John C. Felmy Chief Economist American Petroleum Institute

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John C. FelmyChief Economist American Petroleum
Institute Felmyj_at_api.org
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Forecast of U.S. Energy Growth
31 Growth
(1.1/yr.)
2030 Outlook
2005 Actual
(100 quads)
(131 quads)
Nuclear
Nuclear
8
7
Coal
Oil
Oil
23
40
40
Gas
6
23
Gas
7
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Renewables
Renewables
Source EIA, AEO2007
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Future U.S. Energy Demand

• The U.S. will consume 28 percent more oil and 19
  percent more natural gas in 2030 than in 2005.

Projections
History
Petroleum
Coal
quadrillion Btu
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Nonhydro renewables
Hydropower
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Source EIA, AEO 2007
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2005 2030 Change
Consumption (Quads)
Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum Liquid Fuels and Other Petroleum 40.61 52.17 28.5
Share 40.5 39.8
Natural Gas 22.63 26.89 18.8
22.6 20.5
Oil and Gas 63.25 79.06 25.0
63.1 60.3
Coal 22.87 34.14 49.3
22.8 26.0
Oil, Gas and Coal 86.12 113.20 31.4
86.0 86.3
Nuclear Power 8.13 9.33 14.8
8.1 7.1
Hydropower 2.71 3.09 13.8
2.7 2.4
Biomass 2.38 4.06 70.5
2.4 3.1
Other Renewable Energy Other Renewable Energy 0.76 1.44 88.7
0.8 1.1
Other 0.08 0.04 -48.3
0.1 0.0
Total 100.19 131.16 30.9
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EIA, AEO 2007
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Future Global Energy Demand

• Global energy demand will increase by more than
  50 percent between now and 2030.

Source IEA
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Future U.S. Energy Demand

• The U.S. will consume more energy even with
  efficiency improvements

Source US DOE
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U.S. Supplies of Crude and Products
Other countries include United Kingdom, Kuwait,
Ecuador, Brazil, Norway, Korea-South, Aruba,
Trinidad and Tobago, Columbia, Libya, Argentina,
Chad, Germany, Equatorial Guinea, France, Gabon,
Belgium, Sweden, Indonesia, Finland, Vietnam,
Estonia, Yemen, Brunei, Italy, Lithuania,
Cameroon, Malaysia, Latvia, Portugal, China,
Netherlands, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Denmark,
India, and Bahrain.
EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly, May 2007
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Worlds largest oil companies based on liquid
reserves
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Source Oil Gas Journal
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Who owns Big Oil? (Holdings of oil stocks, 2004)
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Capital Spending
Source Oil and Gas Journal, April 2, 2007
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U.S. Crude Oil Resources(undiscovered
technically recoverable federal resources)
Lower 48, onshore 7 Bbl
Lower 48, onshore 7 Bbl
Atlantic offshore 3.8 Bbl
Pacific offshore 10.5 Bbl
Atlantic offshore 3.8 Bbl
Alaska onshore 18 Bbl Alaska offshore 26.6 Bbl
Gulf offshore/deepwater 44.9 Bbl
112 billion barrels is enough oil to power over
60 million cars for 60 years AND heat over 25
million homes for 60 years.
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Source MMS, USGS, and API Calculations
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U.S. Natural Gas Resources(undiscovered
technically recoverable federal resources)
Lower 48, onshore 167 Tcf
Atlantic offshore 37 Tcf
Pacific offshore 18.3 Tcf
Alaska onshore 69 Tcf Alaska offshore 132 Tcf
Gulf offshore 232.5 Tcf
656 trillion cubic feet is enough natural gas to
heat 60 million homes for 160 years.
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Source MMS, USGS, and API Calculations
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Number of refineries declines but capacity expands
Source DOE
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Environmental Expenditures since 1990
Source API Statistics
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Highway and Non-road Diesel Timelines
2006 Refinery June 1 Terminal September
1 Retail October 15
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Technology Our Industrys Investments
(2000-2005)
135 Billion
98 billion (73)
89 billion (66)
By Technology
By Investor
32 billion (23)
31 billion (23)
15 billion (11)
5 billion (4)
Source IER and CEE
Oil Gas Companies
Other Private
Federal Government
Frontier Hydrocarbons
EndUse
Non Hydrocarbons
16
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Leading emerging energy investments by U.S. firms
(2000-2005)
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U.S. Corn Use 2006-2007
Source USDA
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Ethanol in Brazil
Fuel Demand (MBD)
Brazilian Ethanol (Sugar Cane Derived) -
Ethanol meets 45 of Brazils Gasoline Demand
- Lowest ethanol production costs in the world
- Climate, Geography, Labor costs conducive to
sugar production - Brazilian model not
applicable to US in terms of scale/cost -
U.S. Tariff to imported ethanol is 0.54/gallon
Gasoline
Ethanol
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Our Priorities

• Efficiency improve our own and encourage
  efficiency in other industries and among
  consumers.
• Technology increase investments in and use of
  advanced energy technologies to develop all
  sources of energy cleanly and responsibly.
• Diversity increase access to oil and natural
  gas supplies both here at home and around the
  world.

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Energy Policy Perspectives

• Encourage energy efficiency
• Encourage investment in long-term energy
  initiatives and advanced technologies.
• Reduce barriers to increasing domestic supplies
• Rely on market forces to allocate products.
• Refrain from new taxes that make it more
  expensive to develop our domestic supplies.
• Support our need to participate actively in
  global energy markets rather than isolate the
  U.S.

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