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Economics of Transition

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TIGER Working paper No. 82, 2005. Shock Therapy versus Gradualism: The End of the Debate (Explaining the Magnitude ... ???????, 21 ???????? 1998?. ??????, ????? ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Economics of Transition


1
??????????? ?????? ???????????????????
???????????? ??? ???????? ? ?????
  • ?.?. ?????

2
?????? ?? ???? (http//www.carleton.ca/ vpopov)
  • Shock Therapy versus Gradualism Reconsidered
    Lessons from Transition Economies after 15 Years
    of Reforms. TIGER Working paper No. 82, 2005
  • Shock Therapy versus Gradualism The End of the
    Debate (Explaining the Magnitude of the
    Transformational Recession). Comparative
    Economic Studies, Vol. 42, Spring, 2000, No. 1,
    pp. 1-57.
  • Reform Strategies and Economic Performance of
    Russias Regions. World Development, Vol. 29,
    No 5, 2001, pp. 865-86.
  • Democracy and Growth Reconsidered Why Economic
    Performance of New Democracies Is Not
    Encouraging, co-authored with V. Polterovich)

3
?????? ?? ???? (http//www.carleton.ca/ vpopov)
  • ??????? ????????? ?????? ???????? ??????.
    ??????? ?????????, ?.8, 1998?, ?. 56-70.
  • ????????????? ???????? ??? ???????? ? ?????
    ??????? ???????? ??????? ? ?????????????
    ????????. ??????? ?????????, ?.7, 1998?., ?.
    42-64. ??????????? ??????? ?? ???????
    ??????????? ?????? ??????????? ????? ?????????.
    ???????, 21 ???????? 1998?.
  • ??????, ????? ????, ??? ??????? ???????????
    ??????, ??????? 2004, No. 4 (? ??????????? ? ?.
    ?????????? - ??????????? ??????? ??????? ??????
    - "???????????? ??????" ? 40, 11 ??????? 2004

4
???????? ???????????? ? ?????????? ??????????
(??? ? 2004?. ? ? 1989?.)
5
?????? ??? ? ?????????? ?????????? ? 2004?.,
1989?. 100
6
?????? ??? ? ??????????? ??????? ????, 1989
100
7
??????????, ????????????, ???????????? ? ??????,
1970-2004??.
8
????????????? ???????? ??????? ? ????????
?????????????, ?? ?????? ?? ?????? ??????
9
??????? ????????????? ??????? ? ???????? ??? ?
?????? ? ?????
10
???? ??????? ???????? ? ??? ? ?????????????
????????
11
Distortions were measured as deviations in the
shares of industry, agriculture and services in
GDP, as compared to "normal" structure, defined
as an average industrial structure for market
economies with similar levels of per capita GDP
  • ???????????? ? ????????? ????????? ?
    ????????????? ????????

12
???????????? ? ????????? ????????? ? ???????
???????? ? ????????????? ????????
13
??????? ?????? ???????????? ??????????? ?
????????????? ????????
14
???????????? ?????????? ??? ?? ???? ?????????
? ?????? ??????????? ??????? ? ?????????????
????????
  • Distortions in industrial structure
    (militarization, overindustrialization, etc.) and
    distortions at the micro level (the size and
    specialization of enterprises) are more difficult
    to overcome, if they are embodied in fixed
    assets, and if these fixed assets are sizeable
    compared to GDP.

15
???????????? ?????????? ? ?????????? ??????????
16
????????? ??????????? ? ?????????? ??????????
17
???? ??????????????? ??????? ? ? ??? ? ????
??????? ?????????
18
???????? ?????????? ? ? ??? ? ?????????????
???????? ? ?????????? ??????????
19
??????????????? ?????? ? ? ??? ? ??????????
??????????
20
??????????? ????????????? ???????? (1989-96??.)
?? ???????? ???????, ???? ?????????? ?
????????????? ????????
21
??????????? ????????????? ???????? (1989-98??.)
?? ???????? ???????, ???? ?????????? ?
????????????? ????????
22
??????? ?????????? ? ???????????? ? ??????????
??????????
23
?????????????? ??? ?????? ????????????
???????????? ??????????? ?? ?????????????
????????
24
????? 90 ???????? ? ???????? ??? ???????????
????????? ?????????, ?????????????????
???????????, ?????????????????? ?????????
25
?????? ?? ??????? ????????????? ?? ?????????????
????????? ????????????? ?? ????????? ????? (??
????? ?????????????????? ?????) ??????
????????????, ????? (??? ???????? ?
?????????????? ??????????????) - ????????????.
26
?????? ?? ??????? ????????????? ?? ?????????????
????????? ????????????? ?? ????????? ????? (??
????? ?????????????????? ?????) ??????
????????????, ????? (??? ???????? ?
?????????????? ??????????????) - ????????????.
27
????????? ??????? ???????????? ? ?????????
???????? ??????? ? ?????????? ????????????? ???
28
????????? ??? ? 1989-96??.????????????????
?????????? ??? ????????????? ? 1995?. - ???????
??????????
29
????????? ??? ? 1995-2003??. ????????????????
?????????? ??? ????????????? ????? 1995?. -
????????????? ? 1995?. ? ????? ??? ???
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