New Zealand's Climate Change Policies: Past and Future

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New Zealand's Climate Change Policies Past and
Future

• Malcolm Harbrow
• mharbrow_at_gmail.com

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What am I doing here?

• Studying Climate Change Policy for an M. Phil
• Analyse the challenges faced by NZ in meeting its
  Kyoto targets
• Examine NZs climate change policies, with a
  particular focus on recent events
• Assess effectiveness of new polices in meeting
  Kyoto goals, and compare them with discarded ones.

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New Zealand's climate change problem

• Kyoto obliges us to cut emissions to 1990 levels
  over CP1 (2008 - 2012)
• But emissions keep rising

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Sources of emissions
Energy can be further subdivided into Transport
(19.2) and Electricity (9.6)
So its clear what the problem is
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(No Transcript)
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1994 Policy

• Goal stabilise net CO2 emissions at 1990 levels
  by 2000
• 20 of meeting target would be met by emissions
  reductions from
• Voluntary agreements
• Electricity reform
• Energy efficiency
• 80 would be met from forestry
• If targets were not met by mid 1997, a carbon tax
  would be imposed.

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1996 Working Group on CO2 Policy

• Looked at long-term options
• Conclusions
• Regulations dont work
• "specific subsidies or regulatory interventions
  will not, in general, provide a least-cost or
  durable response to reducing Co2 emissions
• Instead, backed an economic instrument

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1999 Domestic Policy Options Statement

• Looked at options for implementing emissions
  trading regime
• Following a business-as-usual 'emissions path'
  prior to 2008 is not a least cost approach to
  meeting our commitments.
• Proposed three possible interim measures to
  bridge the gap until ETS introduced
• forward market
• pilot trading and carbon charge
• carbon charge

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2002 package

• Goal to set emissions on a permanent downward
  path by 2012
• Carbon tax capped at 25/T
• Exemption of agricultural emissions
• Negotiated Greenhouse Agreements for "at-risk"
  industries
• Projects mechanism
• Government maintaining liability for forests, up
  to a deforestation cap of 10.

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Constant features

• Least cost solution
• Reliance on forestry
• Hostility to regulatory measures
• Preference for economic instruments
• Reluctance to actually implement

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2005 The Review

• May 2005 projected balance of units changed from
  55 MTCO2e surplus to 34.6 MTCO2e deficit (now
  41.2 MTCO2e deficit)
• June 2005 Review of climate change policies
  initiated
• September 2005 an election
• December 2005 Carbon tax scrapped

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2006

• No goal, no policy
• Hints of some policies eventually
• A renewables target?
• A carbon tax only on large emitters?
• Energy efficiency standards for cars?
• Biofuels?
• Carbon credit devolution?

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Comparing policies

• Difficult, as they are still being announced
• Review and political reality has effectively
  ended any hope of an economic instrument
• This has helped overcome reluctance to regulate
• New policies almost certain to be less effective
  than old ones.