Avian Influenza A H5N1

1
(No Transcript)
2
(No Transcript)
3
1918 Spanish Flu

• 20 - 40 of population fell ill
• gt 40M deaths
• 2-5 mortality

4
US Life Expectancy
5
Who is Impacted
Characteristics Of Seasonal Influenza
Morbidity
Morbidity
Age
Characteristics Of 1918 Influenza
Age
6
1918 Pandemic

• Spread fast
• Millions died within months

7
Before You Leave

• Basic knowledge about pandemics
• Understand pandemic is a serious threat
• How to plan at home, at work, in the community
• Desire to learn more
• Willingness to share info
• Motivation to act

8
What is a Pandemic?

• Pandemics are a reality that occur naturally --
  -- 2-3 times in the 20th century
• Pandemic occurs when a flu or other virus shifts
  into a new virus that our bodies are not able to
  fight off
• World-wide
• H5N1, TB, other illnesses are all candidates

9
(No Transcript)
10
Why Concerned Now

• Experts agree pandemic is a matter of WHEN, not
  IF.
• 2017 longest ever without a pandemic
• H5N1 (Avian Flu or Bird Flu) is a potential
  candidate

11
Avian Influenza

• Disease in birds
• LPAI
• HPAI H5, H7
• Carriers
• Migratory waterfowl
• Current H5N1
• Near panzootic
• gt200M poultry
• gt10B

www.avian-influenza.com
12
H5N1 Transmission

• Bird ? Human
• Handling live diseased birds
• Preparing dead diseased birds
• Consuming undercooked poultry
• Human ? Human
• Rare
• 2004 Thailand
• 2005 China
• 2006 Indonesia
• 2007 Pakistan

www.bbc.co.uk
13
H5N1 Concern

• Similar traits to 1918
• Not going away
• gt ?? mortality

14
H5N1 Concern

• Similar traits to 1918
• Not going away
• gt 60 mortality

15
DOH Planning Assumptions

• Susceptibility will be universal
• Clinical disease attack rate 30
• Highest rate most likely among school-aged
  children(40)
• Asymptomatic individuals
• 50 of ill will seek outpatient medical care
• Typical incubation period 2 days

16
DOH Planning Assumptions, continued

• Outbreaks will occur at the same time across
  communities in the U.S.
• On average, infected persons will infect 2 other
  people
• A pandemic outbreak will last 6-8 weeks
• No vaccine for 6-8 months
• Residents will be asked to stay in their homes
  for a significant amount of time

17
Who is Coming?
18
Consider this

• Any community that fails to prepare with the
  expectation that the federal government will, at
  the last moment, be able to come to the rescue
  will be tragically wrong.
• -Michael Leavitt, Secretary, U.S.
  Department of Health and Human
  Services

19
Exaggerating?
20
(No Transcript)
21
Hopeless?
22
St. Louis, 1918 Pandemic Control Measures

• Closed all schools
• Shut down theaters
• Barred public gatherings, such as banquets
• Shuttered churches
• Stopped dancing in hotels and cafes
• Suspended hospital visits
• Kept children from their playgrounds and library
  reading rooms
• Canceled conventions
• Closed streetcars to straphangers
• Cancelled Halloween functions
• St. Louis Post Dispatch

23
Cases of Influenza
24
Cases of Influenza
Time
25
Cases of Influenza
Time
26
Social Collapse
Cases of Influenza
Municipal Service Collapse
Time
27
Social Collapse
Cases of Influenza
Municipal Service Collapse
Time
28
Social Collapse
Cases of Influenza
Municipal Service Collapse
Time
29
Two Tiers of Preparation
Pharmaceutical Non-Pharmaceutical
30
(No Transcript)
31
Table 2. Summary of Community Mitigation
Strategies by Severity
32
CDC Recommendations

• Isolation and Treatment of Ill Persons
• Voluntary Home Quarantine
• Dismissal from School and Closure of Child Care
• Social Distancing Measures for both Children and
  Adults

33
Trigger
..a laboratory-confirmed cluster of infection
with a novel influenza virus and evidence of
community transmission

• ..the arrival and transmission of pandemic
  virus

34
Are You Ready?

• Work
• Home
• Community

35
What Can Your Business Do?

• Discuss at management levels how a pandemic might
  impact your business overall
• How would your company handle a 30-40 reduction
  in staff?
• Create a pandemic plan
• Prepare your employees

36
What Can Your Business Do?

• Create a Staffing Plan
• Assume 30-40 absenteeism and identify the
  following
• Critical and non-critical functions
• Equipment required for critical functions
• Alternate work sites/work from home
• Back-up staffing plan for critical functions
• Database of employee skill sets
• Address HR issues

37
What Can Your Business Do?

• Employee Education/Awareness
• Create communications plan regarding the
  companys pandemic plan
• Ensure employee personal preparedness
• Take advantage of educational opportunities Red
  Cross, health departments, PandemicPrep.Org

38
What Can Your Family Do?

• Store at least 2-3 weeks of food, water and
  medicine for your family.
• Consider buying Personal Protective Equipment
  (PPE) masks and gloves
• Learn and utilize
  proper hygiene

39
What Can Your Family Do?

• Plan for how a pandemic might impact your life
• How will it impact your job and your company?
• Will you be able to work from home?
• If you have young children, what will you do if
  schools and day cares close?
• Do your company and school even have a plan?
• Do you have money and food reserves to survive
  for a time on your own?

40
What Can Your Community Do?

• Develop a plan for your community
• Consider when schools should be closed.
• Develop communications plan
• Begin working with utilities and other
  infrastructure
• Consider impact of 30-40 loss of staff to
  critical services
• Police and Fire Departments
• Trash Pickup
• Communicate with other State and local agencies
  to coordinate responses
• Develop a community response plan

41
What Can You Do?

• Learn more
• www.pandemicprep.org
• http//mrce.wustl.edu/
• Guest Lectures
• 2007 Steve Lawrence
• www.pandemicflu.gov
• Google Ready in 3
• Become an advocate

42
What Can You Do?

• Work with

43
PandemicPrep.Org Mission
Through education and planning, ensure St. Louis
area businesses, organizations and communities
are prepared to survive a pandemic
44
www.PandemicPrep.Org

• Speakers
• Online Resource Guide
• Past Presentations
• Weblinks
• Quarterly Conferences

45
How did we do?