Growing Old, Growing Young: Demographic Challenges

1
Growing Old, Growing Young Demographic Challenges

• Hussein A. Sayed

2
Growing Old, Growing Young Demographic Challenges

• The main theme of the session is actually
  emphasizing the demographic challenges facing
  nations and subpopulation as a result of their
  different level of progress within the
  demographic transition process.
• The same conclusion was also confirmed by the
  papers presented, although limited to the
  Australian experience, but it can be also
  observed at various levels
• Global / Regional
• National
• Sub-national

3
Growing Old, Growing Young Demographic Challenges

• Besides their demographic implications, they will
  have clear implications for the measurement of
  progress, assuming that already have a common
  consensus of what various stakeholders mean by
  progress?
• The presentations and the position elaborated
  yesterday showed different views about what is
  meant by progress for different groups and organs
  depending on various factors including the level
  of those concerned, the context and the time
  factor.

4
Growing Old, Growing Young Demographic Challenges

• Major prevailing demographic challenges that
  
  need to be elaborated include
• The changing age structure of the population
• Global Ageing
• Migration and,
• Population characteritics.

5
Demographic Transition The Changing Age Structure

• Long-term changes in fertility and mortality
  resulted in fundamental population dynamics that
  was reflected on the age structure.
• The speed and depth of such changes varies,
  across nations and subpopulations, depending on
  their place within the demographic transition
  process.
• Such differences can be noticed for different
  regions and globally, as shown in Table 1,
  representing the expected average annual growth
  rates during the period 2005- 2050.

6
Table (1)Average Annual Rate of Change of the
Total Population and the Population in Broad Age
Groups, By Major Area, 2005-2050 (Medium Variant)
7
Demographic Transition The Changing Age Structure

• Significantly low average annual rate of change
  for the age group 0-14 years. With the exception
  of the least developing countries, the rate is
  very low and even negative for developed regions
  and parts of the less developed countries. This
  is mainly the result of continuous low birth
  rates.
• Similar trend is noticed for the age group 15-59
  years, although the differences between developed
  and developing countries is becoming more
  obvious.

8
Global Ageing

• Population dynamics, accompanied by significant
  improvements in health and longevity among the
  elderly are leading to growing percentages of
  ageing populations and growing rates of old age
  dependency.
• Table 2 show a different pathways to the changes
  in the age structure, leading to growing old and
  growing young populations at different parts of
  the world.
• The prevalence of two population models is
  clearly seen, at the regional level, reflecting
  the varying impact of population dynamics
  (fertility and mortality).

9
Global Ageing

• The percentage of the population of age 60 years
  amounted to 20 in the developed regions compared
  to only 11 in developing countries.
• The trend is expected to continue manifesting in
  2050 (32 compared to 20 respectively).
• Significant differences are observed across
  regions, the percentage of population 60 years or
  over in Africa (2006) amount to 5 compared to
  21 for Europe and 17 for North America,
  confirming the prevalence of two models at
  various levels.

10
Table (2)Population Ageing (60 Years or Over)
2006
11
Table (2)Population Ageing (60 Years or Over)
2006
12
Table (2) Population Ageing (60 Years or Over)
2006
13
Global Ageing

• The ageing process would continue globally,
  across regions and countries as can be seen from
  Table 2.
• By 2050, the percentage 60 years and over is to
  reach 22 and such percentages would be doubled
  for almost all developing regions, but the gap
  between developed and developing countries would
  narrow.
• Similar percentage for Europe and North America
  would reach 34 and 27 respectively.

14
Global Ageing Overall Impact

• Successful ageing leading to maximizing desired
  outcomes, i.e. adding life to years, not years
  to life.
• AS stated by ageing experts, successful ageing is
  the confluence of three functions
• Avoidance of disease and disability
• High cognitive and maintain physical and
  mental functioning
• Involvement in society and being active
  with life.

15
Global Ageing Overall Impact

• The aspirations of this growing group and their
  challenges need to reflected in measuring
  progress.
• Various aspects of life for this group include
• Health transition, morbidity and
  disability
• Marital status changes intergenerational
  relationships
• Family structure and the changing norm of
  the nuclear family
• Living arrangements
• Work participation
• Retirement and social security benefits.
• Table 3 presents some characteristics of this
  group.

16
Table (3)Population Ageing characteristic (60
Years or Over) 2006)
17
Demographic Challenges Migration

• Migration trends, similarly affected the changes
  in the age structure
• Migration stocks from developing countries might
  benefit from the better conditions in the
  receiving countries, but the benefits for the
  former are affected by many factors
• Managed migration programs are based on circular
  migration, short-term movements and incentives
  for return back. This will affect population
  dynamics in different ways .
• A new type of data collection mechanisms are
  required.

18
Demographic Challenges Population Characteristics

• Human development aspects including health,
  education and economic growth
• Gender concerns, especially among ageing
  population
• Special groups needs and absorbing them within
  the society ( disability and people with
  psychological disorder)
• Level of HIV/AIDS epidemic and death, especially
  in some region such as Africa.

19
Demographic Challenges and Measuring Progress

• Measurement of progress that takes into
  consideration such demographic challenges, would
  require
• Identifying the aspirations and desirable
  outcomes for various groups and locations
• A combination of aggregate and
  distributional measures to respond to the needs
  of various special groups and geographic
  locations
• Improving the quality of primary data and
  widening the scope of measurements to take
  contextual aspects into consideration.

20
Demographic Challenges Data Requirements

• Providing primary quality data for various
  defined administrative level
• Collect information to monitor the situation of
  subpopulation groups, especially the ageing, to
  enable countries to develop better policies in
  that respect(such as the Health retirement
  study of the USA) while at the same time develop
  systems to collect information on children
• Collect development information on international
  migration, especially that some countries are
  benefiting from this to help stem the decline of
  population size and working-age.

21
Measuring Progress

• Measuring progress is a dynamic continuous
  process that depend on the perception of
  progress
• GDP considered a measure of progress in goods
  services
• HDI is mainly concerned with expanding abilities
  to make informed choices
• Progress in that continuum should be concerned
  with capacity to achieve/realize informed
  choices.