Our EnergyEconomicEnvironmental Future: Alternatives and Consequences

1
Our Energy-Economic-Environmental Future
Alternatives and Consequences

• Dave Barnes, Geosciences, WMU

2
(No Transcript)
3
The New Energy Economy and Energy Technology
Strategies

• The actions needed to manage the risks of climate
  change require long-term commitments to severely
  limit net emissions of greenhouse gases to the
  atmosphere by developing and deploying new ways
  of producing and using energy across the world.

Global Energy Technology Strategy Program
(GTSP) Phase 2 Findings
4
Take Home Points

• Economic well-being and stability in modern,
  industrialized societies is fundamentally
  dependant on the availability of relatively
  inexpensive energy to heat and cool our
  environment and power our machines
• Conventional fossil energy is finite but there is
  a lot out there, especially coal. Many regions
  will depend, especially, on coal for increasing
  amounts of electric power generation for many
  decades into the future
• Fossil energy combustion and the CO2 generated is
  straining climate systems and, with BAU, will
  cause dire environmental consequences
• We simply cant technology conserve our way
  out of this dilemma. We need to do some waste
  disposal
• GHG emissions mitigation and energy-technology
  adaptation are the keys to regional economic
  success in the coming New Energy Economy
• Michigan in general and SW Michigan in particular
  has a great resource in abundant Carbon
  Geostorage a critical component of
  Carbon Capture and Storage, CCS

5
Fundamental Concepts Related to Energy In Human
Societies

• High per-capita energy use is associated with a
  high standard of living and economic success
  based on energy-intensive machines

from Scott Tinker, Texas Bureau of Economic
Geology TBEG
6
US Energy Flow, 2006(Quadrillion BTUs, Quads)
2006
US - EIA
7
Energy Unit Conversion

• 103 BTUs (1000 British Thermal Units)
• 293 watt/hour (a refrigerator)
• 250 Calories (1 Anchor Steam Beer)
• 10-12 Quads (one trillionth of a Quad)

8
Energy Production and Anthropogenic Climate
Change

• Energy production well into the 21st century will
  be derived mainly from
• the combustion of fossil fuels natural gas, oil,
  and coal
• (because it is relatively cheap and available)

With BAU this will result in large amounts of
CO2 emissions
EIA, 2004
9
A Brief Digression onThe Most Obvious Reminder
of Our Energy Dilemmas
10
Peak Oil

• The Peak Oil Concept or "Hubberts Peak",
• The term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of
  production of oil in any area under
  consideration, recognizing that it is a finite
  natural resource, subject to depletion.
• Colin Campbell

Hubberts Prediction circa 1950s lt 50 of
current models for ultimate recovery!
M. King Hubbert
Geophysicist Hubbert in the field in Illinois
11
Two Generally Accepted Views of Peak Oil
12
Another View of Peak Oil
13
EROEI

• Fuels are substances from which we can extract
  energy
• It costs a certain amount of energy to extract
  the fuel and to deliver it to where the energy is
  needed
• The ratio between the amount of energy extracted
  in the fuel and the energy expended in extracting
  it is known as the Energy Returned on Energy
  Invested EROEI
• If EROEI (ER/EI) is lt1 you have problems

Andrew Flood and Chekov Feeny
14
ER/EI Trends

• Early Petroleum Production in the USA
• ER/EI 100 (Light-Sweet Crude cheap, easy,
  shallow)
• Currently for convention petroleum reserves
• ER/EI 3 in the USA ER/EI 8 in Saudi Arabia
• BTW ER/EI for many biofuels lt1
  (especially corn ethanol)

15
U.S. Energy Comparison
To produce 20 Q/yr (20 U.S. Energy)
Tinker (2004)
16
Global Fossil Energy Reserves
The US is the Saudi Arabia of Coal!
17

• OK, OK,
• We have a LOT of conventional and unconventional
  fossil fuel energy resources.

Current technology, economic stability and the
imperative to maintain (or gain, in the
developing economies) quality of life indicate
that we will use fossil fuel energy resources
till we figure out how to do (and afford)
something better
What do you mean.. BETTER?
18
Energy Production and Anthropogenic Climate Change

• Energy production well into the 21st century will
  be derived mainly from

• the combustion of fossil fuels natural gas,
  oil, and coal (because it is relatively cheap and
  available)
• With BAU this will result in large amounts of
  CO2 emissions

19
Economic Imperatives and Fossil Fuel Resources
Global Carbon Reservoirs and Cycling
? Gt
20
Climate Change in the News2007 will go down in
history as the year the Arctic icecap collapsed
Habitat change
This year NSIDC showed the Artic icecap shrinking
dramatically below it's normal minimum summer
area (summer minimum since 1976)
Endangered species as of 5/14/08 due to Global
Warming
Positive feedbacks thawing permafrost and
methane release
21
Global CO2 Concentrationsin the Recent
Geological Record
Current Concentrations Beyond Range of
(Geologically) Recent Natural Occurrence
March, 2008 CO2 conc. 385ppm
22
Its hard to make someone understand when their
paycheck is dependant on not understanding
Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth
23
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)Fourth Assessment ReportClimate Change
2007 Synthesis Report
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as
is now evident from observations of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
global average sea level
24
Regional, National, and International Initiatives
to Address Climate Change throughGHG Emissions
Mitigation

• Political response to the publics recognition of
  human influenced climate change
• Midwestern Governors Energy Security and Climate
  Stewardship Platform and Greenhouse Gas Accord,
  Nov 15, 2007
• House and Senate Energy Bill, Passed including
  Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies
  initiatives
• IPCC/United Nation Climate Change Conference in
  Bali, Indonesia, Dec 3-14, 2007
• Agreement on a roadmap to a 2009 deadline for
  launch of negotiations toward a comprehensive,
  global agreement to address climate change

25
Midwest Governors AssociationEnergy Security
Climate Stewardship Platform for the Midwest,
Nov 15, 2007(Cap and Trade program scheduled
for implementation 6/2010)

• To satisfy the energy needs of a rapidly growing
  world population, while significantly reducing
  carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas
  (GHG) emissions, we must by mid-century produce
  twice as much low-carbon energy globally as all
  energy consumed in the world today
• Through policy approaches adapted to the
  different needs of our individual jurisdictions,
  we will meet our regions energy security and
  climate stewardship challenges

14
10
13
Total Emissions and Percent of Total U.S.
Emissions of Regional Cap-and-Trade Initiatives
26
US Electric Power by Source, 2006
US EIA, 2006
World Coal Consumption by Region, 1980-2030.
27
Energy to Carbon Production Ratio
Coal combustion produces 2x the CO2 Compared to
other fossil fuels
28
BTW, this will cost real money 1.5-2x compared
to current technology
29
Global Energy Systems Reference vs.
Atmospheric CO2 Stabilization
BAU
(Dont forget this will cost real money)
From GTSP
30
Efforts To Cap Near-term (lt100 Years) Atmospheric
CO2 Concentrations _at_ 550 ppmv

From GTSP
31
Green House Gas Emissions and Energy-Technology
Enabling SystemsThe Silver Buckshot

• Biotechnology and biomass
• Hydrogen systems
• Nuclear energy
• Wind and solar energy
• Efficient Fossil Electric Power Generation
• End-use energy technologies (conservation,
  efficiencies, etc)
• CO2 capture and storage (CCS) at large, fossil
  fuel-fired point sources

From GTSP
32
Economic Stability and Success in the New Energy
Economy

• Regions (nations, states, municipalities)
• will be economically successful if they
  acknowledge the rapidly changing energy landscape
• with available cost-competitive energy supplies
  will improve their chances of economic success
• with cost effective Green House Gas emissions
  mitigation strategies/opportunities will have a
  significant advantage in cost effective energy
  production

33
Review and Summarize

• Economic well-being and stability in modern,
  industrialized societies is tied to the
  availability of energy
• Energy has been cheap and continues to be readily
  available from the combustion of fossil fuels
• Fossil energy is finite but there is a lot out
  there, especially coal
• Fossil Energy combustion and the CO2 generated is
  straining climate systems and, with BAU, will
  cause dire environmental consequences
• We simply cant technology conserve our way
  out of this dilemma we need to do some waste
  disposal
• GHG emissions mitigation and energy-technology
  adaptation are the keys to regional economic
  success in the coming New Energy Economy

34
Carbon Capture and Storage, CCS especially Carbon
Geostorage, CG

• CCS is various methods for capturing and
  permanently storing gaseous CO2 that otherwise
  could contribute to global climate change. 

Global Carbon Cycle (Billion Metric Tons, Gt,
Carbon)
35
Economic Impact of CCS

• Effective CCS requires consideration
• of the entire CO2 "life cycle
• Capture
• Separation,
• Transportation,
• Storage or reuse
• Estimates of sequestration costs (present
  technology)
• 100 to hundreds of /ton of carbon
• emissions avoided.

Many economic, technical, legal, regulatory, and
geological variables/obstacles to be
addressed/resolved

• Reducing the cost of permanent carbon storage to
  10 net or less per ton of carbon emissions
  avoided by 2015 would save the U.S. economy
• TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS

36
Carbon Geostorage (CG)

• Permanent CO2 storage in geological formations or
  Carbon Geostorage (CG)
• Deep saline reservoirs (aquifers)
• Unminable coal/organic shale
• Oil and gas reservoirs
• Note
• Significant value-added oil
  production through
  
  CO2/EOR
• CG is currently the most
• viable approach for
• industrial scale CCS now
• under consideration

From IPPC
37
Global Anthropogenic CO2
Point Sources 8,100 large (gt100Kt/yr),point
sources generating 60 of global CO2 emissions
CG Sinks Preliminary Carbon Geo-storage capacity
estimates gt100 years of storage needs
From GTSP
38
Ideal Industrial Implementation and Maximized
Commercial Viability of CG

• Near- and long-term industrial CO2 emission
  sources linked with CG sinks in a regional
  pipeline network or
• Industrial CO2 emission sources co-located with
  geologically optimized, stacked CG resources

• Very large volume CG in stacked saline reservoir
  formations
• and
• CO2/EOR reservoir targets

From IPPC
39
Preliminary Estimates of US Carbon Geostorage
Michigan has large Carbon Geostorage as well as
large CO2/EOR Potential
From GTSP
40
Economic Advantages and Regional Carbon
Geostorage Opportunities

• CCS technologies will be most economical when
  deployed with new advanced, coal-fired, base load
  electric power plants. Therefore, an important
  criterion for siting base load plants is nearby
  storage capacity for 50 or more years of CO2
  emissions.

GTSP Phase 2 Findings
41
Other Industrial Applications of CCS

• CCS technologies are also potentially a key means
  to cost-effectively reduce emissions from many
  other industrial processes, such as cement
  manufacturing, oil refining, steel production,
  chemicals processing and hydrogen production any
  CO2 emitting activity
• Currently, 60 percent of all anthropogenic CO2
  emissions come from stationary CO2 point sources
  that could adopt CCS.

GTSP Phase 2 Findings
42
(No Transcript)