best transferred natural population was set to
  100 percent and the production of the seed
  orchards on other latitudes but the same
  elevation was related to that value.
• The program is based on current temperature
  (1990). I used 200 m elevation. When I used lower
  elevations corresponding to the expected higher
  temperature sum 2018 and 2046.

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Scots pine seed orchards, predicted production
in percent of the highest performance compared to
the best provenance at different plantation
latitudes
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• The effects of temperature in this analysis seem
  surprisingly small, but this is probably specific
  for Scots pine in northern Sweden, where climate
  dependent survival is critical.

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Area of seed orchard use

• The recommendations of using seeds from existing
  seed orchards are suggested to be adjusted for
  half a degree warmer climate immediatly.
• This seems usually to have rather small effect,
  in the magnitude avoiding 1-2 percent production
  loss.
• The loss if no climate change occur is small.

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Suggestion for recruitment of clones in Sweden
for a warmer climate

• It seems safer to recruit clones tested at, and
  with origin from, a lower elevation than from
  more southern latitudes. With elevation only heat
  sum changes. With latitude also the light
  climate changes. The southern may be adapted to
  another light climate, with the lower it is only
  the heat.

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End

• Thanks for attention