Title: Climate Change and Coastal
1Climate Change and Coastal Small Island
Destinations
- Susanne Becken John E. Hay
- Lincoln University New Zealand
- 15 March 2007, Paris
2Overview
- Introduction
- Climate change impacts
- Sea level rise
- Coastal erosion
- Tropical storms
- Coral reefs
- Water resources
- Adaptation measures
3Islands
- Dependent on sea and vulnerable to changes in
marine environment - Limited range of resources
- Sensitive ecosystems and low carrying capacities,
biodiversity hotspots - Specialised economies, small size, limited
markets, isolated - Increasingly dependent on tourism
Biodiversity hot spot Mediterranean
4Climate Change-Tourism Hotspots
Western Europe By end of century heatwaves as
warm and as dry as 2003 will occur every 2nd year
China Precipitation decreases by up to 20
Northeastern USA Decrease in winter snowfalls
and in extreme cold spells
Alpine Europe ¾ of glaciers lost by 2050
Southeastern USA, Mexico Caribbean More
destructive storms, especially until the 2030s
Northern and Eastern Mediterranean Increased
frequency of heat waves and drought
Islands in South Pacific Indian
Oceans Increased topical cyclone intensity ? 5
to 20 increase in maximum wind speeds
5Sea level rise
6Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) Global Sea
Level Rise Local EffectsGlobal
EustaticLocal Tectonic Compaction Post
Glacial Rebound Subsidence .
(1)Thermal expansion of water (2) Alpine
glaciers (3) Ice Sheets Greenland, and
Antarctica
7Sea Level Rise over the last 24,000 years
8Average Sea Level Rise over the last 120 years
9Local Sea Level Rise
- Projections of the regional distribution of sea
level rise required for adaptation planning.
10Rates of sea level rise
- Sea level has changed over millions of years
under natural forcing - Current rates of eustatic sea level rise are
between 1.2 to 2.0 mm/yr - There is potential for catastrophic sea level
rise likelihoods are uncertain at this stage
11Instabilities in the Cryosphere
Antarctic Peninsula West Antarctic Ice Sheet
Greenland Ice Sheet Arctic Sea Ice
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13Coastal Erosion
14Coastal erosion causes and effects
Source Seekles, 2004
15- 71 millions inhabitants living in European
coastal municipalities in 2001 - 16 of EU25 population within 1 of the EU
territory) - 500 billions euros of capital invested within 500
meters from the coastline - Total coastline of the EU25 100925 km
16Coastal zones and tourism
- High concentration of tourism accommodation on
the coast (e.g. 90 in Tunisia) - High density development
- Modification of natural coastline
17Examples from the Red Sea
Oberoi Sahl Hashish
Marriott Hurghada
Source Hassan, 2004
18Tropical storms
19Hurricane Ivan - 2004
- A category 4 hurricane system reached Grenada
in September 2004. Winds of over 140 mph, damage - 28 persons killed
- 90 of hotel rooms damaged or destroyed,
totalling US108 million - Heavy damage to eco-tourism and cultural
heritage sites - 90 of housing stock damaged
- Telecommunication losses equivalent to 13 of
GDP - Losses in the agricultural sector equivalent to
10 of GDP - Damage to electricity installations amounting to
9 of GDP and - Overall damages estimated at US 824 million, or
2x current GDP.
20Hurricane Wilma, 2005Cozumel, Mexico
21Cyclones 1990-1999, Fiji
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24Tourist safety
- Implications for destination attractiveness
- Perception is reality
- Time of travel (seasons)
- Insurance claims?
25Coral reefs
26Multiple stress factors
- High nutrient contents
- Turbidity and sedimentation
- Fishing and physical damage
- An increase in sea level and warmer water
temperatures - Ocean acidity
gt As a stress response, corals expel the
symbiotic zooxanthellae from their tissues
27Bleaching key points (Source M. Eakin NOAA
Coral Reef Watch)
- Corals are mineral, animal, AND vegetable
- Hot water bleaches corals
- Corals may die after bleaching
- Diseases follow many warming/bleaching stress
events
28Ocean Acidity
CO2(atm) CO2(aq) CO2 H2O H2CO3
(carbonic acid - lower pH, more acidic)
Impacts Calcifying organisms (corals, shellfish,
specific groups of phytoplankton) - increased
difficulty of forming CaCO3 shells reduced
ability of coral reefs to colonise new
areas Non-calcifying organisms - ????? Higher
trophic levels - ?????
29From SCOR/IOC 2004
30Source Riebesell et al. 2000
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33Source R. Buddemeier, LOICZ
34Water availability
35Water consumption by tourists
- A tourist consumes around 550 L per day a
Tunisian consumes only 25 L - In Tunisia, water can make up 15 of costs in a
hotel - Tourism contributes about 1 - 6 to Tunisias
water consumption - A golf course consumes 10.000 to 15.000 m3 of
water per hectare and year
36Water is a necessary resource
37Adaptation measures
38Risk-based Approach to Adaption
Vulnerability Assessment
Adaptation
39Adaptation measures
Hard structures, e.g. Sea walls Example from
Italy - Ravenna
Sand deficit
Hotel built on the beach
Sand accumulation due to breakwaters
40Example from Fiji Coral Coast resort
41Beach nourishment
Example from Tunisia - Djerba
42Infrastructure planning/ building
- Coastal Highways Base design on predictions of
local RSLR (difficult to retrofit), especially if
evacuation route - Airport design to consider
SLR, e.g. Federated States of Micronesia
43Water management
- Water conservation (e.g. irrigation)
- Storage tanks, rainwater collectors
- Flood management
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45Protection of coral reefs
- Control of pollution sewage treatment
- No anchoring of boats
- Dive instructor education
- Tourist education and supervision
- Coral replanting?
46Implementation Principles
- all activities to be undertaken in an inclusive,
transparent and participatory manner - wherever possible, existing information and other
resources are to be used - local experts should work along side and at times
lead their international counterparts and - all outcomes should have high relevance to key
stakeholders, they should add value to current
and planned initiatives, and they should be
sustainable. - the methods, tools and findings must be
replicable and transferable
47A few words about
- Greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation
48Simple geography
- Source countries and tourist destinations gt
long-distance air travelgt significant CO2
emissions
49What are the drivers of in-country emissions?
Example of transport and accommodation in New
Zealand and Fiji
50Transport choices by tourists in Fiji
51Conclusion
- Islands and coastal areas are very vulnerable to
climate change impacts - Tourism is extremely important to many island
destinations and coastal zones - Adaptation measures can reduce the risk win-win
measures should be implemented - Long-distance destinations also have to face
their contribution to climate change
52Thank you, any questions?