Climate Change: Global Causes and Midwest Consequences

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Climate Change Global Causes and Midwest
Consequences

• Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM
• Professor of Atmospheric Science
• Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
• Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
• Department of Agronomy
• Faculty Director, University Honors Program
• Iowa State University
• Ames, Iowa 50011
• gstakle_at_iastate.edu

21st Annual Environmental Conference and
Expo Iowa-Illinois Safety Council 27 September
2007
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Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
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Outline

• Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
• Four components for addressing climate change
• Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest
  adaptation strategy

Except where noted as personal views or from the
ISU Global Change course or the Iowa
Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented
herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports
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(No Transcript)
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Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
Natural cycles
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IPCC Third Assessment Report
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2007 380 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2050 550 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual 950 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual 950 ppm
?
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http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
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Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Not Natural
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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Highly Likely Not Natural
Not Natural
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Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation Possible
Adaptation Necessary
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
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Four-Component Approach for Addressing Climate
Change

• Mitigation policies 2050-2100
• Example reduction in GHG emissions
• Adaptation (long-term) 2015-2050
• Example Developing Iowas competitive economic
  advantage
• Adaptation (short-term) 2008-2015
• Example redefining climate normals
  when needed and scientifically justified
• Scenario planning for Iowas Katrina 2007-2100
• Example Multi-year drought, recurrent floods,
  combination of both drought and wildfire

EST personal view
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Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest
(My tentative assessment)

• Longer frost-free period (high)
• Higher average winter temperatures (high)
• Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
• More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)
• Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and
  winter (high)
• More (10) precipitation (medium)
• More variability of summer precipitation (high)
• More intense rain events and hence more runoff
  (high)
• Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
• Longer periods without rain (medium)
• Higher absolute humidity (high)
• Stronger storm systems (medium)
• Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)

Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by
models No current trend but
model suggestion or current trend but models
inconclusive
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Warming Hole
C
DTmax (JJA)
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For More Information

• For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything
  you have seen in this presentation, see my online
  Global Change course
• http//www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
• Contact me directly
• gstakle_at_iastate.edu
• Current research on regional climate and climate
  change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity
  under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory
• http//rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
• North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
  Program
• http//www.narccap.ucar.edu/
• For this and other climate change presentations
  see my personal website
• http//www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/

Or just Google Eugene Takle