ASTEC Atmospheric Science Tools for Energy Conservation

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ASTECAtmospheric Science Toolsfor Energy
Conservation

• a project funded by DOE Office of Energy
  Efficiency and Renewable Energy with assistance
  from Oak Ridge National Lab
• Additional information contact Bob Imhoff at
  bob.imhoff_at_baronams.com

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ASTEC Key Team Members

• BAMS Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems
• Numerical model ozone forecasts since 1996
• Supports RPO met and air quality modeling efforts
• Works with EPA / NOAA to implement air quality
  forecast systems
• Implements climatic databases in cooperation with
  NCDC
• NEMAC National Environmental Modeling and
  Analysis Center
• Located at the University of North Carolina at
  Asheville (UNCA)
• The center provides coordination of basic and
  applied research projects
• Operates as an information center regarding
  funding and collaborative opportunities for joint
  research efforts
• NCDC National Climatic Data Center
• Worlds largest climatic data archive
• Experienced suppliers of data to external
  parties, including DOE
• Ongoing effort to increase relevance of NCDC
  archive

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Project Goal Develop tools that enhance the
assessment of EERE technologies

• Environmental Compliance Benefits of EERE
• Software tools that allow the ready
  quantification of EERE environmental benefits
• Encourage the use of benefits for environmental
  compliance/attainment
• Increases awareness, knowledge, use of EERE
• Innovative Climate Data Technologies
• Seek opportunities to use existing climate
  datasets to further EERE programs
• Analysis throughout EERE technology lifecycle
  Design, Development, Siting, Deployment, Use
• Applies to Wind, Solar, Energy Efficiency
• Input to cost/benefit analyses, program planning

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Key Aims of Environmental Compliance Benefits
Analysis

• To enable local, state, and regional
  administrators to qualify EERE technologies for
  use in attaining NAAQS
• replicable, defensible system for estimating the
  emissions reduction enabled by EERE technologies
• Consistent with USEPA Guidance for emissions that
  are Quantifiable, Surplus, Enforceable, Permanent
• Must first estimate fossil fuel power displaced

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Energy EfficiencyPotential Displaced Capacity

• DOE ORNL, The Potential for Energy Efficiency and
  Renewable Energy in North Carolina, April 2003
• Scenarios of EE adoption modeled using NEMS
• Lowered Discount Rates
• High Technology
• Lowered Discount Rates High Technology (LDRHT)
• Best Technology
• Using LDRHT Scenario, ORNL estimated that EE
  could displace 13.6 B kWh electricity annually in
  NC by 2020
• How much power is this? Meet all annual needs of
  1.4 M average homes 1/3 of total residential
  needs in 2002 (by ratio, North Carolina State
  Energy Plan 2003)

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Lowered Discount Rates High Technology Scenario

• Next to most optimistic Scenario for EERE
• Represents substantial movement to efficient
  technologies in lighting, heating, cooling for
  both residential and commercial sectors
• Lowered discount rates (PV analysis) meaning
  consumers allow the payback period for EE to be
  longer (longer payback means greater adoption)
• Methodology follows Scenarios for a Clean Energy
  Future (11/30/2000) by Interlaboratory Working
  Group on Energy Efficiency, Lawrence Berkeley
  National Lab and Oak Ridge National Lab
• Using LDRHT Scenario, ORNL estimated that EE
  could displace 13.6 B kWh electricity annually in
  NC by 2020

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Emissions Reduction PotentialEE Scenario LDRHT

• 13.6 B kWh
• What does this mean in terms of emission
  reductions?
• Using average emission rates for Duke Energy and
  Progress Energy
• in Benchmarking Air Emissions 2002 Emission
  Data NRDC
• Potential to reduce annual NOx emissions by 27k
  tons if power displaced only from coal fired
  units

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Emissions Reduction ImpactAnnual NOx Emissions
in Tons
Rough order of magnitude comparison Reductions
from 1998 utility NOx emissions of 245,000 tons
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Environmental Compliance Benefits Approach

• Concentration on NAAQS attainment focuses effort
  on real-world needs of policy-makers
• Model processes in technically defensible,
  physically realistic ways
• Generation dispatch (eg, NEMS / EMM - DOE)
• Meteorology (MM5 - NCAR)
• Emissions (SMOKE - EPA)
• Chemistry and transport (CMAQ - EPA)
• Link EPA models to dispatch model to give
  consistent picture of generation changes as EERE
  technologies are being implemented
• Choose one region to work with initially
  Southern Appalachians

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Further Impetus for EERE Awareness up, Costs dn
(IBD 11/1/04)

• Wind, for example
• Congress renewed federal tax credit for wind
  energy production in September
• Credit of 1.8 cents per kWhr over first 10 yrs of
  operation, one-third of operating cost
• Installations in 2005 could exceed 2,500 MW
• Wind Energy Assn
• General Electric gt 1.3 B in new orders and
  commitments for wind turbines in October
• State mandates CA 20 renewable by 2017, NY 25
  renewable by 2013
• Ratification of Kyoto Protocol by Russia in
  October boosts support for cleaner energy

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Development of Sensitivity Matrix

• Group sources that will respond similarly to a
  change in demand due to EERE technologies.
• Generation Unit production cost, and
• Location
• Change emissions from a source group
• Model resulting changes in air quality
• Calculate change in concentration per unit change
  in emissions (dC/dQ) for each hour for each grid
  cell
• Store dC/dQ into sensitivity matrix
• Repeat from 2nd step for each source group

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Application of Sensitivity Matrix
New link
Existing Model
New software program
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Public Outreach Haze Forecast Tool

• Class I areas, such as National Parks, are the
  locations of interest affected for the Haze SIPS
• Great Smoky Mountain National Park is the most
  visited park in the US, and is heavily impacted
  by anthropogenic haze
• Forecast results will have meaning for current
  visitors or for those planning visits
• Becomes an element of NPS outreach
• User chooses various actions, including EERE and
  immediately see impact on forecasted view

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Computer Visualization of Forecast Hazeavailable
on web and local kiosk
http//www.atdd.noaa.gov/ETOS_additions/etosprogra
m.htm
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ASTEC Project Benefits

• States User-friendly, technically sound software
  tool for documenting SIP credit-able EERE
  emission reductions
• QSEP consistent with USEPA Guidance of 8/5/04
• DOE Put market data / analysis to work
• Using data to create products that forward
  knowledge base
• ASTEC products of data and analysis products
  feedback to DOE to improve design, development,
  deployment of EERE
• Validation for concurrent DOE projects
• Produce inputs for Cost Benefit analyses
• Public Raise awareness, understanding of EERE
  through use of Forecasting tool
• Increase the adoption of EERE technologies

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Working with VISTAS

• Coordinate our efforts with VISTAS modeling
• Early 2005 VISTAS performing IPM runs
• Possible to include an EERE Scenario?
• Participate in discussions of control strategies
  to see where EERE benefits can be inserted and
  modeled
• We will be starting CMAQ modeling runs 1Q 05 to
  populate Sensitivity Matrix
• Inform VISTAS of results as available
• Need continuing dialogue with VISTAS
• Presenting project to State Air Directors in
  December
• Contact Bob Imhoff at any time for additional
  info
• Will be forming a Steering Committee for ASTEC