Programy ramowe a innowacyjnosc energetyki

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SUSTAINABLE WORLD COAL MINING AND USE
PERSPECTIVES TO 2030 by Dr. Klaus Brendow World
Energy Council, Geneva / London INTERNATIONAL
CONFERENCE 22-23 NOVEMBER 2005 WARSAW


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FOUR QUESTIONS

• WHAT IS COALS ROLE IN WORLD MINING?
• WHAT ARE COALS PERSPECTIVES TO 2030?
• WOULD THOSE BE SUSTAINABLE?
• WHAT ARE THE ISSUES AND OPTIONS FOR INDUSTRY AND
  GOVERNMENTS?

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COAL MINING WORLDWIDE A COMPARISON

• World coal demand 2002 4.8 bill. t
• investments in coal mining equipment 6.1
  billion/year
• fatalities 10,000

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THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES 2000-2030-2050

• 2030 50 (IEA), 100 (EU)

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• The main drivers are
• electricity generation in 2030, coal covers 45
  of world power need
• coal trade about 640 mt in 2000 to 1100 mt in
  2030
• huge coal reserves

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• Share of developing countries in world coal
  demand 1990 37 , 2050 68
• CEE/CIS modest revival till 2020 and possibly
  2030 ( 12 )

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THE REASON COALS PRICE COMPETITIVENESS IS
GROWING

Coals main competitor till 2030 natural gas,
thereafter perhaps new nuclear
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• GROWTH THANKS TO
• PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN MINING
• 5 to 10 /year during the 1980
• 10 to 15 /year, during the 1990s
• growth to continue due to rising
• labor productivity, restructuring,
• liberalization, technology transfer,
• growth of opencast versus
• underground mining
• HIGHER EFFICIENCIES IN POWER PLANTS
• present world average 32
• state of the art 42 to 25
• perspective 50 to 53

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III. SUSTAINABLE COAL USE

•        mining control of dust, noise, water
  tables, land use
•        emissions of SO2, Nox desulphurization,
  denoxification
•        emissions of CO2 efficiency plus carbon
  sequestration and storage

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Results Ø   stabilization possible as of
2030 Ø   even at doubling of coal demand by
2050, Ø   but no decrease against 2000
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IV. POLICIES AND BUSINESS STRATEGIES

• Governments
• Ø    to favour market-oriented,
  non-discriminatory energy policies (phase-out
  price controls, import tariffs, producer
  subsidies privatisation)
•    to support RDD in carbon capture and storage
•     to adopt ILO Convention on Safety in Mines,
  close illegal mines,
• and regulate small-scale mining
•     to encourage technology transfer, JI, CDM and
  emission trading
•    to enforce higher environmental standards
•  

      
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• MINING COMPANIES
• to preserve coals price competitiveness and
  profitability
• to promote sustainable mining, e. g. through ISO
  certification
• to deploy good mining and management practices to
  newly emerging
• coal nations (capacity building, community
  development)
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•  COAL-BASED POWER GENERATORS
• to proactively support clean coal combustion
  technologies and RDD
• in carbon capture and storage to explore
  synfuels production
• to promote coals image and spread the message

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• COAL CAN CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY TO
• SOCIO- ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ERADICATION OF
  ENERGY POVERTY AND SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLIES.
• 2. COAL CAN BE CLEAN.
• 3. COAL IS PART OF THE PROBLEM OF
• SUSTAINABILITY, BUT ALSO PART OF THE
  SOLUTION.

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