Russian Security Policy

1
Russian Security Policy

• Doug Perkins

2
TODAYS AGENDA

• News
• Administrative Stuff
• Web Site of the Day
• Discussion
• Russian Foreign and Security Policy

3
ADMINISTRIVIA

• Autumn Quarter Course Recommendations
• Sorry about the Exam Problems
• I will have them graded by Tuesday
• Reclamae/challenges will be due the following
  Tuesday
• Lunch Tomorrow
• Michael Cohen, Matt Ross, David Staubitz and
• Meet at Wexner Café (basement) at noon
• Readings
• Do NOT let yourself fall behind
• Ideally, we would use the readings as a
  foundation on which we would build during class
• For today, Staar reading is optional- NSC and MD
  are required
• The Conference was GREAT

4
ADMINISTRIVIA (contd)

• Essay Grades
• A 95
• A- 93
• A-/B 90
• B 88
• B 85
• B- 83
• B-/C 80
• C 75
• D 65
• E 55
• Zero Zero (so)

5
WEB SITE I

• PONARS
• Program On New Approaches to Russian Security
• http//www.fas.harvard.edu/ponars/
• The Policy Memos are the Best
• Check out what our own Ted Hopf has to say!
• Conference Overview is Excellent

6
(No Transcript)
7
WEB SITE II

• Russian Embassy in Washington DC
• www.russianembassy.org
• Good for Russian Foreign Policy
• Includes The Foreign Policy Concept of the
  Russian Federation
• Also has a link to the Foreign Ministry
  (transcripts!)
• In English!!!

8
(No Transcript)
9
WARM-UP DISCUSSION

• Should I have you study Tsarist and Soviet
  History?
• Why bother?
• Historical legacies, path dependency, evolution
  vs. adaptationism
• What caused the collapse of the Soviet Union
• Hypotheses
• Tests
• Implications for Russian policy

• Russia is Finished
• The Atlantic Monthly
• www.theatlantic.com
• Descent of Russia
• October 1993
• The Rule of Lawlessness
• Oligarchs at the Trough
• The Death of the Common Good
• Putin the Terrible
• Humiliation in Uniform
• Zaire with Permafrost

10
POLICY OVERVIEW

• Desires/Objectives
• Secure borders
• Imperial ambitions?
• Constraints
• Economic problems
• Political problems
• Military problems
• Challenges
• (list and prioritize)
• Resulting Policies
• Foreign policy focuses on near-abroad
• Opportunistic policy towards all else

11
LIMITED RESOURCES

• Economic collapse
• Move to market
• Fortunes tied to commodity markets
• Defense industry was crown jewel
• Still isat least in RD
• Limited fielding
• Local production is export driven/supported
• Economic statecraft?

12
POLITICAL PROBLEMS

• Debate over direction and priorities
• But not as much as before
• Russia needs the West
• But regrets it
• Who is in charge?
• Regions becoming fiefdoms
• Some enterprises autonomous/influential
• Bureaucracy very weak

13
MILITARY PROBLEMS

• Recruitment problems
• Pay problems
• Supply and maintenance problems
• Training problems
• Recent deployments
• Afghanistan, Chechnya, Kosovo, Dagestan
• Some bright spots
• Civil-military relations
• Civilian control
• but 1991, 1993, 1995
• Potential for a coup low

14
OUT OF WEAKNESS...

• Pragmatic two pronged policy
• Work with the West (PFP, Balkans, Space)
• And oppose it (Balkans, Cyprus)
• Work with the near abroad (CIS, Belarus)
• And demand cooperation
• More pragmatic defense policy
• Sufficiency
• Rapid response
• Focus on strategic, security forces
• Take advantage of favorable intel climate

15
WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT IN THE FUTURE?

• Increasing use of security and peace-making
  forces in near abroad
• Continued reliance on strategic deterrence
• Continue development and export of excellent
  systems
• Mixed strategy vis a vis the west
• Huntingtons Clash of Civilizations?

16
ON THURSDAY

• Go over the various foreign, security, military,
  and information doctrines
• Count Tanks
• Next week
• Chechnya!!!

17
QUESTIONS and DISCUSSION