Transition to Democracy

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Transition to Democracy

• And associated conceptual frameworks

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Interesting articles

• Larry Diamond Is the Third Wave over?
  http//muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democracy/
  v007/7.3/diamond.html
• Paul Lewis Theories of Democratisation and
  Patterns of Regime Change in Eastern Europe
  Journal of Communist Studies and Transition
  Politics Vol13, No1, March1997
• R.F.M.Lubbers A response to Samuel Huntington
  http//www.globalize.org.clash.html

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Samuel P.Huntington

• Three waves of democratization
• 1828-1926
• 1943-1964
• 1974-present
• First two ended with a reverse wave

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Diamonds Table 1
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Lewiss groups 1997

• Group 1
• Hungary
• Poland
• Czech Republic
• Slovenia
• Intermediate
• Bulgaria
• Slovakia

• Group 2
• Romania
• Croatia
• Albania
• Serbia

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Hang on a minute, what about?

• Estonia in first group of applicant countries
• Lithuania
• Latvia
• Bosnia
• Macedonia
• Ukraine
• Moldova

• Byelarus
• Russia
• Georgia
• Armenia
• Azerbaijan

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E.U.s two groups of applicants

• Hungary
• Poland
• Estonia
• Czech Republic
• Slovenia
• Cyprus

• Bulgaria
• Latvia
• Lithuania
• Rumania
• Slovakia
• Turkey

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Explanations

• Group 2 primarily Ottoman, Group1
  Austo-Hungarian/North European
• Group 2 Orthodox Christian or Muslim Group 1
  Catholic or Protestant
• such explanations stress cultural and historical
  factors

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Explanations 2

• Group 2 countries had stable communist rule
• Group 1 had history of instability and
  ideological revisionism
• Elite mass relations very different under
  Communist rule

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Explanations 3

• Civil society strong in group 1 countries
• Poland church
• Hungary dissident elections and early political
  parties
• Czechs artists
• East Germany Lutheran peace groups
• Slovenia punks and youth groups

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More on Civil society

• Revolts GDR 1953 Hungary Poland 1956
  Czechoslovakia 1968 Poland 1980-1
• pluralism developed as leadership retreated
  during 1980s
• So civil society began to organise itself pre-1989

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Explanations 4

• Group 1 communist regimes modes of exit involved
  social movements that negotiated elections
  Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia
• Group 2 exit by coup or elite reshuffle pace of
  democratisation delayed

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Explanations 5

• Modernization and socio-economic development
  higher in Group 1
• GDP per capita higher
• urbanisation higher
• working in agriculture lower

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DebateModernisation v Elite Choice

• Lipset
• Dahl
• Huntington
• Pye

• ODonnell and Schmitter
• Przeworski
• Bova
• von Beyme
• Welsh