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Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of the North Sea

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Title: Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of the North Sea


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Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of the North Sea
  • Keith Brander

This presentation is available from
http//www.ices.dk/globec/data/presentations/
2
  • We do not need to reinvent the wheel(but we
    might want to improve it a bit)

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Metric used in this study
Biotic metrics
Abiotic metrics
Human metrics
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  • approach combines empirical, reductionist and
    holistic methods
  • based on the integrated analysis of 55 primary
    and secondary biotic, abiotic, and human
    variables over a 43 year period
  • integrated analysis shows that the ESS ecosystem
    has changed states from a community dominated by
    large-bodied demersal fish to one dominated by
    small demersal and pelagic fish species and
    benthic macro-invertebrates.

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  • dynamic inter-play between ocean physics, biology
    and exploitation presents a more realistic causal
    scenario than any single component hypothesis,
    such as fishing pressure alone.
  • forces contributing to the stability of the
    alternate state include both top-down processes
    involving strong trophic interactions initiated
    at the apex predator level and bottom-up
    processes involving energy flow and nutrient
    cycling that have fundamentally altered the
    matter and energy flow patterns in the ESS
    ecosystem
  • higher-order variables are identified as early
    warning indicators, sensitive to the underlying
    structural and functional changes
  • they have been determined for an adjacent system
    where systemic changes have not yet been observed
    and predict a potential collapse within a decade.
  • integrated assessment of ecosystems is a great
    challenge and their management requires
    comprehension of ecological systems.

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  • description alone is not sufficient to allow
    comprehension, especially if information
    overload (the disconnect between system
    description and system comprehension) is to be
    avoided and meaningful insights and strategies
    are to emerge.
  • reductionistic analysis involves the dissection
    and identification of key processes or feedback
    mechanisms likely to be operative in an
    ecological system.
  • however, value cannot be ascertained from
    variations in processes, as a directionality of
    time does not exist in such a perspective. In
    fact, the approach has accelerated the
    information overload experienced by all
    stakeholders.
  • holistic approaches are being increasingly used
    to aid in the valuation of ecological systems as
    the directionality of time is made explicit in
    this perspective.
  • we suggest that integrated assessment requires
    not only the integration of descriptive
    information, but also the integration of our
    perception of ecological systems as being both a
    whole and a part.

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An Integrated Assessment will
  • Go beyond Status Reporting
  • Evaluate current drivers and how they have shaped
    the present state
  • Identify important interactions between
    components of the system and how these affect
    system behaviour
  • Evaluate wider consequences (performance) of
    management actions
  • Predict consequences of
  • non-controllable factors such as climate change
  • controllable factors

10
Terms of Reference are to
  • Hold a workshop to produce a preliminary proof
    of concept integrated ecosystem assessment for
    the North Sea.
  • Compile and synthesise material from the twenty
    identified source Working Groups, which have
    been requested to provide data, information and
    indicators
  • Produce summary presentations of the material as
    an overview (e.g., using methods for re-scaling
    and reducing dimensionality traffic lights,
    etc.)
  • Identify gaps in the material provided and the
    subjects covered
  • Review patterns and interactions among the
    indicators. Preliminary description of system
    behaviour (e.g., evidence for regime shift in
    late 1980s) and strength of attribution of causes
    of observed changes
  • Comment on how to measure impacts of past
    management actions at the system level

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North Sea data available for REGNS
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Standardised anomalies of CPR, oceanographic and
fisheries data for the North Sea sorted on first
axis of variation
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The abrupt change in the North Sea in 1987-88 has
been described as a regime shift(Beaugrand
(2004) The North Sea regime shift evidence,
causes, mechanisms and consequences. Progress in
Oceanography 60 245-262)
This and the previous graph were produced by Jae
Choi DFO, Canada
14
Scottish RV trawl catches since 1925(55-61oN
4oE-4oW) Beare et al. ICES CM 2003/Q24
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Terms of Reference are to
  • Hold a workshop to produce a preliminary proof
    of concept integrated ecosystem assessment for
    the North Sea.
  • Compile and synthesise material from the twenty
    identified source Working Groups, which have
    been requested to provide data, information and
    indicators
  • Produce summary presentations of the material as
    an overview (e.g., using methods for re-scaling
    and reducing dimensionality traffic lights,
    etc.)
  • Identify gaps in the material provided and the
    subjects covered
  • Review patterns and interactions among the
    indicators. Preliminary description of system
    behaviour (e.g., evidence for regime shift in
    late 1980s) and strength of attribution of causes
    of observed changes
  • Comment on how to measure impacts of past
    management actions at the system level

17
Changes in plankton, fish distribution and
production
  • (this is from a short review prepared by KB for
    the fourth IPCC Assessment based on papers
    published in Nature (2) Science (2) and elsewhere
    since 2003)
  • The principal climate indicator for the N
    Atlantic, the NAO, has been rising over the past
    30 years and the surface waters of the North
    Atlantic have been warming. This has caused
    extensive changes in the planktonic ecosystem.
    Although the precise mechanisms are not fully
    understood, we can detect consequences for
    plankton production, biodiversity, species
    distribution, and fisheries production.

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High NAO brings strong, warm westerly winter
winds.This projection of future NAO state is
bad news for N Sea cod!
The relative confidence level for this simulation
is low http//www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publicati
ons/documents/14.pdf
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