Futurescope

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Futurescope FAN Club on Strategic Shocks STFC
RAL, Didcot, 14 October 2009
Dr Harry Woodroof Acting Head, Foresight
Horizon Scanning Centre Government Office for
Science Department of Business, Innovation and
Skills Bay 250, Kingsgate House, 66 74
Victoria St, London. SW1E 6SW 44 (0)203 300
8840 harry.woodroof_at_bis.gsi.gov.uk
lthttp//www.foresight.gov.uk/horizonscanning/gt
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Disruptive Future Shocks
The following shocks were identified as part of a
workshop held for a Departmental Chief Scientific
Adviser by the (then) OSI Horizon Scanning
Centre, with the help of Outsights Ltd, on 29
November 2006

• Climate change
• Resource disruption
• The breakdown of the transport infrastructure
• A pandemic
• Electronic tracking
• Biometrics
• Ageing society
• Decrease in democracy

• Segmented society
• Anti-science the age of irrationality
• Education/knowledge loss
• Legal and transparent fragmentation of the UK
• Extreme shift in international balance of power
• Financial collapse

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Dimensions of a shock

• Workshop participants were asked to consider
  shocks which displayed some, if not all, of the
  following characteristics namely shocks are
• Unanticipated
• Unpredictable
• Non-linear
• Systemic in impact
• Result in sustained change
• Something for which we have limited preparedness

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1. Climate Change

• Too hot? In the feedback loop runaway global
  warming or
• Too cold? The decline and fall of the Gulf Stream

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1. Climate Change

• Rising water levels a reduction in the polar
  ice caps

Net sea level change relative to 1961-90 average
Net sea-level change relative to 1961-1990 (cm)
Source UK Climate Impacts Programme
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2. Resource disruption

• Energy imperialism e.g. Russia and Venezuela

The worlds longest (and largest-diameter)
natural gas pipelines
Source Vaclav Smil, The Next 50 years
Unfolding trends, Population and Development
Review, December 2005
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2. Resource disruption

• A future oil crisis the worlds energy
  consumption will double in 36 years
• Water shortages

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3. Breakdown of transport infrastructure

• Gridlock Britain
• Technology as a panacea
• The development of intelligent transport
  infrastructure systems
• Tele-working practices

Source Running Out of Road, The Economist, 2
December 2006
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4. A pandemic

• Avian flu jumps species?
• Global cost 1.4 millions lives and US330
  billion in lost output
• In what position is the UK to respond?

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5. Electronic tracking

• Surveillance society I am watching you,
  tracking anything, anywhere, anytime
• The technological means
• RFID Radio Frequency Identification
• WISP Wireless Internet Service Providers
• Nanotechnologies

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5. Electronic tracking

• Data Tsunami difficulty in managing the amount
  of data
• Risks of system meltdown and viruses

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6. Biometrics

• The potential plus of biometric technologies
  against crime and terrorism
• The shock is not that they will be used but how
  unintended consequences and mission creep
• One person in four has had their identity stolen
  or knows someone who has

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7. Ageing society

• The oncoming silver tsunami
• Grey Panthers the old get active
• Inter-generational conflict

Growth rate of world population and over-60
cohort
World Population Ageing 1950-2050 Department of
Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division,
United Nations (2002)
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8. Decrease in democracy
Trust in decline?
40
Average of 14 countries Argentina, Brazil,
Canada, Germany, GB, India, Indonesia, Italy,
Mexico, Nigeria, Russia, Spain, Turkey, USA
30
29
20
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Net trust levels
10
2
0
- 9
-10
- 15
-20
2001
2002
2004
2005
Source World Economic Forum 2005
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9. Segmented society

• Me world? Increased individualism
• We world? New sub-groups enabled by technology
• Driven by alienation, democratic apathy and
  exclusion

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10. Anti-science the age of irrationality

• From The Enlightenment to enlightenment
• Leading to a backlash against science
• 48 think Darwinian evolution best explains the
  origins of life vs. 39 who prefer creationism or
  intelligent design

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11. Education/knowledge loss

• The changing geography of innovation
• The relative decline of UK science

Patents Location of the worlds innovations
Source Richard Florida, The World is Spiky,
Atlantic Monthly, October 2005
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12. Legal and transparent fragmentation of the UK

• Extreme devolution
• Greater complexity multiplicity of interfaces
  and duplication
• Increased fragmentation new political alignments

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13. Extreme shift in international balance of
power

• US Isolationism
• From Globalisation to Asianisation the rise of
  India and China
• Or fall? China a soft or hard landing?

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14. Financial Collapse

• Could global financial fragility be exposed by a
  sudden interest rate shock?
• Collapse of shareholder wealth
• Any shock could be compounded by the rapid
  accumulation of debt

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Disruptive Future Shocks
14 shocks .

• Climate change
• Resource disruption
• The breakdown of the transport infrastructure
• A pandemic
• Electronic tracking
• Biometrics
• Ageing society
• Decrease in democracy

• Segmented society
• Anti-science the age of irrationality
• Education/knowledge loss
• Legal and transparent fragmentation of the UK
• Extreme shift in international balance of power
• Financial collapse

. but did we miss anything?
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Disruptive Future Shocks
. and another thing

• Space weather

• e.g. 11-year sunspot cycle

sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/site/sunspot_web.png
. repeat of Carrington Event, 1859 solar
super-storm in May 2013 (current forecast) at
peak of Cycle 24?
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Disruptive Future Shocks
. and another thing

• Increasing inter-dependence of critical systems
  ..
• Internet
• Energy
• Food
• Water
• Comms
• Transport
• Logistics
• ..

HEALTH WEALTH SECURITY
. nearly all with ever-decreasing
slack-in-the-system driven out in the name of
efficiency in the short-term.
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Conclusions

• Cant predict all shocks .. futile to even try
• Understand your vulnerabilities
• Reduce vulnerability by planning for resilience
• accept apparent inefficiencies
• recognise a pound not lost a pound earned
• Lessen the impact of what we dont understand and
  cant predict.