Building a Fit, Fast and Flexible Global eLearning Economy

1
Building a Fit, Fast and Flexible Global
e-Learning Economy
Professor J C Taylor Deputy Vice-Chancellor
(Global Learning Services) The University of
Southern Queensland Australia
2
1982 ICDE Conference in Vancouver
Technologys the answer, but what is the
question?
Today, the technology has changed, but the
question hasnt.
3

• Joseph Schumpeter (1934) predicted that every 50
  years or so, technological revolutions would
  cause
• "gales of creative destruction
• in which old industries would be swept away and
  replaced by new ones.

4
Technological Changes

• Steam Power - 1780s to the 1840s
• The Railways - 1840s to the 1890s
• Electric Power - 1890s to the 1930s
• The Motor Car - 1930s to the 1980s
• Information Technology - 1980s to ?

5
Pace of Change

• 1. Radio
• 50 million users in 38 years
• 2. Television
• 50 million users in 13 years
• 3. The Internet
• 50 million users in 5 years
• Current prediction
• One billion users by the year 2003

6
Internet Access in Australia

• An estimated 6 million adults (43 of
  Australias adult population) accessed the
  Internet in the year prior to February 2000.

Source ABS, February 2000
7
Internet Access in Australia

• The likelihood that an adult is an Internet user
  decreases dramatically with age. In the 12
  months prior to February 2000, 77 of 18-24 year
  olds accessed the Internet compared to 13 of
  adults aged 55 or over.

Source ABS, February 2000
8
Internet Access at Home

• 167.1 million - USA
• 27.1 million - Germany
• 23.4 million - United Kingdom
• 18.1 million - Italy
• 11.6 million - Taiwan
• 9.2 million - Australia

Source Cyberatlas, June 2000
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Internet Access at Home
With Internet Access at Home

• Australia 50
• France 22
• New Zealand 51
• Sweden 61
• UK 46
• USA 60

Source A C Nielsen, June 2000
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e-Readiness Rankings Leaders
e-Readiness ranking Country
e-Readiness score

• 1 USA 8.73
• Australia 8.29
• UK 8.10
• Canada 8.09
• Norway 8.07
• Sweden 7.98
• Singapore 7.87
• Finland 7.83
• Denmark 7.70
• Netherlands 7.69
• Switzerland 7.67
• Germany 7.51
• Hong Kong 7.45

Source The Economist Intelligence Unit
eBusiness Forum, May 2001
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e-Readiness Rankings Contenders
e-Readiness ranking Country
e-Readiness score

• 14 Ireland 7.28
• 15 France 7.26
• 16 (tie) Austria 7.22
• 16 (tie) Taiwan 7.22
• 18 Japan 7.18
• 19 Belgium 7.10
• 20 New Zealand 7.00
• 21 South Korea 6.97
• 22 Italy 6.74
• 23 Israel 6.71
• 24 Spain 6.43
• 25 Portugal 6.21

Source The Economist Intelligence Unit
eBusiness Forum, May 2001
12
e-Readiness Rankings Followers
e-Readiness ranking Country
e-Readiness score

• Greece 5.85
• Czech Republic 5.71
• Hungary 5.49
• Chile 5.49
• Poland 5.05
• Argentina 5.01
• Slovakia 4.88
• Malaysia 4.83
• Mexico 4.78
• South Africa 4.74
• Brazil 4.64

Source The Economist Intelligence Unit
eBusiness Forum, May 2001
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e-Readiness Rankings Followers
e-Readiness ranking Country
e-Readiness score

• Turkey 4.51
• Colombia 4.25
• 39 Philippines 3.98
• 40 Egypt / Peru 3.88
• Russia 3.84
• Sri Lanka 3.82
• Saudi Arabia 3.80
• India 3.79
• Thailand 3.75
• Venezuela 3.62

Source The Economist Intelligence Unit
eBusiness Forum, May 2001
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e-Readiness Rankings Laggards
e-Readiness ranking Country
e-Readiness score

• Bulgaria 3.38
• China 3.36
• Ecuador / Iran 3.30
• Romania / Ukraine 3.20
• Algeria / Indonesia 3.16
• Nigeria 2.91
• Kazakhstan 2.76
• Vietnam 2.76
• Azerbaijan 2.72
• Pakistan 2.66

Source The Economist Intelligence Unit
eBusiness Forum, May 2001
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Prediction

• 'The death of distance as a determinant of the
  cost of communications will probably be the
  single most important economic force shaping
  society in the first half of the 21st century'.
• Cairncross (1997)

16
Getting It Wrong

• In the 1940s the Chairman of IBM predicted that
  the world market for computers would be
  approximately five.
• In 1977, the CEO of Digital could not comprehend
  why anyone should need a personal computer.

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• Mr Bell. Thank you for the demonstration.
  Dont call us, well call you.

18

• Education must lay the foundation for the success
  of the global economy.

19
The transition from the Industrial to the
Information Age was encapsulated by Dolence and
Norris (1995), who argued that to survive
organisations would need to change from rigid,
formula driven entities to organisations that
were fast, flexible and fluid.
Fast, Flexible and Fluid
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Trying to change a university is like trying to
move a graveyard ---
Institutional Inertia

• it is extremely difficult and you dont get much
  internal support.

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Why should universities change?
Institutional Inertia

• Increasing competition on a global scale.

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Increasing Competition

• Unext (Business education only)

• London School of Economics and Political Science
• University of Chicago
• Carnegie Mellon University
• Columbia University
• Stanford University

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Increasing Competition
Britains e-University
The Higher Education Funding Council and the
Department of Education and Employment has asked
Treasury to provide an extra 100 million (AU260
million) to fund the e-University.
24
Increasing Competition
The Cambridge e-MBA
Cambridge Universitys business school has joined
forces with FT Knowledge, part of the global
communications group Pearson plc, to offer this
new degree from September 2001.
25
791 years ago Cambridge University passed a rule
requiring all students to reside in the town of
Cambridge, England. Last year that rule was
revoked. The 800 year-old rulebook had to be
altered to make way for the universitys first
Internet-enabled program, the global e-MBA.
Fast, Flexible and Fluid?
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Increasing Competition
UCLAs OnlineLearning.net

• offers more than 1,000 online courses and has
  enrolled over 12,000 students.

• offers 1,000 American Airlines frequent flyer
  points when you enrol in an online course.

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Online Library Fathom.com
The following six institutions will invest AU133
million to create an online library

• London School of Economics and Political Science
• Cambridge University Press
• The British Library
• New York Public Library
• Columbia University
• Smithsonian Institutes National Museum of
  Natural History

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Book publishing may again become a cottage
industry

• Charles Dickens sold his novels, chapter by
  chapter, in his own magazine, Household Words.
• Stephen King published Riding the Bullet, for
  exclusive sale via the Internet at US2.50 per
  copy.

• 400,000 copies were sold on the first day.
• King netted over US463,000.

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e-Publishing

• Frederick Forsyth will publish five short stories
  online from mid-October 2000.
• URL http//www.onlineoriginals.com
• Cost of each story 2
• Forsyth If people want to log on and chit chat
  about the stories, thats fine.

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The Big Picture

• Change is the only constant.

• Growth is the only certainty.

31
Future Projections

• A recent IBM report forecasts a threefold (US4.5
  trillion) jump in global education expenditure
  during the next 13 years.
• (Source Richard Gluyas, New Nabs e-School Deal
  http//finance.news.com.au, 22 April 2000).

• The World Bank expects the number of higher
  education students will more than double from 70
  million to 160 million by 2025.

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Will your organisation survive?
The Global Lifelong Learning Economy

• Will your organisation prosper?

33
University Resources

• USQ is a Public Australian University set up
  under State legislation via the University of
  Southern Queensland Act
• It receives approximately 65 of its annual
  income as an operating grant from the Federal
  Government (including HECS payments)
• The remaining income is generated from research
  and enterprise activities

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Enrolled Students Semester 1, 2001

• All students 20,625
• External 15,194
• Percentage External 76
• includes currently enrolled off-shore students
  3,480

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USQs Australian Off-Campus Students Semester 1,
2001

• Queensland 8,184
• New South Wales ACT 1,687
• Victoria 450
• Western Australia 214
• South Australia 191
• Northern Territory 145
• Tasmania 137
• Australians living overseas 706
• TOTAL 11,714

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USQs Off-Shore Students Semester 1, 2001

• Singapore 1,165
• Malaysia 943
• China 340
• South Africa 199
• Pacific Islands 114
• Zimbabwe 93
• United Arab Emirates 76
• Canada 73
• Total, including students from 60 other
  countries 3,480

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Semester 2, 2001

• A total of 4,767 international students are now
  enrolled
• 1,515 additional domestic students have enrolled

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The Internet has reached a stage that isnt so
much about vision and proprietary innovation, as
about execution and competition.
A Race between Universities
Schendler (2000)
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Watching a race between universities, is like
watching elephants play soccer.
Fit, Fast and Flexible ?
Being the fittest, fastest and most talented
elephant is a very good thing to be.
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Five Generations of Distance Education Technology

• The Correspondence Model
• The Multimedia Model
• The Telelearning Model
• The Flexible Learning Model
• The Intelligent Flexible Learning Model

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Variable costs tend to increase or decrease
directly (often linearly) with fluctuations in
the volume of activity.
In traditional distance education delivery, the
distribution of packages of self-instructional
materials (printed study guides, audiotapes,
videotapes, etc) is a variable cost, which varies
in direct proportion to the number of students
enrolled.
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First Generation
MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND
ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO
HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS
ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY
FLEXIBILITY
Time
Place
Pace
THE CORRESPONDENCE MODEL
Yes Yes Yes Yes No
No
Print
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Second Generation
MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND
ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO
HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS
ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY
FLEXIBILITY
Time
Place
Pace
THE MULTIMEDIA MODEL
Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes No
No No No No No

• Print
• Audiotape
• Videotape
• Computer-based learning (eg CML/CAL)
• Interactive video

Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Yes Yes Yes
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Third Generation
MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND
ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO
HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS
ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY
FLEXIBILITY
Time
Place
Pace
THE TELELEARNING MODEL
No No No No Yes No No
No No Yes

• Audio-teleconferencing
• Videoconferencing
• Audiographic communication
• Broadcast TV/Radio and Audio-teleconferencing

No No No No
No No No Yes Yes No No
No Yes Yes
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Fourth Generation
MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND
ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO
HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS
ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY
FLEXIBILITY
Time
Place
Pace
THE FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Yes Yes Yes
Interactive multimedia (IMM) Internet-based
access to WWW resources Computer mediated
communication (CMC).
Yes Yes No
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
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The current applications of fourth generation
Internet-based delivery tend to generate resource
allocation models similar to tutorial-based on-
campus teaching.
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The underlying resource model is not
significantly different from conventional on
campus teaching, with a staff member being
necessary to manage groups of approximately 20
students to maintain a reasonable quality of
interaction and academic support.
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Fifth Generation
MODELS OF DISTANCE EDUCATION AND
ASSOCIATED DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLE COSTS APPROACHING ZERO
HIGHLY REFINED MATERIALS
ADVANCED INTERACTIVE DELIVERY
FLEXIBILITY
Time
Place
Pace
THE INTELLIGENT FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Yes Yes Yes

• Interactive multimedia
• Internet-based access toWWW resources
• CMC, using automated response systems
• Campus portal access to institutional processes
  resources

Yes Yes Yes Yes
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Yes Yes Yes
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XML (eXtensible Markup Language)

Print
Web
CD
DVD
RENDITIONS

STYLE SHEET
XSL
XSL
XSL
XSL

XML
CONTENT REPOSITORY
DTD(Document Type Definition)

INPUT
XML Editor
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USQOnline demonstration.
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The reflective and explicit nature of the
written word is a disciplined and rigorous form
of thinking and communicating it allows time
for reflection and, thereby, facilitates learners
making connections amongst ideas and constructing
coherent knowledge structures.
Garrison (1997)
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Automating e-Learning

• In the USQ approach, many teaching staff make use
  of discussion groups, which entail students
  posting reflections via the asynchronous CMC
  system.

• Storing such interactions with appropriate
  metadata tags in a database is technically
  straightforward, and provides a rich resource for
  mining by key word/matching, using an automated
  response system.

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NO
Duty Tutor
Incoming new question from student
Reusable Learning Objects Database
Search / Match
Previous Questionsltmeta tagsgt
Previous Answersltmeta tagsgt
New Answer
Immediate feedback to student
YES
Trigger
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Responses can be directed to the whole cohort of
students, or at individuals
Automated Response Systems

• They have the advantage of providing more-or-less
  immediate feedback to students at minimal
  variable cost

• As the intelligent object databases become more
  comprehensive, the institutional variable costs
  for the provision of effective tuition will tend
  towards zero.

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e-Learner Relationship Management
Using intelligent databases, the knowledge
generated by solving student problems/enquiries
is being progressively stored so that students
with similar problems can have their enquiries
dealt with immediately through the self-help,
automated response capacity of the USQAssist
system.
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USQAssist
As the intelligent databases become more
comprehensive, the institutional variable costs
for the provision of effective student support
will tend towards zero.
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The PC-ePhone
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Organisational Development
In many universities the development of web-based
initiatives is not systemic, but is often the
result of random acts of innovation initiated by
risk-taking individual academics.
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The USQ Approach
USQs institution-wide approach reflects one
element of the corporate mission statement To
be a leader in flexible learning and the use of
information and communications technologies.
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The USQ Approach
The USQ approach is to give people What they
want, Where they want it, When they want
it. WWW is purely incidental!
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USQ Case Study
As a case study, the USQ experience exemplifies
the necessary institutionwide corporate approach
for an organization to become fast, flexible
and fluid as it strives to develop the capacity
to implement fifth generation distance education.
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5th Generation
The fifth generation model of distance education
has the potential to provide students with a
valuable, personalized pedagogical experience at
much lower cost than traditional approaches to
distance education and conventional face-to-face
education.
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5th Generation
If this can be achieved on a sufficiently large
scale, then tuition costs can be significantly
lowered, thereby engendering much greater access
to higher education opportunities to many
students throughout the world, who presently
cannot afford to pay current prices.
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5th Generation
In effect, fifth generation distance education is
not only less expensive, it also provides
students with better quality tuition and more
effective pedagogical and administrative support
services at lower cost.
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Any new technology environment eventually
creates a totally new human environment.
Marshall McLuhan
The e-Revolution
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Clicks and Mortar are not enough

• The Internet is set to connect virtually everyone
  and everything the Web is turning into
  humanitys collective brain.
• Any organisation hoping to survive must mirror
  the Internet itself.
• It must become

• open non-hierarchical
• democratic experimental
• tightly networked endlessly adaptable

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Clicks and Mortar are not enough

• To survive and prosper organisations need to
  mirror the Internet and to develop a collective
  brain capable of -

habitual and radical innovation. (Gary Hamel,
Inside the Revolution, 2001)
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Aussie Rules.OK?
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USQs 5th Generation

• It is easier to create the future than it is to
  predict it.

(Taylor, 2001)