Automating eLearning: The Future of Higher Education

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Automating e-LearningThe Future of Higher
Education
Professor J C Taylor Vice-President (Global
Learning Services) The University of Southern
Queensland Australia
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• Joseph Schumpeter (1934) predicted that every 50
  years or so, technological revolutions would
  cause
• "gales of creative destruction
• in which old industries would be swept away and
  replaced by new ones.

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Technological Changes

• Steam Power - 1780s to the 1840s
• The Railways - 1840s to the 1890s
• Electric Power - 1890s to the 1930s
• The Motor Car - 1930s to the 1980s
• Information Technology - 1980s to ?

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Pace of Change

• 1. Radio
• 50 million users in 38 years
• 2. Television
• 50 million users in 13 years
• 3. The Internet
• 50 million users in 5 years
• Current prediction
• One billion users by the year 2003

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Internet Access at Home
With Internet Access at Home

• Australia 50
• France 22
• New Zealand 51
• Sweden 61
• UK 46
• USA 60

Source A C Nielsen, June 2000
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e-Readiness Rankings Leaders
e-Readiness ranking Country
e-Readiness score

• 1 USA 8.73
• 2 UK 8.10
• 3 Canada 8.09
• 4 Australia 8.29
• 5 Norway 8.07
• 6 Sweden 7.98
• 7 Singapore 7.87
• 8 Finland 7.83
• 9 Denmark 7.70
• 10 Netherlands 7.69
• 11 Switzerland 7.67
• 12 Germany 7.51
• 13 Hong Kong 7.45

Source The Economist Intelligence Unit
eBusiness Forum, May 2001
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e-Readiness Rankings Contenders
e-Readiness ranking Country
e-Readiness score

• 14 Ireland 7.28
• 15 France 7.26
• 16 (tie) Austria 7.22
• 16 (tie) Taiwan 7.22
• 18 Japan 7.18
• 19 Belgium 7.10
• 20 New Zealand 7.00
• 21 South Korea 6.97
• 22 Italy 6.74
• 23 Israel 6.71
• 24 Spain 6.43
• 25 Portugal 6.21

Source The Economist Intelligence Unit
eBusiness Forum, May 2001
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e-Readiness Rankings Followers
e-Readiness ranking Country
e-Readiness score

• 26 Greece 5.85
• 27 Czech Republic 5.71
• 28 Hungary 5.49
• 29 Chile 5.49
• 30 Poland 5.05
• 31 Argentina 5.01
• 32 Slovakia 4.88
• 33 Malaysia 4.83
• 34 Mexico 4.78
• 35 South Africa 4.74
• 36 Brazil 4.64

Source The Economist Intelligence Unit
eBusiness Forum, May 2001
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e-Readiness Rankings Followers
e-Readiness ranking Country
e-Readiness score

• 37 Turkey 4.51
• 38 Colombia 4.25
• 39 Philippines 3.98
• 40 Egypt / Peru 3.88
• 41 Russia 3.84
• 42 Sri Lanka 3.82
• 43 Saudi Arabia 3.80
• 44 India 3.79
• 45 Thailand 3.75
• 46 Venezuela 3.62

Source The Economist Intelligence Unit
eBusiness Forum, May 2001
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e-Readiness Rankings Laggards
e-Readiness ranking Country
e-Readiness score

• 47 Bulgaria 3.38
• 48 China 3.36
• 49 Ecuador / Iran 3.30
• 50 Romania / Ukraine 3.20
• 51 Algeria / Indonesia 3.16
• 52 Nigeria 2.91
• 53 Kazakhstan 2.76
• 54 Vietnam 2.76
• 55 Azerbaijan 2.72
• 56 Pakistan 2.66

Source The Economist Intelligence Unit
eBusiness Forum, May 2001
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The EIU E-Readiness Rankings

• A formula based on the following factors
• Connectivity (30)
• Business environment (20)
• E-Commerce consumer business adoption (20)
• Legal regulatory environment (15)
• Supporting e-Services (10)
• Social cultural infrastructure (5)

Source http//www.ebusinessforum.com)
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Prediction

• 'The death of distance as a determinant of the
  cost of communications will probably be the
  single most important economic force shaping
  society in the first half of the 21st century'.
• Cairncross (1997)

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Underestimating Change

• In the 1940s the Chairman of IBM predicted that
  the world market for computers would be
  approximately five.
• In 1977, the CEO of Digital could not comprehend
  why anyone should need a personal computer.

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Western Union Internal Memo, 1876 -
Getting it Wrong

• This telephone has too many shortcomings to be
  seriously considered as a means of communication.
  The device is inherently of no value to us.

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• Education must lay the foundation for the success
  of the global economy.

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The transition from the Industrial to the
Information Age was encapsulated by Dolence and
Norris (1995), who argued that to survive
organisations would need to change from rigid,
formula driven entities to organisations that
were fast, flexible and fluid.
Fast, Flexible and Fluid
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Trying to change a university is like trying to
move a graveyard ---
Organisational Inertia

• it is extremely difficult and you dont get much
  internal support.

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Why should universities change?
Organisational Challenge

• Increasing competition on a global scale.

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Increasing Competition

• Unext (Business education only)

• London School of Economics and Political Science
• University of Chicago
• Carnegie Mellon University
• Columbia University
• Stanford University

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Increasing Competition
The Cambridge e-MBA
Cambridge Universitys business school has joined
forces with FT Knowledge, part of the global
communications group Pearson plc, to offer this
new degree from September 2001.
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791 years ago Cambridge University passed a rule
requiring all students to reside in the town of
Cambridge, England. Last year that rule was
revoked. The 800 year-old rulebook had to be
altered to make way for the universitys first
Internet-enabled program, the global e-MBA.
Fast, Flexible and Fluid?
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Increasing Competition
UCLAs OnlineLearning.net

• offers more than 1,000 online courses and has
  enrolled over 12,000 students.

• offers 1,000 American Airlines frequent flyer
  points when you enrol in an online course.

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Book publishing may again become a cottage
industry

• Charles Dickens sold his novels, chapter by
  chapter, in his own magazine, Household Words.
• Stephen King recently offered his new 16,000 word
  ghost story, Riding the Bullet, for exclusive
  sale via the Internet at US2.50 per copy.
• Readers were able to download the text onto their
  computers or e-books.

• King sold 400,000 copies during the first day.

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The Big Picture

• Change is the only constant.

• Growth is the only certainty.

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Future Projections

• A recent IBM report forecasts a threefold (US4.5
  trillion) jump in global education expenditure
  during the next 13 years.
• (Source Richard Gluyas, New Nabs e-School Deal
  http//finance.news.com.au, 22 April 2000).

• The World Bank expects the number of higher
  education students will more than double from 70
  million to 160 million by 2025.

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Will USQ survive?
The Global Lifelong Learning Economy

• Will your institution survive?

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Enrolled Students USQ 2001

• All students 21,063
• External 15,799
• Percentage External 75
• includes currently enrolled off-shore students
  3,981

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USQs Off-Shore Students 2001

• Singapore 1,165
• Malaysia 943
• China 340
• South Africa 199
• Pacific Islands 114
• Zimbabwe 93
• United Arab Emirates 76
• Canada 73
• Total, including students from 60 other
  countries 3,981

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Five Generations of Distance Education Technology

• The Correspondence Model
• The Multimedia Model
• The Telelearning Model
• The Flexible Learning Model
• The Intelligent Flexible Learning Model

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First Generation
MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND
ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO
HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS
ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY
FLEXIBILITY
Time
Place
Pace
THE CORRESPONDENCE MODEL
Yes Yes Yes Yes No
No
Print
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Second Generation
MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND
ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO
HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS
ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY
FLEXIBILITY
Time
Place
Pace
THE MULTIMEDIA MODEL
Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes No
No No No No No

• Print
• Audiotape
• Videotape
• Computer-based learning (eg CML/CAL)
• Interactive video

Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Yes Yes Yes
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Variable costs tend to increase or decrease
directly (often linearly) with fluctuations in
the volume of activity.
In traditional distance education delivery, the
distribution of packages of self-instructional
materials (printed study guides, audiotapes,
videotapes, etc) is a variable cost, which varies
in direct proportion to the number of students
enrolled.
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Third Generation
MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND
ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO
HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS
ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY
FLEXIBILITY
Time
Place
Pace
THE TELELEARNING MODEL
No No No No Yes No No
No No Yes

• Audio-teleconferencing
• Videoconferencing
• Audiographic communication
• Broadcast TV/Radio and Audio-teleconferencing

No No No No
No No No Yes Yes No No
No Yes Yes
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Fourth Generation
MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND
ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO
HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS
ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY
FLEXIBILITY
Time
Place
Pace
THE FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Yes Yes Yes
Interactive multimedia (IMM) Internet-based
access to WWW resources Computer mediated
communication (CMC).
Yes Yes No
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
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Fifth Generation
MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND
ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO
HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS
ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY
FLEXIBILITY
Time
Place
Pace
THE INTELLIGENT FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Yes Yes Yes

• Interactive multimedia
• Internet-based access toWWW resources
• CMC, using automated response systems
• Campus portal access to institutional processes
  resources

Yes Yes Yes Yes
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Yes Yes Yes
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XML (eXtensible Markup Language)

Print
Web
CD
DVD
RENDITIONS

STYLE SHEET
XSL
XSL
XSL
XSL

XML
CONTENT REPOSITORY
DTD(Document Type Definition)

INPUT
XML Editor
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USQOnline demonstration.
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The reflective and explicit nature of the
written word is a disciplined and rigorous form
of thinking and communicating it allows time
for reflection and, thereby, facilitates learners
making connections amongst ideas and constructing
coherent knowledge structures.
Garrison (1997)
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NO
Incoming new question from student
Reusable Learning Objects Database
Search / Match
Previous Questionsltmeta tagsgt
Previous Answersltmeta tagsgt
New Answer
Immediate feedback to student
YES
Trigger
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5th Generation
As the intelligent databases become more
comprehensive, the institutional variable costs
for the provision of effective student support
will tend towards zero.
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5th Generation
In effect, fifth generation distance provides
students with better quality tuition and more
effective pedagogical and administrative support
services at lower cost.
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Any new technology environment eventually
creates a totally new human environment.
Marshall McLuhan
The e-Revolution