Responding to demographic ageing at regional level

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• Responding to demographic ageing at regional
  level
• Demographic projections and European regions
• Regions for All Ages programme
• Yorkshire Region Workshop
• Brussels 19 June 2007
• Richard Baker
• Age Concern England
• Co-ordinator, Regions for All Ages programme

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Background

• Wanted to start event with demographic backdrop
• Eurostat not available
• Agreed to make some opening remarks and borrow
  from Eurostat statistics but.
• Not a demographer
• Not speaking for Eurostat
• Crediting Eurostat for the figures not RfAA
• Very useful digest available on Eurostat site
• Also presentation by Giampaolo LANZIERI (Eurostat
  Unit F-1 Demographic and Migration Statistics)
  European Commission conference Regions for
  Economic Change
• Other sources
• See Lanzieri presentation
• EPSON

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General trends - past

• There is a clear divide in terms of population
  growth in the regions of North-east of the EU
  the population is decreasing.
• Basically, this is due to a negative natural
  change.
• In some of these regions, emigration has further
  contributed to the population decline.
• On the opposite, in some Central and Southern
  European regions, immigration has compensated the
  natural decline.

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Projections looking forward

• Projections not predictions based on
  observation
• Policy can influence outcomes
• According to the results of Eurostat regional
  projections (Trend scenario)
• Nearly half of the EU regions are likely to have
  a population size in 2031 smaller than in 2004
  more than 2/3 could have started a descending
  trend
• All are expected to age
• The ageing will take place to differing degrees
  and timing across EU regions
• Migration is projected to be the main driver of
  the regional population growth

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EU population likely to decline
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EU population certain to age- wide differences
for regions
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Different ranges in different states
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Different drivers region by region
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Summary

• Different demographic futures across EU 27
• Population decline
• Population ageing
• Longevity
• Decline in fertility
• Immigration
• Interactions between regions
• People migration
• Policy and development trade, social,
  communications
• Needs responses at all levels