Meteorological Service of Canada

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Meteorological Service of Canada

• Positive Impacts of AMDAR Assimilation Studies
  at the Canadian Meteorological Centre

Gilles Fournier Chair, Canadian AMDAR
Implementation Team

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Wind Speed analysis for AIREP only cycle, no
ACARS (1999121518)
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Wind speed analysis for AIREP, ACARS and AMDAR
cycle (1999121518)
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Wind speed difference map (1999121518)
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18 Dec 01 27 Jan 02 Experiments

• 82 forecasts
• 3 experiments
• No Aircraft Wind data
• No Aircraft Temperature data
• No Aircraft data at all
• Short-range forecast results comparison to
  control run
• Mid-range forecast results analyzed as
  histograms 100 x (RMS experiment - RMS control)
  / RMS control
• deterioration by removing some types of data

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Short Range Forecasts Results

• Significant impact from aircraft data in 6-week
  assimilation experiment (as much as 15 on wind
  at jet level)
• Clear impact from wind data alone, as well as
  from temperature data alone
• Impact from wind more important than from
  temperature
• Removing wind has largest impact on wind, while
  removing temperature has largest impact on
  temperature
• Impact on temperature of removing wind, is larger
  than impact on wind of removing temperature
• Combined impact of removing wind and temperature
  is larger than sum of individual impacts

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Medium Range Forecasts Summary

• Measurable impact up to 96-hr (day 4)
• Larger impact from wind than temperature
• Impact of aircraft data not as large as previous
  studies
• better use of satellite and surface data in new
  3D-Var
• error growth in CMC NWP model too large in
  medium-range
• possibly not enough aircraft data over Pacific
  ocean
• 6-week period possibly too short for medium-range
• Larger impact of aircraft data in short-range
  (6-hr) partly related to fact that there are no
  U/A soundings at 06/18Z, and verification is done
  at 00/12Z.
• Results vary with periods chosen, variables, or
  levels verified

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16 June 31 July 02 Experiments
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Time Series 24-hr Forecast Verification
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Future AMDAR Work at CMC

• Evaluate impact on precipitation forecasts
• Verification against analyses
• Evaluate impact of Canadian AMDAR data
• Evaluate contribution from Ascent/Descent data
• Revisit the thinning algorithm density, time
  window
• Evaluation and impact of moisture data?
• 4D-Var late 2003 need to reconsider use
  (thinning) of all data

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CMC Monitoring Web Site

• http//www.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmcdev/data_monitoring
• User monitoring
• Password CMC

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• Canadian AMDAR Program A Business Case to NAV
  CANADA by SypherMueller

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List of International Activities

• Active contributing member of Panel
• Canada hosted 5th Panel meeting and an AMDAR
  Science and Technology Workshop
• On-going close collaboration with US and E-AMDAR
• Participate at AEEC and aviation industry
  meetings
• Involve a number of countries in CAPIT Team
• Presented papers at international conferences
• Lead on the development of alternative AMDAR
  technologies for regional airlines
• Make our developments available to all
• Provide helpful services data quality
  monitoring, web-site access, impact studies,
  operational use of AMDAR data, scientific and
  technical studies

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Contact

• Gilles Fournier
• Chair, Canadian AMDAR ImplementationTeam
• Meteorological Service of Canada,
• Environment Canada
• 373 Sussex Drive, E-124
• Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
• K1A 0H3
• Tel [phone] Fax [phone]
• e-mail gilles.fournier_at_ec.gc.ca