How Do Economics and Environment Drive Our Energy Choices

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How Do Economics and Environment Drive Our Energy
Choices
Henry D. Jacoby Joint Program on the Science and
Policy of Global Change Massachusetts Institute
of Technology

• MIT Club of Washington
• 14 February 2006

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Energy-Climate Scenario Kit
Global Energy Economy
CO2 policy
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MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) Version
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Energy-Climate Scenario Kit
Global Energy Economy
CO2 policy
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Pre-industrial ? 275 ppmv
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What is the level of risk?
Thought experiment ?T to 2100, no policy
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What is the level of risk?
Thought experiment ?T to 2100, no policy
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DEPLETION OF SUMMER SEA ICE
Observed sea ice September 1979
Observed sea ice September 2003
These two images, constructed from satellite
data, compare arctic sea ice concentrations in
September of 1979 and 2003. September is the
month in which sea ice is at its yearly minimum
and 1979 marks the first year that data of this
kind became available in meaningful form. The
lowest concentration of sea ice on record was in
September 2002.
Source ACIA, Impacts of a Warming Arctic,
Climate Impact Assessment Report, Cambridge
University Press, 2004
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STABILITY OF TUNDRA AND PERMAFROST
Projected
Now
Changes in summer sea-ice extent and tree-line
are projected to occur by the end of this
century. The change in the permafrost boundary
assumes that present areas of discontinuous
permafrost will be free of any permafrost in the
future and this is likely to occur beyond the
21st century.
Source ACIA, Impacts of a Warming Arctic,
Climate Impact Assessment Report, Cambridge
University Press, 2004
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What would we gain with stabilization 550 ppm?
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What Would Stabilization Require? An Experiment

• A 550 ppmv target (twice pre-industrial)
• All nations impose the same marginal penalty on
  CO2 emissions
• Means of solving the burden-sharing issue is left
  unresolved
• A policy scenario for exploring the implications
  of the target

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Scale of The Challenge

• For 1 GtC reduction in 2050
• 1000 MW electrics with CO2 capture (800)
• 1000 MW nuclear stations (700)
• 1 MW wind turbines (1 million)
• Double fuel economy of cars (2 billion)
• . . . None economic accepted today . . .
• To achieve any target now discussed
• Price ( regulatory) penalty on CO2 emissions
• Technology advance to lower the cost of low-CO2
  energy supply and use of energy services
• . . . Only policy involving BOTH will work .
  . .

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2.50/gal gas tax
Current ETS price
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The Climate Regime
Framework Convention on Climate Change
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Application of the Kit to 2020
Global Energy Economy
CO2 policy
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Not to Despair Low-Cost Gains Have Value

• The timing is bad for achievement of frequently
  discussed climate goals
• A weak regime may be all we get for many years,
  but it will lower climate risk

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Now Your Turn!
Global Energy Economy
CO2 policy