JUNE 1998

1
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

• JUNE 1998

2
Outline

• BC Economy Overview
• Interesting Statistics
• Industry Outlooks
• Where the jobs are
• Sources
• Handouts
• Questions and Answers

3
Economy

• BC in slow growth mode - close to recession
• Forecast is 0.3 real GDP growth for 1998
• Population growth up 1.5 this year
• Lower net interprovincial migration
• Unemployment forecast to average 9.7 (highest
  since 1993)
• Employment forecast is for small 0.3 gain in 1998

4
Economy

• Job growth expected to come mainly from
  high-tech, tourism, transportation, utilities and
  computer fields. Labour shortages reported in
  high-tech sector.
• Declining exports and lower commodity exports
  hurting employment in lumber, pulp, copper and
  coal operations.
• Vancouver Island Economic Development Association
  looking into promoting positive events that are
  happening in communities rather than a doom and
  gloom vision.

5
Population by Regional District
Census Sub-Division Area
Population
Population

1996
1991
Change
Cowichan Valley Regional District
70,978
60,560
17.2
Nanaimo Regional District
121,783
101,736
19.7
Alberni-Clayoquot Regional District
31,652
31,224
1.4
Comox-Strathcona Regional District
97,666
82,729
18.1
Powell River Regional District
19,936
18,477
7.9
Mount Waddington Regional District
14,601
13,896
5.1
Central Coast Regional District
3,921
3,482
12.6
TOTAL
360,537
312,104
15.5
Source Census 1996 Data
Statistics Canada
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Target Groups
Population by
1991

Target Group
Population
Total Population 15 years
240,570
100.
Persons with Disabilities
29,740
12.4
Visible Minorities
8,585
3.6
Aboriginal Peoples
16,265
6.8
Women
120,435
50.1
Source 1991 Census Data
Statistics Canada
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Unemployment Rates
8
Unemployment Rates by Education Level
25
20
15
10
5
0
Some high
High school
Some post-
Post-
0 - 8 years
University
school
graduate
secondary
secondary
degree
certificate or
diploma
9
Employment Rates by Education Level
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Some high
High school
Some post-
Post-
University
0 - 8 years
secondary
school
graduate
secondary
degree
certificate or
diploma
10
Goods Producing Industries

• Agriculture
• Construction
• Fishing
• Forestry
• Manufacturing
• Mining

11
Service Industries

• Leisure, Accommodation and Food, Entertainment
  Recreation
• Business Services
• Finance Insurance
• Government
• Health and Social Services
• Education
• Sales
• Transportation Communications

12
Reduced Activity in Resource Industries

• Forestry Affects manufacturing
• Mining and processing industries
• Fishing such as
• - Truck manufacturing
• - Wood processing
• - Residential construction

13
Agriculture

• Vancouver Island Feedstock dependent agricultural
  enterprises disappearing
• Rapid growth in horticulture
• Constraints Land, Water
• Opportunities Agri-tourism, Aquaculture, Direct
  consumer sales, Value-added processing, Cranberry
  production

14
Construction/Real Estate

• Housing market activity forecast to decline in
  1998 in BC due to weaker growth in demand
• 10 fewer sales and housing starts forecast for
  BC
• Housing prices projected to decline 3
• Improved affordability due to lower housing
  prices and mortgage rates - best
  since 1987

15
Construction/Real Estate
16
Education

• Reduced funding, education cuts
• Amalgamation of services
• Certification required
• Constant upgrading
• Excess of Teachers

17
Film Industry

• Major films, commercials and documentaries have
  occurred in the last year
• Interest in area is increasing
• Vancouver Island Film Commission actively
  marketing area
• Negotiations - BC Ferries special rates
• Tax breaks for BC Filming

18
Fisheries

• Coho Fishing halted for 1998/99 season
• Canada - U.S. fight on horizon over Coho
• Alaska allows, but will monitor Coho fishery
• DFO announcement in June
• DFO announces 3.46 Million for Vancouver Island
  Conservation projects

19
Forest Sector

• In turmoil in 1997/1998
• Shutdowns/layoffs occurring
• Global competition
• No shortage of qualified trades people
• Lower costs

20
Health

• Government budget constraints
• Change restructuring
• Technological advancement
• Certification required
• Demand for health care increasing
• Public to private health services
• Alternative medicine

21
Mining

• New Provincial initiatives to
• attract investment
• create 22,000 new mining-related jobs over the
  next 10 years
• 22 major operating mines in BC, 2 in our area
• Myra Falls, near Campbell River, produces zinc,
  copper and gold concentrates
• Quinsam Coal, near Campbell River
  produces coal

22
Retail Sector

• Retail sales increased 0.6 in March in BC
• In GVI area, some retail businesses down while
  others the same
• Some hiring expected over the summer months
• Some businesses forced to diversify to survive
  PPWC strike
• Retail sales forecast to increase to just 1.4
  in 1998

23
Tourism

• Tourism is expected to grow in 1998
• Estimated to bring 1 Billion to BC
• Drop in Asian European visitors
• Increase expected in American visitors
• Coho ban expected to have negative impact on
  Sports Fisheries
• Downhill skiing 3rd most popular recreational
  activity among British Columbians

24
Where are the jobs in BCs labour market?
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New economy/hi-tech industries

• Over 20 growth rate in recent years
• Examples health and medical
• health information
• medical devices
• pharmaceuticals
• home health care workers
• cosmetic surgery
• optometrists, laser surgery in Nanaimo and
  Victoria, physiotherapists, chiropractors
• dental hygienists
• biotechnology

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Other growth industries

• Renovations
• Greenhouse vegetables and fruits
• Floriculture (ornamental flowers and plants)
• Ocean-related (engineering, geosciences,
  aquaculture, marine electronics, robotics,
  sub-sea vehicles)
• Environmental pollution-related
• Tourism
• Transportation
• Utilities
• Computer Fields

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Sources

• Credit Union Central of BC
• Statistics Canada
• Vancouver Island Real Estate Board
• Canadian Mortgage Housing Corporation
• Ministry of Finance Corporate Relations
• BC Stats
• Human Resource Centres of Canada
• Ministry of Agriculture, Mining Forestry
• Workshare Policy Advisory Board
• Chambers of Commerce
• Employers
• Local Governments
• Film Associations

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• Produced by the
• Labour Market Information Unit
• Human Resource Centre of Canada
• Nanaimo, BC

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Any Questions?