Trends in North Pacific Cod and Pollock

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Trends in North Pacific Cod and Pollock
Trends in North Pacific Cod and Pollock
James N. Ianelli Alaska Fisheries Science
Center Seattle, WA
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Outline

• Alaska pollock
• Gulf of Alaska
• Eastern Bering Sea
• Bogoslof and Aleutian Islands region
• Russian zone
• Recent US-Russian negotiations
• Pacific cod

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World pollock catch 1981-2002
North America
Donut Hole
Asia
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Pollock Fishery Areas
NBS
EBS
WBS
Sea of Okhotsk
Aleutians
Kamchatka
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Est. 2002 Pollock Catch by area

• Total 2.57 million t

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Conservation Strategies

• Key Quota management acronyms
• ABCs (acceptable biological catch)
• TACs (total allowable catch)
• OFLs (overfishing levels)

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Gulf of Alaska
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Gulf of Alaska pollock age 3 biomass trend
Thousands of tons
2002 survey estimate lowbut 1999 yearclass well
above average
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Gulf of Alaska summary

• Winter 2002 survey estimates low
• 2001 TAC 105.8 thousand tons,
• 2002 TAC 58.25 thousand tons,
• 2003 likely to be between 40-60 thousand tons
• 1999 year class well above average
• Steller sea-lions likely to affect TAC-setting in
  this area

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Eastern Bering Sea Pollock
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Eastern Bering Sea Pollock

• Biomass trends
• Highly dependent on recruitment
• Both highly variable
• Three surveys in 2002
• Limited shelf acoustic survey in winter
• Summer trawl and acoustic surveys
• Issues
• Extent of straddling stock
• Steller sea lions

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Fishery Characteristics for 2002
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Within-year production (E. Bering Sea)
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2002 Winter fishery distribution
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Catch size distribution
Jan-June
July - Dec
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2002 survey data
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Pollock density from bottom-trawl survey
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Bottom temperature and pollock density
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(No Transcript)
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Bottom-trawl survey abundance at age
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Results from integrated model Recruitment
estimates
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EBS Biomass trend
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Change in age-composition estimates
Age
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Steller sea lion population update
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Sea Lion issues

• NEPA, ESA compliance problems by NMFS
• Species still listed as endangered
• Action that may affect recovery of species
  identified (fishing)
• Consultation may be required for the Gulf of
  Alaska pollock (and other) fisheries

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Ecosystem issues

• Committee reviewing North Pacific TAC-setting
  process relative to ecosystem needs
• Report due to Council in December
• May look to Antarctic system (CCAMLR) for meeting
  perceived ecosystem requirements
• Environmental factors increasing in application
  to all fish-stock assessments
• Long-term and short-term productivity

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Other issues

• Marine Stewardship Council
• Final announcement delayed to early next year
• Eastern Bering Sea pollock apparently passed ok
• Essential Fish Habitat requirements
• Pollock fishery important since mid-water
• Cooperative acoustic data collection established
• To monitor pollock abundance in Critical Habitat

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Acoustic return
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Relative sA Survey vs Fishery
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Aleutian Islands Region
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Aleutian Islands Region

• Pollock stock surveyed poorly
• Bottom trawl gear
• Every 2 years
• 2002 estimate 360,000 tons (gt double estimate
  from 1990s)
• Pollock as bycatch only since 1999 for sea lion
  concerns
• Last year quota expectation for 2002 25,000 tons
  
• NOT! Set to bycatch only again
• Pollock prognosis for 2003 bycatch

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Aleutian Islands recent surveys
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Basin or Donut Hole Region

• Central Bering Sea Convention
• Some experimental fishing/surveys
• Poor catch rates
• Bogoslov survey index of this stock still low
• Estimates of over 1 million tons may trigger an
  International Basin fishery
• Recruitment patterns appear to have changed
• Non contiguous parties wish for a quota
• Closures since 1992
• Recovery not apparent

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Bogoslov survey estimates
Millions of tons
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Russian Zone

• Catch, Survey information
• Central Bering Sea consultation

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Russian stock conditionNavarin basin biomass
estimates
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Russian stock condition Western Bering Sea
biomass trend

• Thousands of tons age 2

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Russian stock conditionSpawning stock size in
Sea of Okhotsk

• Thousands of tons

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US-Russian bilateral meetings

• The disputed agreement of 1990 was signed by
  Eduard Shevardnadze, then USSR Minister of
  Foreign Affairs, and James Baker, US Secretary of
  State, for the USA to overtake an approximate
  50,000 square kilometres of sea from Russia. The
  strip abounds in fish. Russia's State Fishing
  Committee experts estimate the annual catch of
  Pacific pollock alone at 200,000 tons. The
  agreement cost Russia an approximate 2.8 million
  tons of fish at more than US1.4 billion,
  complain experts.

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Sept 2002 Moscow ICC meeting report

• The U.S. delegation made clear that the
  United States is not prepared to review or
  renegotiate the maritime boundary treaty, though
  the U.S. was prepared to discuss other areas of
  cooperation.

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Observed catch
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Russian quota breakdown for 2002Total 930,000
tons
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Pollock Summary

• Gulf of Alaska
• 2001 summer and 2002 winter survey estimates low
• Good sign of 1999 year class (impact expected by
  2004)
• TAC prognosis again about 50 kt
• Aleutian Islands
• Stocks Increasing
• Steller sea lion issues close to resolution
• TAC may be re-instated 35,000 t
• Aleutian Basin - Bogoslof
• Fishery continues to be unlikely in near future
• Eastern Bering Sea
• Stock outlook on track in near term, ABC expected
  to decline
• 1996 year-class not as prevalent in recent
  surveys
• 2003 TAC likely to be around 1,480 kt
• Russia
• Sea of Okhotsk and other areas may be undergoing
  species shift
• Herring
• Quota reductions may increase illegal fishing

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Pacific Cod Abundance trends
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Sea lion issues also concern Pacific cod

• P. cod and Atka mackerel considered with pollock
  as essential for sea lions
• Issue was the level of concentrations during
  spawning seasons within Critical Habitat
• Due to the higher complexity, management
  problems more difficult
• Multiple gear-types and fishing sectors

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Pacific Cod Outlook 2002

• Gulf of Alaska projected ABC/TAC stable or slight
  increase
• Eastern Bering Sea ABC/TAC likely to be flat
• Strong year classes evident but survey estimate
  lower
• Russian Pacific cod considered stable and small

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EBS Pacific cod biomass trend