SOLAR VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE

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SOLAR VARIABILITY ANDCLIMATE
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HAS THE EARTH WARMED?
Climatic Research Unit, UK
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HAS THE EARTH WARMED?
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MANKIND - EARTH
CO
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SUN - EARTH
Mathew (5)
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SUN - EARTH
The solar open magnetic field, solar wind and
energetic particles affect the Earth's
magnetosphere and ionosphere
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SUN - EARTH
Correlations between solar activity and climate
indicators
Friis-Christensen Lassen (1994)
Cycle length NH temperature
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SUN - EARTH
H. Avercamp
Correlations between solar activity and climate
indicators
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SUN - EARTHPossible Mechanisms

• Total irradiance variations
  energy input into the Earth's
  atmosphere
• UV irradiance variations
  changes in stratospheric chemistry
• Modulation of cosmic ray flux by solar magnetism
  
  changes in cloud cover

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VARIABLE SUN
2000
1996
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PASSAGE OF A SUNSPOT GROUP
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FLUX TUBES
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PASSAGE OF A FACULAR GROUP
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3- COMPONENT MODEL
F(?) - quiet Sun flux (Fontenla
et al. 1993)
F(?) - sunspot flux separate
umbra/penumbra (cool Kurucz
models)
??(t) - filling factor of sunspots
(MDI continuum)
s
F(?) - facular flux (modified
P-model Fontenla et al. 1993
Unruh et al. 2000)
??(t) - filling factor of faculae
(MDI magnetograms)
f
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FILLING FACTORS
????
f
?? 1 (or 0)? ??
s
?? 1-????-??
q
s
f
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TOTAL FLUX
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TSI 1996 - 2001
Krivova et al. 2002
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MODEL VS. OBSERVATIONS
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SPECTRAL IRRADIANCE
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SECULAR CHANGEStellar Evidence
Baliunas Jastrow 1990
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SECULAR CHANGEHeliospheric Evidence
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SECULAR CHANGEHeliospheric Evidence
1996
2000
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SECULAR CHANGEHeliospheric Evidence
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SOLAR VARIABILITYAND CLIMATE
Solanki Krivova 2002