Risk Management for Highway Design

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Risk Management for Highway Design

• Jeffrey Shaw, P.E.
• Safety Design TST

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(No Transcript)
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RISK

• A factor, element, or course involving
  uncertainty regarding harm, loss, danger or damage

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Risk Management Test for Design

• Does your agency have adequate and dynamic
  processes in place to identify existing and new
  risks faced?
• Does your agency have the right balance of
  arrangements in place to deal with these risks?
• Does your agency have an adequate framework for
  risk analysis and evaluation to support
  decision-making processes?

Source "Guide to Risk Assessment and Allocation
for Highway Construction Management",
FHWA-PL-06-032
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Risk Management Characteristics

• Explicitly addresses uncertainty
• Based on the best available information
• Part of the decision-making process
• Systematic, structured, and an integral part of
  organizational processes
• Dynamic, iterative, responsive to change, and
  capable of continual improvement and enhancement
• Accounts for human factors
• Transparent and inclusive

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Risk-oriented Highway Design

• Not a new concept
• May involve different approaches and viewpoints
• Who or what is at risk and what is the core
  motivation
• Safety of Facility Users (i.e. motorists,
  pedestrians, etc.)?
• Road Agency (tort liability concerns)?
• Underlying theme is addressing the risk
• Implication is that relying solely on standards
  does not guarantee a facility free of risk
• Identifying/defining the risk is essential for
  managing the risk

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Fundamental Aspects

• Understanding Design Risk involves
• Knowing the basis and assumptions underlying the
  standards
• Defining the conditions of the project
• Physical
• Traffic
• Safety

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Identify Characterize the Degree of Risk

• What are the variables that influence Risk?
• Exposure
• Traffic Volume
• Location
• Duration
• Deviation from Nominal
• Degree of variance
• Severity of Outcome
• Possible worst-case scenario

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Assessing Design Risks

• Assessing the probability and severity of adverse
  consequences associated with activities,
  recommendations or designs.
• Does not need to be a complicated quantitative
  assessment, but rather a practical assessment
  based on experience, engineering judgment and
  historical standard of practice.
• To the extent possible, risks should be
  quantified, both on the basis of their potential
  probability and for their potential consequences.

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Risk-based Safety Analysis Tools

• Safety Effects Studies
• horizontal alignment
• vertical alignment
• cross-section
• intersections
• IHSDM (ihsdm.org)
• Includes crash prediction, design consistency and
  capacity calc
• Highway Safety Manual

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Risk-based Safety Analysis Tools

• Latest Research and Best Practices
• Design-stage Road Safety Audits

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Safety Performance Evolution

• NOMINAL SAFETY
• examined in reference to compliance with
  standards, warrants, guidelines and sanctioned
  design procedures

• SUBSTANTIVE SAFETY
• actual or expected crash frequency and severity
  for a highway or roadway segment or intersection

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RSAs Add Value to a Project

• Compromises and constraints are a normal part of
  transportation budgeting
• RSAs demonstrate the safety implications of
  roadway elements
• RSAs ensure that safety is an explicit
  consideration, and that safety does not fall
  through the cracks
• RSA focus corresponds to stage of project

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Early Stage RSAs

• PRECONSTRUCTION
• planning / feasibility
• preliminary (draft) design
• detailed design
• CONSTRUCTION
• work zones
• pre-opening
• EXISTING
• in-operation reviews

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Integrating RSA VE

• Consider the sequence scenarios of conducting
  both an RSA and a VE study on the same project
• Possible Outcomes

• RSA conducted before VE
• VE conducted before RSA
• RSA and VE conducted in concert, with separate
  teams of individuals

• http//safety.fhwa.dot.gov/rsa/resources.htm

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Considering Risk of Design Exceptions

• Evaluating design exceptions in determining
  whether
• An appropriate criterion for a CORRIDOR is less
  than the minimum normally applicable (design
  speed, roadway width)
• An appropriate design value to use at a LOCATION
  is less than the minimum standard (curve radius,
  gradient)

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Common Denominator of Highway Design

• Effectively dealing with the TRADE-OFFS
• Adding lanes vs. minimizing property takes
• Clear zones vs. preserving mature trees
• Property access vs. high mobility
• Designing for vehicle traffic vs. accommodating
  other user groups

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Design Controls with High-Reward Potential

• Functional Classification
• Design Speed
• Design Traffic
• Design Vehicle
• Design User

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Design Risk Management Process
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Link Between Risk Mgt and Flexible Design

• Helps deliver both a PROJECT and a PROGRAM
• Underlies a National Priority (FHWA and AASHTO)
• Allows consideration of a wider range of
  alternatives and design options
• Facilitates cost-effectiveness, with emphasis on
  increasing safety efficiency

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Recognition of Risk-Reward Basis

• It is not feasible or intended for highway
  projects to be entirely risk-free, as there are
  potential rewards to the project when risk is
  taken.

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Using Risk Mgt to Improve Design

• In many cases, the risks associated with
  decisions can be mitigated with inclusion or
  enhancement of other features, which may offset
  the risk.
• The evaluation of risk is an interdisciplinary
  process requiring involvement of project team
  members and stakeholders based on the specific
  issues and an evaluation of risk tolerability.

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A Peer Model

• Requires a Plan/Process
• Identify Related Risks
• Analyze in terms of Severity and Likelihood
• Decide and Document
• Permits either Quantitative or Qualitative
  Assessments

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Related Training Technical Assistance

• FY2010 NHI 380095
• Highway Design Applying Flexibility
  Risk Management
• FHWA Resource Center Safety Design Team
• www.fhwa.gov/resourcecenter/