U'Trieste Lecture

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GENSPACEAir Traffic Management
Philippe DEBELS CEATS Research Development and
Simulation centre, Budapest
European Organisation for the Safety of Air
Navigation
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ATM Overview

• Today
• The Air Transport System
• Analysis - Performance
• Tomorrow
• Forecast
• Strategy Documents

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ATM TodayAir Transport System Actors

• Main actors
• Airspace users The Airlines
• Airports
• Air Navigation Service Providers

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ATM TodayAir Transport Airlines Europe
5.000 commercial aircraft Average flight 750 km
Average flight duration 1h20 30.000
flights per day 10.000.000 flights per
year 13.000.000 flight hours per year
Load factor (fill rate) 65 1 B pax per year
(100 pax/flight) 700.000 employees Total
revenue 100 B/year
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ATM TodayAir Transport Airports Europe
2.200 airports in 36 countries 766 recognised
by IATA 17.700.000 movements/year 135.000
employees Revenue Aeronautical 11
B/year Non-aeronautical 11 B/year
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ATM TodayAir Transport Air Navigation - Europe
ICAO The contracting States recognize that every
State has complete and exclusive sovereignty over
the airspace above its territory.
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ATM TodayAir Transport Air Navigation - Europe
EUROCONTROL 37 Member States 37 Service
Providers (ANSP) 68 Area Control Centres
(ACC) 600 Sectors at full capacity
Shanwick
OAC
417 Towers 199 Approach units 15.000 Air Traffic
Controllers 40.000 Support staff 55.000
Employees Total revenue 7.5 B/year
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ATM Today the System Summary

• REMEMBER
• Main figures Eurocontrol 37 Countries
• 30.000 flight per day
• Average 750 km or 1h30
• 15.000 Air Traffic Controllers (total 55.000
  staff)
• 600 sectors
• Air Transport European Region 120 billion
  /year
• ATM cost Europe 7.5 billion /year

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ATM TodayThe System Analysis

• Analysis
• Fragmentation
• Heterogeneity
• Complexity

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ATM TodayThe System Fragmentation Actors

• Fragmentation All actors concerned
• Airspace size, military TSA,
• ANSPs civil/military size units (ACCs, APPs).
• ATM systems, interfaces, CNS infrastructure.
• Process procurement, development,
• Cost estimate fragmentation

1 B /year
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ATM TodayThe System - Heterogeneity

• Heterogeneity
• Productivity Flight h / ATCO h 0.13 to
  1.53, ltgt 0.65
• Institutional arrangement
• Gvt department, State enterprise, Gvt owned
  company,
• Limited liability company
• Safety Heterogeneous implementation of
  regulations
• Costs
• Cost controlled flight h 185 to 650/h, ltgt
  453/h
• Cost of ATCO 3 to 135/h, ltgt 69 /h

Bring last in class to average
0.6 B /year
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ATM TodayThe System - Complexity
Non-linear relation between traffic and delays !
Complexity not uniform
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ATM TodayPerformance Review

• Performance
• Capacity and Delays
• Cost-effectiveness
• Flight efficiency
• Safety

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3-year capacity-traffic lag being squeezed 80
capacity growth 1990-2000 1 minute average
delay/flight by 2006
De-coupling delays and traffic
growth Investments too much reactive ?
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ATM Today Performance Capacity and Delays
En-route ATFM delays slightly increasing
1.4 min/flight in high traffic growth, Nearly at
economic optimum delay target 1 min/flight
Airport ATFM delays warrant special attention.
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ATM Today Performance Capacity and Delays

• Cost of delays
• Delay ? Definition ? Cost for whom ?
• Tactical Reactionary Strategic delays
  Passengers ?

1 B /year
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ATM Today Performance Cost-effectiveness
Until now, cost traffic, unit cost and
effectiveness stable. But Available
projections indicate that unit costs will
decrease more or less in line with the
cost-effectiveness target in the coming years.
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ATM Today Performance Flight efficiency

• Flight not direct.
• Cause airspace structure, en-route congestion,
  route charge differentials .
• Marginal cost of schedule time
• 19/min for an ATR42
• 131/min for a B747-400
• average 6.4/NM
• 3.5/km (2004)

Military zone
Margin for improvement
1.5 B /year
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ATM Today Performance Safety

• Data ?
• Some progress
• incident reporting and transparency.
• Legal and cultural impediments ..
• . still exist
• 24 regulatory authorities 19 ANSPs
• . not meet acceptable maturity level

ATM contribution 2..6
15 States more incidents reported High severity
incidents constant
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ATM Today Performance Summary

• REMEMBER
• ATM is performing well
• Average delays at near economic optimum 1.4
  min/flight
• Unit costs stable 0.80 /km
• Delay costs for airlines 70 /minute
• But, still high margins for improvements
• Safety level (implementation of regulations
  reporting)
• Fragmentation 1 B/year
• Delays (ATFM) 1 B / year
• Productivity 0.6 B / year
• Flight Efficiency 1.5 B / year

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ATM Tomorrow ForecastChallenge 1 - Traffic
growth
Growth of controlled air traffic 4 in
2006 Expected to continue at similar
rates. Traffic growth varied greatly across
control centres in 2006 (0 to 20).
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ATM Tomorrow Forecast Challenge 1 - Traffic
growth

• Some countries
• spectacular
• increases of
• 20 in 2006
• Heterogeneity

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ATM Tomorrow Forecast Challenge 1 - Traffic
growth
A strong economies and limited oil price
growth B business as usual C increased
environmental costs, larger aircraft, more
limited trade, traffic liberalization D world of
tensions between regions and very high oil price
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7.0 Mio Flights
8.0 Mio Flights
Flights 150 or more
11.9 Mio Flights
15.8 Mio Flights
DIVISION DED 4 - 4/11/97
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ATM Tomorrow Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety
What people perceive
Accidents Traffic x Accident Rate Public
perceives Absolute Number of Accident, Not the
Accident Rate ! ? Needs to be lowered
drastically !
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ATM Tomorrow Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety

• At constant Safety Level
• Relation between accidents rate and traffic is
  QUADRATIC
• absolute accident constant
• traffic x 2 ? safety level x 4

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ATM Tomorrow Forecast Challenge 2 - Safety

• Relation between accidents rate and traffic is
  quadratic
• If absolute accident constant
• If Traffic x 2
• Then ? safety level x 4

3 flights 3 potential conflicts
3 x 2 flights 3 x 22 12 potential conflicts
3 flights 3 potential conflicts
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ATM Tomorrow Strategy Documents

• European Commission, Sep.2001
• White Paper  European Transport Policy for
  2010 
• European Commissioner for Research, Jan.2001
• Group of Aeronautics Personalities
• A vision for 2020
• Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in
  Europe (ACARE)
• Strategic Research Agenda SRA-1 and SRA-2
• Single European Sky and SESAR

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ATM Tomorrow Strategy Documents

• Challenges for 2020
• Traffic 2000 ? 2020 3 x more traffic
• Safety Accident rate -80 Safety x 10
• Environment Emissions, Noise - 50 -80
• Quality of service
• Time in airport maximum 15 min (short) and 30
  min (long)
• 99 flight within 15 min of schedule, all weather
  conditions
• Security Zero successful hijack
• ONE European airspace SES
• European rules !
• New Air Traffic Control Paradigm ?

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ATM TomorrowSummary

• REMEMBER
• Traffic increase 4 .. 5 / year
• Traffic forecast for 2025 2 .. 3 x
• Safety relation to traffic QUADRATIC
• Safety target 10 x
• Quality target
• Time in airport 15 .. 30 min
• Punctuality 99 flight within 15 min all
  weather conditions
• RD budget 200 M/year (3)

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ATM Preparing for the future

• The future
• Solutions
• Role of the CRDS

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EUROCONTROL Potential solutions

• Possible solutions
• Route optimisation (cf. Flight efficiency)
• Additional sectors (physical limit)

• Support tools for controllers
• New technologies

Traffic
RD
SESAR
RD
RD
CASCADE
ModeS
FASTI
ACAS
LINK2000
Predicted capacity
8.33
DMEAN
1 minute delay
Safety - Security
Airports
Closing the capacity gap
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A European ATM Master Plan To Unlock Air Transport

• Converging Industry, EC EUROCONTROL
• Needs
• Turn off fragmented approach
• Accelerate ATM evolution in response to
  challenges
• Synchronise integrate plans from research to
  operations
• Synchronise airborne and ground deployments

• SESAR
• Support Single European Sky technical/operational
  implementation
• 3 Phases
• Definition of European ATM Master Plan (? early
  2008)
• Development (2008 ? 2013)
• Deployment (2014 ? 2020)

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EUROCONTROL Potential solutions

• Possible solutions
• Route network optimisation
• Additional sectors
• Support tools for controllers
• New technologies
• But
• Maximum benefit in large airspace
• Need to be further optimised
• Need to be tested and validated
• Task of CRDS
• Develop and improve the solutions (RD)
• Test and validate the solutions (simulations)
• Disseminate the knowledge (training)

FAB CEATS
3 Pillars for
CRDS
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CRDS 1. RD Co-ordination

• Focal point ATM RD Central Europe
• CRDS has limited resources for RD !
• Develop own expertise (e.g. civil/military
  contingency, data link, )
• Act as a catalyst and concentrate on
• Issues relevant for CEATS, with potential wider
  application
• Domains not yet covered by others
• Develop partnerships with the EUROCONTROL
  Experimental Centre, RD Establishments,
  Industry, Universities (Graz, ilina, Budapest,
  Trieste, Belgrade, Dresden, ) and Military
  Academies !

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CRDS 2. Validation Simulations

• Validation through simulations
• Improve and Validate operational and
  technical concepts
• Improve
• Translate concept in applicable working methods
• Provide recommendations
• Validate
• Provide information of performance to decision
  makers
• Information on Operability, Safety, Capacity, .
  
  . Environment, Economy
• According to common standards
• E-OCVM for validation methodology
• ESARRs (2 and 4) for Risk assessment and Risk
  mitigation
• ISO Certification process initiated

E-OCVM European Operational Concept Validation
Model ESARR Eurocontrol Safety
Regulatory Requirement
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CRDS 2. Validation Simulations

• Validation through simulations
• Model-Based Simulations (MBS)
• Use a mathematical simulator
• faster, large airspace, longer periods
• - human is simulated
• ? Capacity, Environment Economy
• Real-Time Simulations (RTS)
• Simulate a real environment
• Human participation (controller pilot)
• - Costly and labour intensive
• ? Operability Safety

• 2001 2006 18 RTS and 12 MBS
• 2007 4 RTS and 4 MBS
  Connect with MALEV Flight Simulator

? Capacity typical 4 RTS and 4 MBS per year,
depending on complexity
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CRDS 3. Support to Training

• Support to Training
• The CRDS will add an additional element to the
  regional simulation training capability in
  particular for training and familiarisation with
  advanced system features.
• Support Training of the Trainers in the context
  of CEATS
• In co-operation with the other ANSP training
  centres and the EUROCONTROL IANS (Luxembourg).
• In co-operation with universities in the region
• ? Visitors Day, GENSPACE, Advanced Concepts in
  RTS,
• Co-operation to avoid overlap in existing and
  future work programmes

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CRDSStaff and Resources

• CRDS Team
• 13 staff
• 10 contractors
• Experienced ATCOs
• Simulator Facilities
• Real-Time
• 26 Controllers Working Positions
• 20 Pilot Working Positions
• ASMT
• Model-Based (Mathematical models)
• RAMS Plus
• TAAM (Total Airspace Airport Modeller)
• LUCIAD

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EUROCONTROL CRDS Simulator environment