The TPI Approach

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The TPI Approach

• Strategic thinking
• Strategic thinking tools
• Systems thinking
• System dynamics tools

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Strategic Thinking

• Mission
• Mandates
• Stakeholders
• Strategic options
• Action programs

• Goals
• Political feasibility
• Means to ends
• Ownership

3
System Dynamics

• Dynamic thinking
• Feedback thinking
• Quantitative thinking
• Thinking about accumulations
• Thinking algebraically
• Laboratory thinking
• Computer simulation experiments

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Cognitive Shifts Required

• Verb phrases to quantities
• Rich detail to useful aggregation
• Arrow links to algebra
• Goals as heads to goals in goal-seeking
  feedback loops
• Events to dynamic behavior
• Decisions to policy structure

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Hints from Strategic Thinking to Look Deeper

• A head that looks like a means or a tail
• suggests on the verge of a feedback loop
• Causal loops in the cause map
• suggests dynamic analysis is needed
• Numbers are needed to be sure
• suggests simulation is needed

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Goals as Heads
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Goals in goal-seeking loops
Internal changes
Unintended effects
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Two kinds of feedback loops

• Positive loops
• self-reinforcing
• growth producing
• destabilizing
• accelerating
• even number of s
• Symbolized by

• Negative loops
• counteracting
• goal seeking
• stabilizing
• balancing
• odd number of s
• Symbolized by

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Examples of Reinforcing Loops
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Typical Reinforcing Loop Behaviors
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• Self-reinforcing dynamics in the GORA case?

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Typical Counteracting Loop Behaviors
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Guidelines for Conceptualization

• Focus on a problem.
• Dont try to build a model of a system.
• Graph dynamics of key variables.
• Focus on patterns of behavior over time, not
  events
• Distinguish obvious stocks and flows from other
  quantities.
• Set model boundaries.
• Temporal the time horizon
• Conceptual whats included and excluded
• Causal whats endogenous and exogenous
• Develop loop diagrams.
• Explain the problem behavior in terms of feedback
  structure.
• Start simply. Build to complexity and
  completeness.