Demographics R Us

1
Demographics R Us How Demographic, State
Budget and College Pricing Trends Threaten
Continued Education Progress Joseph L.
Marks SREB Director of Education Data
Services 2007 College Board Southern
Regional Forum Atlanta, Georgia February 7, 2007
2
From the Facts A Story

• 1) Population trends
• make progress in education harder.
• 2) Minority students
• gaining, but alarming gaps remain.
• 3) Cost to attend college
• a problem for student groups whose enrollment
  is increasing the fastest.

3

• 1) Population trends
• make progress in education
• harder.

4
Population 25 to 64
White
SREB States, 2000
Hispanic
Four-Year
Two-Year
Source NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census
data.
5
Never Attended College
White
SREB, 2000
Hispanic
Four-Year
Two-Year
Source NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census
data.
6
A Bachelors or Advanced Degree
White
SREB, 2000
Hispanic
Four-Year
Source NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census
data.
7
Hispanic Population
SREB, 2005
Hispanic population 14.6 million
6.2 million
43 new since 1995
Source SREB analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census
data.
8
Projected Increases in Working-Age Adults 25 to
64 Years Old, 2000 to 2020
White
SREB
Source NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census
data.
9
Hispanic Students Among Public High School
Graduates
SREB
210,120 more than in 2004 83 of the total
projected increase in graduates
2004
2018
Source WICHE projections.
10
Never Attended College
White
SREB
Black
2000
2020
Source NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census
data.
11
Bachelors or Advanced Degree
White
SREB
Black
2000
2020
Source NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census
data.
12
A Bachelors or Advanced Degree
White
SREB
Black
1990
2000
Source NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census
data.
13
Projected Change in Per-Capita Income
White
SREB (in 2000 dollars)
Black
Hispanic
Four-Year
2000
Two-Year
2020
Source NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census
data.
14
Past Change in Per-Capita Income
White
SREB (in 2000 dollars)
Black
Hispanic
Four-Year
1990
Two-Year
2000
Source NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census
data.
15

• 2) Minority students
• gaining,
• but alarming gaps remain.

16
Increase in Bachelors Degrees Earned
SREB, 1994 to 2004
Black and Hispanic students accounted for 57 of
increase
Black Hispanic 37,730
All Other 28,620
66,350
Source SREB Fact Book on Higher Education.
17
Black Students as a Percent of Total
SREB, 2002
Hispanic
Four-Year
Two-Year
Source NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census,
WICHE and NCES data.
18
Hispanic Students as a Percent of Total
SREB, 2002
Hispanic
Four-Year
Two-Year
Source NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census,
WICHE and NCES data.
19
Graduation Rates Four-Year College University
Students
White
SREB, 2002
Hispanic
Four-Year
Two-Year
Source NCHEMS analysis of NCES data.
20
Graduation Rates Two-Year College Students
SREB, 2002
Hispanic
Four-Year
Two-Year
Source NCHEMS analysis of NCES data.
21

• 3) Costs to attend college
• are a problem especially for
• student groups whose enrollment is increasing
  the fastest.

22
Percent of Income Requiredto Pay for One
YearPublic University, United States
Annual household income
Percent required for one years tuition, fees,
room and board
Middle and lower-income students face
affordability gap
Source SREB Fact Book on Higher Education.
23
Affordability GapPublic Four-Year Colleges and
UniversitiesSREB States, 2004
GAP Fillers Scholarships State Grants Extra
Earnings Cutting Costs
3,350
4,150
Annual tuition, fees, room and board 8,900
Tax credit 1,500
SEOG 700
Pell Grant 2,300
Pell Grant 4,050
Expected family contribution 1,750
SREB median income family 37,600
U.S. poverty level family 17,000
24
Grants and Loans to Freshmen
SREB Public Colleges, 2003
Grant or Loan
Loan
Source SREB Fact Book on Higher Education.
25
Enrollment and Funding Changes
SREB, Public Colleges, 2001 to 2006
Source SREB-State Data Exchange.
26
Appropriations and Tuition Growth
SREB, Public Colleges, 2001 to 2006
1.5 billion
Two-Year Colleges
1.3 billion
Four-Year Colleges
5.0 billion
1.5 billion
Source SREB-State Data Exchange.
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For further information contact Joe.Marks_at_SREB.or
g 404-875-9211 www.SREB.org