The Transition in Armenia

1
The Transition in Armenia
USAID/EE/PO Program Office Bureau for Europe and
Eurasia U.S. Agency for International Development
February 2005
2
Economic and Democratic Reforms in 2004
5
EU-15
4
3
Economic Reforms
2
EU-15
1
1
2
3
4
5
Democratic Reforms
Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale, with 5
representing most advanced. USAID drawing from
Freedom House, Nations in Transit 2004 (2004),
and EBRD, Transition Report 2004 (November 2004).
3
Economic Reform in Armenia in 2004
First Stage Economic Reform
Small Scale
5
Privatization,
4.0
4
3
2
Large Scale
Privatization,
1
Trade and
3.3
Foreign
Exchange, 5.0
Price
Liberalization ,
5.0
Ratings are based on a scale from 1 to 5, with 5
representing the best score. USAID, Monitoring
Country Progress in CEE Eurasia 9 (2004
forthcoming) drawing from EBRD, Transition Report
2004 (November 2004).
4
Private Sector Share of GDP 1990-2004
80
70
60
50
40
of GDP from Private Sector
30
20
15
15
10
10
9
10
0
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Armenia
Eurasia
Northern Tier
CEE
1990
EBRD, Transition Report 2004 (November 2004 and
earlier editions).
5
Democratic Reforms in Armenia in 2003
Electoral
Process, 1.9
5
4
Corruption, 1.9
3
Civil Society,
3.5
2
1
Independent
Media, 2.3
Rule of Law,
2.4
Governance /
Public Admin,
2.6
Ratings are based on a scale from 1 to 5, with 5
representing the best score. USAID, Monitoring
Country Progress in CEE Eurasia 9 (2004)
drawing from Freedom House, Nations in Transit
2004.
6
Democratic Freedoms
5
Northern Tier CEE
4
3
greater freedoms
Democratic Freedoms
2
1
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Ratings from 1 to 5, with 5 representing greatest
development of political rights/civil liberties.
The data are an aggregation of Freedom Houses
political rights and civil liberties indices
Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2005 (2005
and previous editions).
7
Economic and Democratic Reforms in Armenia
5
4
03
2004
2002
3
2001
Economic Reforms
2000
1998-99
1997
1996
1995
2
93-94
1992
1991
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
Democratic Reforms
Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale, with 5
representing the most advanced. USAID drawing
from EBRD, Transition Report 2004 (November 2004)
Freedom House, NIT (2004).
8
(No Transcript)
9
Democratic Reforms in Armenia
5
4
Democratic Reforms
greater reforms
3
2
1
Civil Society
Governance
Rule of Law
Electoral Process
Anti-Corruption
Independent Media
Pub. Admin.
1996
Freedom House, Nations in Transit 2004 (2004)
Ratings from 1 to 5, with 5 representing greatest
progress in democratic reforms.
10
Corruption Perceptions in 2004
(Transparency International)
1
1.5
1.5
2
2.2
2.3
2.8
3
3.9
4.2
4
4.8
5
Corruption Perceptions Index
6
7
7.5
8
9
9.7
10
Italy
Haiti
USA
Brazil
Sudan
Finland
El Salvador
Bangladesh
Mozambique
Sierra Leone
Transparency International, Corruption
Perceptions Index 2004 (2004). Ratings on a 1 to
10, with 10 representing least amount of
corruption.
11
Bribes in Businesses in Europe Eurasia
5
5
Bribe Frequency 1999 2002
Bribes as Share of Revenue 2002
4.2
4
4
3.8
3.3
3
3
2.8
2.8
1 Never, 6Always

2
2
1.4
0.9
1
1
0.9
0.4
0
0
1999
2002
Albania
Georgia
Russia
Estonia
Azerbaijan
Kyrgyzstan
Armenia
Czech Republic
World Bank, Anticorruption in Transition 2,
Corruption in Enterprise-State Interactions in
Europe and Central Asia 1999-2002 (2004).
12
Share of Captor Firms in 1999 2002
60
50
40
30

20
10
0
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Lithuania
Bosnia
Russia
Bulgaria
Armenia
Herz
World Bank, Anticorruption in Transition 2,
Corruption in Enterprise-State Interactions in
Europe and Central Asia 1999-2002 (2004).
13
Degree of Impact of State Capture in 2002
World Bank, Anticorruption in Transition 2,
Corruption in Enterprise-State Interactions in
Europe and Central Asia 1999-2002 (2004).
14
Starting and Closing a Business
225
10
Years to Close a Business
Days to Start a Business
Days to Register a Business
Years to go Through Bankruptcy
9
200
8
175
7
150
6
125
5
100
4
75
3
50
2
25
1
0
0
World Bank, Doing Business in 2005 (2004).
15
Economic Performance and Human Capital in
2002-2004
5
4
Economic Performance
3
2
1
1
2
3
4
5
Human Capital
USAID, MCP9 (2004) drawing from World Bank,
World Development Indicators 2004 (2004) UNICEF,
Social Monitor 2004 (2004) EBRD, Transition
Report (November 2004) Ayyagari, Beck, and
Demirguc-Kunt, Small and Medium Enterprises
across the Globe A New Database, World Bank
Policy Research Working Paper 3127, (August
2003).
16
Economic Performance Index in Armenia in 2002 -
2004
Private Sector
Share, 4.5
5
External Debt
4
GDP, 3.5
Share of
3
employment in
SMEs, 0.5
2
1
Export share
3 Year Avg
of GDP, 1.0
Inflation, 4.5
FDI pc
GDP as 89
cumulative,
GDP, 3.0
1.5
Ratings are based on a scale from 1 to 5, with 5
representing the best score. USAID, Monitoring
Country Progress in CEE Eurasia 9 (2004)
drawing from World Bank, World Development
Indicators 2004 (2004) EBRD, Transition Report
(November 2004), M. Ayyagari, T. Beck, and A.
Demirguc-Kunt, Small and Medium Enterprises
across the Globe World Bank Policy Research
Working Paper 3127, August 2003. SME data no
later than 1998.
17
Real GDP as of 1989 GDP
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
1989 100
60
50
40
30
20
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
EBRD, Transition Report (November 2004).
18
Employment, Real Wages and GDP in Armenia (as
1989)
120
GDP
100
80
1989100
60
40
Employment in Industry
20
0
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
EBRD, Transition Report 2004 (November 2004 and
earlier editions) UNICEF, Social Monitor 2004
(October 2004) and UNECE, Economic Survey of
Europe, 2004 No. 2 (2004).
19
Informal Economy in 2002-03
80
70
60
50
40
of the Size of GDP
30
20
10
0
Schneider, Friedrich, The Size of the Shadow
Economies of 145 Countries all over the World
First Results over the Period 1999 to 2003
(December 2004).
20
Cumulative Foreign Direct Investment 1989-2004
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
US per capita
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Latvia
Poland
Estonia
Hungary
Slovakia
Slovenia
Lithuania
Czech Republic
EBRD, Transition Report (November 2004).
21
Remittances as GDP
30
25
20
15
GDP
10
5
0.2
0
EMU
World Bank
World Bank, World Development Indicators (2004)
UNICEF, Social Monitor 2004 (October 2004).
22
In Migration and Out Migration in the World
0.5
0.4
0.3
EMU
Migrants per 1,000 persons
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
World Bank, World Development Indicators (2004).
Migration and emigration are calculated as
residuals from total population change less the
natural change in population.
23
Net Migration Rates
0.5
High Income
EMU
LAC
0.0
EE
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
Migrants per 1,000 persons
-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
-3.5
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
World Bank, World Development Indicators (2004).
Migration and emigration are calculated as
residuals from total population change less the
natural change in population.
24
Fertility Rates in EE
5
4
Tajikistan
3
Children per Woman
2
Replacement Rate 2.1
1
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
World Bank, World Development Indicators (2004).
Missing values were interpolated.
25
Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)
By Country of Origin
400
350
300
250
200
Refugees and IDPs per 1,000 Persons
150
100
50
0
IDPs
Refugees
UNHCR, 2002 Statistics on Asylum-Seekers,
Refugees and Others of Concern to UNHCR
(2002). Refugees are foreign persons granted
humanitarian status or temporary protection as
recognized by the 1951 UN Refugee Convention.
Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) are citizens
who have been displaced from their homes and are
under the protection of the UNHCR.
26
Human Capital Index in Armenia in 2002-03
Per Capita
5
Income, 1.5
Public
4
Expenditure
Secondary
Health, 0.5
School
3
Enrollment,
2
2.0
1
Public
Expenditure
Under 5
Education,
Mortality, 3.0
0.5
Life
Expectancy,
4.5
Ratings are based on a scale from 1 to 5, with 5
representing the best score. USAID, Monitoring
Country Progress in CEE Eurasia 9 (2004)
drawing from World Bank, World Development
Indicators 2004 (2004) UNICEF, Social Monitor
2004 (2004).
27
Life Expectancy at Birth
Armenia
Georgia
Southern Tier CEE
Years for total Population
Northern Tier CEE
Eurasia
a. World Bank estimate. b. UNICEF estimate. World
Bank, World Development Indicators 2004 (April
2004). Missing data were estimated by
interpolation.
28
Infant Mortality Rates
120
110
100
90
80
70
Per 1,000 Live Births
60
50
40
30
23
20
15
13
10
10
0
Northern Tier
CEE
1980
1990
1995
2002
World Bank, World Development Indicators 2004
(April 2004). West NIS consists of Belarus,
Moldova, and Ukraine.
29
Poverty in Armenia
70
67
Overall Poverty
Extreme Poverty
59
60
55
51
50
40
35
30

30
23
18
20
10
0
Total
Yerevan
Other
Rural
Total
Yerevan
Other
Rural
urban
urban
98/99
IMF, Republic of Armenia 2004 Article IV
Consultation, Sixth Review Under the Poverty
Reduction and Growth Facility, and Request for
Waiver of Performance Criteria (December 2004).
30
Tuberculosis Incidence
180
160
140
120
100
TB Cases per 100,000 persons
80
60
40
20
EU-15
0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
WHO, European Health for All Database (2004).
31
Public Expenditure on Health
EMU
Czech Republic
OECD
Romania
GDP
Azerbaijan
ARMENIA
Georgia
UNICEF, Social Monitor (2004) World Bank, World
Development Indicators (2004).
32
Smoking Prevalence in Adults in 1999-01
80
70
60
50
40
Percentage
33
30
21
20
10
0
Male
Female
France
World Health Organization Tobacco Control
Database 2004. EE is a sample of 19 countries.
33
Tuberculosis Incidence
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Romania
Georgia
TB Cases per 100,000 persons
Russia
Ukraine
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Slovenia
EU-15
WHO, European Health for All Database (2004).
34
Public Expenditure on Education
10
9
8
7
6
OECD
GDP
5
Developing Countries
4
3
2
1
0
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
UNICEF, Social Monitor (2004) World Bank, World
Development Indicators (2004).
35
Secondary School Enrollment
120
Poland
100
80
of 15 - 18 population
60
40
20
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Gross rates general secondary plus
vocational/technical secondary combined. UNICEF,
Social Monitor (2004).
36
Economic Freedom and Ruling Justly in 2003-2004
Drawn from The Millennium Challenge Account
dataset.  The sample consists of 82 countries.
Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale, with 5 being
the most advanced. Economic freedom consists of
six indicators (a) country credit rating (b)
inflation (c) regulatory quality (d) fiscal
balance (e) trade policy and (f) days to start
a business.  Ruling justly consists of six
indicators (a) control of corruption (b) rule
of law (c) voice and accountability (d)
government effectiveness (e) civil liberties
and (f) political rights.
37
Economic Freedom and Investing in People in 2003
- 2004
Drawn from The Millennium Challenge Account
dataset.  The sample consists of 82 countries.
Ratings are based on a 1 to 5 scale, with 5 being
the most advanced. Economic freedom consists of
six indicators (a) country credit rating (b)
inflation (c) regulatory quality (d) fiscal
balance (e) trade policy and (f) days to start
a business.  Investing in people consists of four
indicators (a) immunization rate (DPT and
measles) (b) primary education completion rate
(c) public primary education spending and (d)
public expenditure on health.
38
Armenia MCA in 2003- 2004
Ratings are based on a scale from 1 to 5, with 5
representing the best score. The Sample consists
of 82 countries. Data are drawn from The
Millennium Challenge Account dataset.