Title: AsiaITS
1Institute of Transportation StudiesUniversity of
California, Davis
Hydrogen as a Future Fuel Insights from the H2
Pathways Program at UC Davis
Prof. Joan Ogden presented at the Lecture Series
on Energy University of California Davis,
CA November 8, 2006
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4GTC/yr
550
450
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6H2 OFFERS MULTIPLE SOCIETAL BENEFITS
- H2 is one of the only long term fuel options that
offers radical reductions in - GHG emissions
- Air pollutant emissions
- and
- Diverse primary supply for fuels
- Battery EVs also offer these benefits
- Biofuels offer GHG emission reductions, some air
pollutant reduction and supply diversity benefits
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8Barriers to a Hydrogen Economy
- current lack of a widespread H2 infrastructure
- current high cost of H2 end-use technologies
- Technical maturity need to develop emerging tech
and adapt current H2 technologies for a H2 energy
economy - Chicken Egg Problem for vehicles. (More
generally, problem of matching H2 supply and
demand during transition.) - lack of policies reflecting the external costs of
energy
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11TECHNICAL CHALLENGES (1)
- Fuel cells
- Cost Current automotive fuel cells are expensive
(FCVs 1 million) if mass produced FC would
cost 4 X gasoline engine - Durability Lifetime of PEM fuel cells must
increase 2000 h -gt 5000 h - System issues Heat and water management
-
12Durability of PEMFCs is improving
Cost is decreasing
http//www.ballard.com/be_an_investor Info on
stack costs and durability from Ballard website
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17TECHNICAL CHALLENGES (3)
18H2 could be produced at competitive costs (long
term, large scale)
19BP Carbon Sequestration project in Scotland
http//www.greencarcongress.com/2005/11/bp_to_doub
le_in.html
2017 Countries Have National Hydrogen Energy
Programs
President Bush announces FreedomCAR program,
State of the Union Address, January 28, 2003.
Commits 1.4 B over 5 years
European Commission President Romano Prodi,
recently launched The European Hydrogen and Fuel
Cell Technology, 2003
21Illinois
Upper Midwest
Michigan H2 Highway, SE Michigan April 2005
New York
H2 Initiatives in 30 states
Florida H2 Highway April 2005 Tampa
-gtOrlando
Source National Hydrogen Association
http//www.hydrogenus.com/stateInits.asp
22CALIFORNIA HYDROGEN HIGHWAY NETWORK
- Provide H2 fuel to vehicles
statewide by 2010 - Public/private partnership
- 50/50 cost share on stations
- 10,000 incentive for H2 vehicles
- Leverage ongoing activities
- Reduce GHG emissions 30 relative to gasoline
cars - Encourage use of renewable energy for H2
- 6.5 million in 2006
23THE DEBATE ABOUT HYDROGEN
Bright or Bleak?
Hype or Hope?
Hybrids Not Hydrogen
24Petroleum Prices (EIA)
25Progress in synergistic technologies
- Wind power
- Biomass Gasification
- Carbon Sequestration
- Hybrid vehicle drive trains
- And in competing technologies
- Batteries (and plug-in hybrids)
- Biofuels
26 hydrogen ethanol
27In Publics Mind, Hydrogen Now Has 2 Strong
Competitors
- Cellulosic ethanol (trees, switch grass, etc)
- Battery electric vehicles (and plug-in hybrids)
with low-carbon grid electricity
Has public opinion swung too far toward
biofuels and PHEVs? Has informed opinion
followed (or led) public opinion?
28The Dynamic Context for Hydrogen
- Growing imperative for alternative fuels
- Oil supply
- Climate Change.
- Search for silver bullet by politicians
- In 2003 H2 was widely seen as the end-game
- Better understanding of issues for FCVs.
Projections for 2012 2015 FCV commercialization
more realistic - Many stil see H2 as long-term option, seek near
term strategy. - Now several options are widely discussed.
29Hydrogen Pathways Program-UC Davis Transportation
and the Hydrogen EconomyPathways and Strategies
- Multi-year interdisciplinary research program
(began 2003) - Strategies and Pathways for transportation sector
Hydrogen - 21 sponsors automakers, energy firms, government
- Research
- Public Outreach
- Education
30Key Questions for H2 in Transportation
- Who Will Buy a Hydrogen Car and Why?
- What Would a Hydrogen Infrastructure Look Like?
(And where will the Hydrogen come from?) - How and When Could We Make a Transition to
Hydrogen? - What are the Societal Costs and Benefits of
Hydrogen (Compared to Alternatives)? - What are Policy and Business Strategies for
Hydrogen? What Should We Do Now?
31Lessons from HEV buyers for H2 and Fuel Cell Veh.
(Kurani, Heffner)
Who Will Buy a H2 Car and Why?
- Its about more than economics and just saving
money - Cars are symbols
- FCVs Must Offer Clear Symbolic Meanings to
Distinguish Them - FCV (as well as Sales, Service, and Refueling)
Must Reinforce - Meanings and their Personal Significance
- FCV (Sales, Service, Refueling) Should
- Foster Communication (Car Owner)
- Be Easily Distinguished from Other Vehicles
- Be Easily Connected to its Owner
- Foster Pro-FCV Voices in Discourse (Credibility)
-
-
32WHERE WILL H2 COME FROM? Annual Energy Outlook
2006 with Projections to 2030
DOE Scenario 10 million H2 vehicles in 2025 if
all H2 from NG
http//www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/gas.html
33WHERE WILL THE H2 COME FROM?
- Increase in resource consumption for h2
production for vehicles not likely to be a
significant factor for some time - The source of H2 primarily depends on regional
demand and supply factors (and policy). - Diversity of supply (feedstocks) could reduce the
burden (and risk) for any one feedstock
34What Will a H2 Infrastructure Look Like?
35Analysis of H2 Delivery Systems UCD Idealized
City Model (Inputs population density, city
size, of H2 stations)
Source Yang and Ogden, in press IJHE, 2006
36Lowest Cost Delivery Mode to Network of Stations
Depends on
- City size and density
- Scale of demand (market fraction)
- Size and of refueling stations
L
P
L
LH2 Truck pipeline
P
Source Yang and Ogden, in press IJHE, 2006
37San Diego Real-City Pipeline Network
Oceanside
Escondido
El Cajon
San Diego
La Mesa
Chula Vista
Mexico
Source Yang, Nicholas and Ogden, NHA, 2006
38Renewable H2 from Agricultural Wastes Rice
Straw Case Study (N. Parker)
- Design optimal infrastructure for producing H2
from dispersed waste biomass resources. - Rice Straw
- Regionally significant resource
- Capable of supporting about 250,000 FCVs
- Potential for competitive near to mid term
renewable H2
39H2 from Rice Straw Optimal System Design 25 of
Light Duty Vehicles use H2
50 rice straw 169,171 kg/day LH2 Truck
Deliv 3.4/kg
40H2 TRANSITIONHOW LONG WILL IT TAKE?WHERE WILL
H2 COME FROM?HOW MUCH WILL IT COST?HOW WILL IT
HAPPEN?
41What Can Gasoline History Teach Us About H2?100
Years of Gasoline Retailing (Melaina)
42History Reveals a Phased Introduction of
Different Refueling Methods
43Getting started How many H2 stations do we need
for customer convenience? Geographic Information
System (GIS) Analysis of Refueling Station Siting
and sizing
Source Nicholas, Handy and Sperling, 2004.
44Sacramento County Analyses
45H2 at a relatively small fraction of existing
stations could offer convenience gasoline
46Visualizing Transition to a Coal-Based H2
Infrastructure w/ CO2 Capture Sequestration
Ohio Case Study (N. Johnson et al.)
Identify Shortest Pathways Between Demand Centers
and Coal Facilities
Optimal Supply Network
GIS Database
Brine Well (CO2 Sequestration Site)
47Modeling H2 Transition Dynamics
- HIT (Hydrogen Infrastructure Transition) Model
(D.Z.Lin) - Consider cost, emissions, travel time
- Geographic specific
- Dynamic programming
- Considers optimal build-up in space and time
48Hydrogen Infrastructure Transitions Model
Results
transition pattern
demand
?
HIT
road network
cost cash flows
traffic flow
optimal sequential decisions
H2 pricing
facility unit cost
time value fcn
carbon emission
CO2 cost
discount rate
others
49Optimal Decisions Transition from Distributed
to Central Production
50Optimal Decisions Implementing Carbon
Sequestration
51H2 Pricing Strategy for 12 IRR
- Price H2 higher initially to pay for more costly
early infrastructure - Lower price over time
- 12 IRR at 3/kg for first 10 years 2/kg for
next 40 years. - About 1.2/kg from 2060 on
- Lower than other estimates?
- High demand density in Beijing
- Optimization
- 0.7 location factor
3.98 /kg equiv, assume 2x fuel econ for FCV
4.5
4
3.5
3
1.64 /kg, CS-Coal-F-Seq (NRC NAE, 2004)
2.5
Hydrogen Price (/kg)
2
1.5
1
1.99 /gal, 93, Beijing, March 2006
0.5
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
52Lessons from H2P Transition Studies
- What is required to initiate a H2 transition?
- H2 vehicle must offer unique benefit to consumers
- Adequate consumer convenience if H2 offered at a
small fraction of todays gasoline stations. - History of early gasoline infrastructure suggests
a range of possible early supply pathways - Will H2 replicate the gasoline system? New
interactions w/electricity? New paradigms?
53Lessons from H2P Transition Studies
- How might the system evolve?
- Depends on geographic factors, energy prices,
policy, technology. Site specific! - Distributed v. central H2 production?
- In most cities, distributed hydrogen production
is lowest cost in early stages, but system
generally evolves toward central production, as
the demand grows. - What is the delivery system end state? LH2?
Pipelines? Mix? - Depends on geographic density of demand, energy
prices, scale. - Onsite, central with trucks match growing demand
better during transition (compared to building
pipeline network)
54Lessons from H2P Transition Studies
- Fossil -gt Low-C supply? (role of policy)
- Low carbon sources become lowest cost option in
carbon-constrained world, but policy is needed - Fast growth can gt period of higher C emissions
unless policy keeps up with market - Renewable supplies (biomass gasification) can
become competitive in mid term - Carbon Capture and Sequestration is key for coal,
but needs large scale and carbon policy - Scale Economies Local -gt Regional -gt National
- Sparse city network of H2 stations plus a few
stations on interstates may be sufficient for
convenience - Regional supply can give lower costs because of
scale economies in production and storage.
55Lessons from H2P Transition Studies
- How much will it cost?
- In mid to long term delivered hydrogen costs
become cost competitive with gasoline (cents/km) - There may be pricing strategies for hydrogen that
yield a good rate of return throughout a
transition. - Steady-state infrastructure models tend to
underestimate the cost of hydrogen during a
transition. - Do not account for under-utilization of capital
- Pipelines happen too soon
- Central plants displace distributed too soon
- Trade-off between underutilization of capital and
scale economies
56Questions Going Forward
- What are the best regional strategies toward
low-C H2 systems? - H2 Interactions with rest of energy system
- Merchant H2 and refinery
- Electricity
- Natural gas
- How does the cost of H2 transition compare to,
interact with other fuels? Compare fuel/vehicle
pathways
57Questions Going Forward
- How are decisions made during transition?
- Consumer behavior
- Energy supply companies
- Automakers
- Competition among firms
- Policy
- What are potential impacts of technology
advances? - H2 storage
- FCVs
- Low-C H2 supply
58Cross-cutting issues (1) Thoughts about H2
Transition
- H2 transition gt Multiple transitions (and many
agents) - Vehicle technology (FC, H2 storage)
- Supply infrastructure
- New, low carbon primary supply
- H2 transition could impact the entire energy
system - Some first steps of these transitions are
underway (though not exclusively tied to H2) - Rationale is the unique societal and consumer
benefits H2 and FCs might offer not H2 itself.
Hydrogen is part of a larger trend toward
decarbonization of energy and more efficient use
of resources.
59Cross-cutting issues (2)
- H2 will take time
- There is no silver bullet for transportation
- Efficiency is the first step on the path toward
any sustainable transportation future - Technologies being developed for electric sector
can be key for H2 as well
60Cross-cutting issues (3)The need for durable
commitments (for at least 15-20 years or more)
- Policy makers Address Climate change and oil
security - Consumers To buy based on that certain je ne
sais quoi captured now by HEVs and in future by
H2 and FCVs? - Automakers To mass produce H2 vehicles
- Energy suppliers To build H2 infrastructure
- This will take a while and some real
- Several actors will have to commit together. Who
will take the risk?
61HOW SOON COULD H2 MAKE A MAJOR DIFFERENCE?
- Time to change energy system decades.
- H2 end-use technologies need more development
before entering mass markets, and time to
penetrate markets. - It will be several decades before hydrogen could
reduce emissions and oil use on a global scale.
(local impacts sooner) - Beyond 2025, potential for large impact of H2
technologies on reducing emissions. - Potential to transform energy production and use
62Role of Government
- Early Stages (now)
- Participate in and fund demonstration projects,
public education and outreach - Co-Fund high risk / high benefit research and
development - Assist industry with codes and standards
development and implementation - Next Stage
- Continued co-funding of industry and academic
RDD - Buy-down incentives for consumers, govt
purchases of vehicles, subsidies for
infrastructure - Coordinate infrastructure development with
industry (avoid the Chicken and Egg problem) - Consistent and positive messages, and stable
policy to encourage private investment
63H2 Pathways Research Personnel
- H2 Research Track Directors
- Dr. C.J. Brodrick, Manager, Heavy Duty Fuel Cell
Vehicle Program - Dr. Andy Burke, Director, EV Power Systems
- Dr. Mark Delucchi, Research Scientist
- Mr. Anthony Eggert, Associate Research Director
- Dr. Paul Erickson, Assistant Professor
(Mechanical Engineering) - Mr. Nils Johnson, Program Manager, Integrated H2
Infrastructure - Dr. Andy Hargadon, Professor, Graduate School of
Management - Dr. Ken Kurani, Research Engineer
- Dr. Marshall Miller, Manager, Hydrogen Bus
Program - Dr. Tim Lipman (Joint Research Faculty, UC
Berkeley) - Dr. Joan Ogden, Associate Professor Energy
Policy Analyst - Dr. Daniel Sperling, Director of ITS-Davis
- Dr. Tom Turrentine, Research Anthropologist
- Dr. Chris Yang, Systems Analysis Research
- Key Researchers
- Reid Heffner, PhD Student Jon Hughes, PhD
Student Julia Wang, Ph.D. Student - Ryan McCarthy, PhD Student Jonathan Weinert, PhD
Student Antoine Simmonet, Visting Scholar
64H2 Pathways Program Sponsors
Indicates full program sponsor with Advisory
Board position
65Whats Next?UC Davis STEPS ProgramSustainable
Transportation Energy Pathways
- Dr. Joan Ogden
-
- University of California at Davis
- Institute of Transportation Studies
66Research Scope Enable Consistent Comparisons
- Three promising alternative pathways have been
identified - The fourth pathway represents both
business-as-usual and new developments within
conventional energy infrastructures (tar sands,
synfuels, etc.)