EuroMediterranean integration beyond the crisis

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Euro-Mediterranean integration beyond the crisis

• Fabrizio Onida
• Università Bocconi, Milano
• EIPA and SSPA, Rome, October 28, 2009

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A V-shaped recovery (so far)
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Rebounding trade (WEO October 2009)
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Export orders decline stabilized in Europe
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China and other BRICs
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Consumer confidence still weak
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Business confidence recovering
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0il and commodity prices up again impact of
recovery or volatile speculation?
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Trade-output elasticity will it go back to about
2 after crisis?
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Risks of W-shaped recovery

• 1. Unemployment on rise
• 2. Premature exhuberance in financial markets
• 3. Delayed policy responses to regulations of
  derivatives
• 4. (Medium term) uncertainty on debt/GDPO ratios
• A dull, heavy calm (Economist, October 3,
  2009)

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Growth, inflation, current account balance(IMF,
World Economic Outlook, October 2009
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World import shares (a), geographical weights on
Italys export (b), Italys world export shares

• Quota di ciascun mercato sulle importazioni
  mondiali
• Peso mercato su export Italia
• Export Italia/export Mondo su ogni mercato
• Quota c) rapportata a quota media Export
  Italia/Export Mondo (3.6)
• Saldo (export import) in milioni di euro

Fonte ICE, Rapporto 2007-08
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World trade shares Africa and Middle East low
but rising
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Value and Shares of World Exports 1948
2005billion dollars and percentage
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Value and Shares of World Imports 1948
2005billion dollars and percentage
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World merchandise exporters (excluding intra-EU
27 trade), 2007
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World merchandise importers (excluding intra-EU
27 trade), 2007
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Leading exporters-importers
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North Africas import origins
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Middle East intra-regional and EU integration
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Natural resource curse Africa and Middle East
slower decline than other Developing economies
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More and less favourable macro-structural
indicators

• Developing Mediterranean countries vs. other
  developing African and Asian countries
• 1. More favourable
• - reduction in child mortality 1990-2005
• - gross enrollment ratio in secondary
  education ( of relevant age group)
• - public debt/GDSP
• - ODA/GDP
• 2. Less favourable
• - population rate of growth 90-05 and
  forecast 2005-15
• - unemployment
• - poor infrastructures
• - oil-gas export dependence (Algeria,
  Lybia, Siria, Egypt)
• The creation of the Union for the Mediterranean
  is hardly the rebirth of imperial Rome, but it
  may just be the start of something exciting (The
  Economist, Club Med, July 12, 2008)

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FDIs still rising in developing areas in 2008,
unlike developed ones. How heavy 2009 fall?
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FDI into developing areas no crush in 2009
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Egypt largest recipient of MA investors from
Europe and Gulf
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• Euromed integration and outward oriented
  development catching the opportunities and a
  long way to go!
• All the best!