Second National Communication

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• Second National Communication
• of the Kyrgyz Republic
• under the UN Framework
• Convention on Climate Change
• Zuhra Abaihanova
• Climate Change Policy Adviser
• UNDP Environmental Programme in KR
• Side event Bonn Climate Change Talks, 5 June 2009

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Key challenges under the SNC preparation

• Lack of institutional, technical and financial
  capacity to
• maintain regular GHG inventory process
• provide the long-term climate forecasting
• re-assess the long-term hydro-power potential of
  the country
• Lack of legal potential to deal with climate
  change issues at the sub-national and sector
  levels (laws, acts, methodologies)
• Insufficient policy-makers awareness and support
  to climate change related activities
  (adaptation, mitigation)

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Main outcomes GHG inventory

• Greenhouse gas inventory for 20012005 and
  re-assessment of the time period of 1990- 2000
• Sectors
• Energy
• Industrial processes
• Use of solvents and other production
• Agriculture
• Land use, land use change and forestry
• Wastes.
• GHGs CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC,PFC, SF6
• Gases-precursors CO, NOx, NMVOC, SOx

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GHG emission sum per sectors
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Total emission of gases-precursors per gases
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Main outcomes Vulnerability and Adaptation
Observed climate change for
1885-2005, centigrade. According to the
assessment based on the instrumental observations
from 1883 to 2005, an average temperature trend
for the republic made up 0.79? for 100
years. In average, by the end of the century the
air temperature will increase from 4? to
6?. Precipitation will change in the range of
-3 to 2.
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Vulnerability and Adaptation

• Sectors
• Water resources
• Vulnerability indicators - parameters of
  glaciers, volume of the surface water-flow,
  parameters of lakes
• Agriculture
• Vulnerability indicators - heat availability,
  productivity of various types of crops and
  pastures
• Population health
• Vulnerability indicators morbidity and
  mortality rate
• Climatic emergency situations
• Vulnerability indicators - frequency of
  mudflows, landslides, breaches of
  high-mountainous and glacial lakes, avalanches

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VA Water resources

• Glaciers number
• The 60th about 8200
• 2100 - 142-1484
• Glaciers volume
• 2000 - 420 cubic km
• 2100 - 40-170 cubic km
• Surface water flow
• Current status 47 cubic km
• 2100 - 24 - 33 cubic km

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State of glaciation by 2100 As compared to the
Glacier Catalogue of the 60s. Extant glaciers
marked with dark blue, the melted marked with red.
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VA Agriculture
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VA Agriculture
Crops productivity
Assessment of change trends in the main crops
productivity till 2100 per regions

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VA Population health

• Vulnerability assessment covered only such
  diseases, as
• cardiovascular diseases,
• acute intestinal infections, and
• malignant neoplasms.
• Increase in morbidity and mortality rates
  connected to cardiovascular diseases, acute
  intestinal infections.
• Forecast for cancer morbidity revealed the
  opposite dependencies (increased for women and
  slightly reduced for men).
• Groups of risk children and aged people.

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Expected monthly average morbidity rate for acute
intestinal infections in Bishkek city under two
climatic scenarios (per 100 thousand people)
VA Population health
Expected average annual morbidity rate for
cardiovascular system diseases for Chui region
(per 100 thousand people)
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VA Dynamics of emergency situations for
expected climate change
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Main outcome Climate change mitigation

• Assessment of GHG emissions under three
  scenarios of the Republics development
• A - with no mitigation actions been undertaken,
  i.e. with preservation of all existing conditions
  and correlations at the national level, but in
  view of worldwide tendencies of technologies
  development
• ? - taking into account the mitigation actions
  defined in the national and sector development
  plans
• ? - taking into account the mitigation actions in
  line with the national and sector development
  plans, as well as additional actions to be
  undertaken within long-term outlook.

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Estimated cost and expected emission reduction in
2100 from the measures stipulated in the
national and sector development plans and from
additional measures
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Experience and lessons learnt

• The methodologies for estimation of GHG emission
  from the sources not covered by the IPCCC
  Guidelines have been developed and used blast
  works, antimony and mercury production, secondary
  metal fusion inventory time series continued
• Assessment of retrospective climate change
  tendencies has been done by means of the national
  method - method of annual changes analysis and
  gave a possibility to use all available
  observations.That helped to receive a continuous
  line of climate change trends since 1983.
• Synergy in collaboration with other relevant
  activities in the country and programme approach
  have effectively resulted in incorporation of the
  SNC developments and recommendations into the
  Country Development Strategy and other strategic
  development documents at the national,
  sub-national and local levels.

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Recommended studies under the TNC

• GHG inventory time series continued
• Fuller vulnerability assessment for the
  population health at the national level ( the SNC
  studies are of fragmentary character as cover
  separate regions and the capital)
• Vulnerability assessment for the sector of
  agriculture with a use of modeling methods (i.e.
  modeling of crop productivity assessment related
  to CC)
• Re-assessment of hydro-power potential of the
  country in view of the long-term CC forecast, as
  well as agricultural needs, water distribution at
  the CA regional level, etc.

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Thank you for your kind attention!