Munawar B' Ahmad, PE

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Energy is our business
A NEW ENERGY MIX FOR PAKISTAN
THE PAKISTAN AND REGIONAL ENERGY FORUM
MOVING TOWARDS ENERGY SUFFICIENCY,
SUSTAINABILITY SOVEREIGNTY
by Munawar B. Ahmad, PE EMR-Consult Oct. 2009
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1. ROOTS OF PAKISTANS ENERGY CRISIS

• Pakistan today is caught up in an acute Energy
  Crisis which has its roots in five (5) distinct
  causes, namely
• Lack of Integrated Energy Planning Demand
  Forecasting and absence of central focused
  entity responsible for the Energy Sector
• Imbalanced Energy Mix with heavy reliance on gas
  (47.5) and Oil (30.5) (72 imported)
• Non-utilization of vast indigenous resources of
  Thar Coal and Hydel potential
• Lack of effective project structuring, planning
  and implementation of indentified and viable
  projects
• Inadequate Primary Energy Sources or access to,
  or local availability / development

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1. ROOTS OF PAKISTANS ENERGY CRISIS

• As a consequence the energy shortages have
  snowballed with major supply chain and
  infrastructure gaps, namely
• The Electric Power Sector has been in static
  non-growth mode from 2003-2008, and the peak
  supply-demand gap has grown to about 3,500 -
  4,000 MW from about 1,000 MW in 2006. (Fig. I
  (a), I (b) )
• In the Gas Sector the demand - supply gap that
  emerged in 2007 has grown to about 800 MMcfd in
  2009 due to stalled import projects (Mashal, IPI,
  PGP) and local fields not developed / put in
  production for 5 years ( 500 MMcfd) (Fig.
  II )
• Inadequate Energy Infrastructure supply to end
  customers both for electric power as well as fuel
  oil for Power Plants  has been constrained
• Short Supply of Gas/Oil to Power Plants the
  crisis has been aggravated due to gas supply
  shortfall and reduced oil supply due to
  non-payment to OMCs

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4.1 - PAKISTANS PRIMARY ENERGY MIX

• Pakistans Primary Energy Mix is essentially
  imbalanced even on a worldwide comparative basis,
  with dependence on gas at 47.5, oil at 30.5
  (72 imported) (Fig. V )
• The 2005 Energy Plan, projected a continuing
  dependence of about 48 on Natural Gas in the
  2030 scenario, based on mega imports thru
  Transnational Pipelines (6.5 bcfd) and LNG (1.5
  bcfd) (Fig. VI )
• With the continuing delay in the planned TNPs and
  LNG import projects (Mashal, PGP, Engro etc) the
  primary energy gap is increasing at an alarming
  rate
• By 2015 the natural gas supply-demand gap after
  LNG imports of 1.0 bcfd (if implemented) will
  increase to 1.7 bcfd, and is unlikely to be
  covered as IPI cannot be completed in this time
  frame
• There is clearly an essential need to plan a
  revised Primary Energy Mix along with a revised
  electricity generation plan by source in the 2010
  2030 scenario

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4.2 - PAKISTANS POWER GENERATION BY SOURCE

• With rising cost of crude oil from 60 in 2005
  to 147 in 2008, Pakistans oil based thermal
  generation (32) became unsustainable and has
  resulted in a massive Energy Sector debt ( 3.6
  billion)
• Coal utilization is about 9 in the Energy Mix,
  and only 0.1 for Power Generation vs. 72 in
  China, 56 in India and more than 50 in the
  USA (Fig. VII )
• New power generation has remained static for
  about 7 years (Fig. VIII )
• A more rational and Sustainable Energy Mix must
  be planned for the 2010-2030 scenario.
• Significant increase in hydel power generation
  and optimum use of coal thru gasification and
  clean coal technologies
• As a strategic priority Nuclear Electric Energy
  has to be increased to about 5 and Renewable to
  about 3 in the 2030 scenario

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5.1 THAR COAL UTILIZATION
Pakistans Thar Coal Potential

• Worlds Single largest contiguous Coal field
  extending over 10,000 Sq KMs (Fig- IX )
• Reserves of 175 200 billions tons exceed oil
  equivalent reserves of Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran,
  with a value of several trillion US (Figure-X
  )
• Phased development can lead to 400 600 mt /year
  coal mining in 20 years
• All of Pakistans energy requirements (Electric,
  Power, Gas, Diesel) can be met in 2020 2030
  scenario
• The most recent ADB report (May 2007) states
  Thar lignite once mined, is a useable fuel or
  carbon resource and Coal to liquids-CTL is
  considered a serious utilization option
• In addition to Electric Power, SNG, Chemicals,
  Fertilizer, etc can be produced for self
  consumption and surplus can be exported
  (Figure-XI )
• Contribution to GDP in plants, products,
  services, employment, etc, would be in the range
  of 200b-300b which exceeds Pakistans current
  GDP of 170 b
• Thar Coal is Gods Gift of Black Gold to the
  People of Pakistan and will ensure the Nations
  Energy Economic Future

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5.1 THAR COAL UTILIZATION
Co-Production Plants based on Thar Coal
Gasification

• Coal production costs have to be in the range of
  20 - 25 /tons, which equates to a crude oil
  cost of about 50 per barrel in order to achieve
  economical levels
• To achieve cost benchmark mine capacity of 50
  mtons/year is required in three phases of (1) 15
  mtons/yr (2) 30 mtons/yr and (3) 50 mtons/yr
• Following co-production plants will need to be
  set-up in the three phases to match with coal
  production over 3-5 years
• Phase 1) IGCC 500 mw (3 mtons/yr) and SNG 250
  mmcfd (12 mtons/yr). Total 15 mt/yr
• Phase 2) IGCC 500 mw (3 mtons/yr) and FTD
  30,000 barrels/day (12 mtons/yr). Total 30 mt/yr
• Phase 3) SNG 250 mmcfd (12 mtons/yr) and FTD
  20,000 barrels/day (8 mtons/yr). Total 50 mt/yr
• In subsequent phases, chemical and fertilizer
  plants would be set-up as part of a Mega
  Petro-Chemical Complex which would be supported
  by additional coal mining
• Power transmission line of 500 KV will be planned
  and constructed for 1000 mw power dispersal to
  NTDC Network
• A 36-42 Hi-Pressure Gas Transmission Pipeline
  will be planned and constructed to connect to the
  SSGC Network at Hyderabad / Jamshoro

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5.2 - HYDEL POWER GENERATION

• The country has an estimated Hydro Resources
  Potential of about 45,000 MW, currently whereas
  only 6,500 MW have been installed with 11 share
  in the Energy Mix.
• It is proposed in the long term scenario to
  increase share of Hydro in Primary Energy from
  6,500 MW (11) at present to about 32,100 MW
  (20) by 2030 (30 share in Power Generation)
• This will entail set up of 8,000 MW small/medium
  hydro units on rivers/canals, run of the river
  plants and four large hydro multipurpose
  reservoirs/dams with capacity of about 17,600 MW
  upto 2030
• The four large Hydro Dams are, (i) Kalabagh
  3,800 MW, (ii) Bhasha 4,600 MW, (iii) Bunji
  5,400 MW, (iv) Dasu 3,800 MW
• It is necessary to maintain an optimal
  Hydro/Thermal Mix, in base load operations to
  cater for reduction in output during low hydel
  periods.

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7. SET-UP OF NATIONAL ENERGY AUTHORITY - NEA

• An essential step towards preparation and
  implementation of a National Energy Plan is the
  set-up of a statutory body, The National Energy
  Authority (NEA)
• The NEA would be an independent and focal entity
  with a Chairman and 12 Board members, (6 private
  sector professionals and 6 energy sector experts,
  MDs etc from the Public Sector/GOP)
• The NEA would be responsible for, and have the
  authority to undertake strategic planning in the
  Energy Sector and prepare a comprehensive ENERGY
  POLICY.
• The NEA would prepare an integrated and
  Comprehensive National Energy Plan (NEP) for the
  Short, Medium and Long Term based on robust
  projections on a scientific basis.
• The NEA would also identify, plan and pursue
  implementation of Energy Sector Infrastructure
  augmentation/expansion by the OMCs, PEPCO, SSGC,
  SNGPL etc.
• The NEA would coordinate with the sectoral
  organizations, public companies OMCs, EP
  Companies, IPPs etc and relevant Ministries etc
  for the NEP implementation
• The NEA will also act as a monitoring authority
  for all Energy Sector projects, and ensure
  compliance to project road-maps and milestones

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Figure-VII
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PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY BY SOURCE 2007-2008
ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY SOURCE 2007-2008
Coal Power Generation
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Figure- XII
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PRIMARY ENERGY MIX (a)
Current 2008
2030 Per 2005 Energy Plan
Revised Plan 2030
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Figure- XIII
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ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY SOURCE (b)
Current 2008
2030 Per 2005 Energy Plan
Revised Plan 2030