Chapter 10 Demographics

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Chapter 10Demographics School Finance
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• Improving student learning and ensuring that
  all children receive an adequate education in the
  21st century will be complicated by changing
  demographics of the students to be educated, as
  well as of the adults who must pay for education
  through taxes. - Janet S.
  Hansen, 2001.

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Demographics Finance

• Demographics describe changes in population.

4
Demographics Finance, cont.

• Demographics significantly impact the costs of
  providing public education.

5
Changes in Our Understanding of Demographics

• For the most part, we were not concerned with
  changing racial ethnic demographics.

• Until 15 or 20 years ago, demographics only
  involved the number of students enrolling each
  fall and if they were coming from different
  neighborhoods than last year.

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Todays Schools Have More More Diverse Students

• These increasing racial, ethnic, and economic
  groups have a large impact on where and how
  education dollars should be spent
• Equity and adequacy issues face schools with
  changing demographics

7
Demographic Changes Affect Teaching Learning

• Without proper planning and budgeting, students
  issues of language, values, traditions,
  behaviors will likely prevent otherwise effective
  teachers from understanding, developing strong
  relationships with, successfully teaching
  students from backgrounds different than their
  own

8
Demographics Impact Student Achievement

• School leaders must be aware of the trends in
  demographics if schools are to teach all students
  to high levels of learning.

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This Chapter Will

• Analyze state and local demographic shifts in
  student population and examine the associated
  financial impact on public schools
• Make some predictions as to what the future
  demographics will look like in your locality
• Examine some demographic issues involved in
  teacher recruitment, selection, professional
  education to meet the students needs in schools

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Understanding Diverse Students Learning Needs

• When the school districts population changes,
  families from other cultures or economic
  backgrounds move into the neighborhood and enroll
  their children in school

• Middle class teachers beliefs and behaviors
  typically do not prepare them to understand,
  motivate, or instruct students from other
  cultures

11
U.S. Schools Operate on Middle Class Norms
Values

• For example, many believe that wealthy people
  are smarter
• Teachers believing this myth will not have
  sufficiently high expectations for students from
  poverty backgrounds and will be less likely to
  teach these students to high achievement levels

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Students Bring Own Rules

• Students from poverty backgrounds bring their own
  hidden rules into the school that make
  classroom management and a learning focus
  difficult for teachers who do not understand
  these behaviors

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Students Bring Own Rules, cont.

• Students from poverty homes are likely to believe
  that security comes from relationships rather
  than school or work
• They are used to higher noise levels receiving
  key information nonverbally

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Teacher Student Classroom LearningComfort
Levels Differ

• Students
• Relationships matter most
• Noise is good
• Non-verbal tells REAL story
• Other students are entertaining

• Teachers
• Desks in
• straight rows
• Teachers lecturing
• Only one speaker at a time
• Teachers giving information

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Teacher Student Disconnects Achievement

• The results for student achievement are likely to
  be discouragingly self-fulfilling
• Poor student achievement among students in the
  new demographic would greatly increase community
  school distrust and would eventually require
  significant educator time and resources to
  resolve

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Teacher Attitudes Student Achievement

• Unless teachers recognize their personal biases
  ignorance about students from different
  backgrounds --and appropriately adjust their
  views and instructional practices -- students
  families will perceive teacher attitudes as
  disrespectful or worse
• Results for student achievement are likely to be
  discouragingly self-fulfilling

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Student Achievement Community Trust

• Poor student achievement among students in the
  new demographic would greatly increase community
  school distrust and would eventually require
  significant educator time and resources to
  resolve

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Suburban School District A

• 10 Years Ago
• Students
• 98 White, affluent
• 5 Free or Reduced Price Lunches
• Teachers
• Mirrored students
• Local Economy
• Began outsourcing

• Today
• Students
• 47 White 27 Hispanic
• 23 Black
• 93 Free/Reduced Lunches
• 30 Second Language Learners
• Teachers
• Still mostly White, middle class
• Local Economy Loss of well-paying jobs loss of
  fiscal resources

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What is Financial Impact of Educating These
Students?

• 10 Years Ago
• Students
• 98 White, affluent
• 5 Free or Reduced Price Lunches
• Teachers
• Mirrored students
• Local Economy
• Began outsourcing

• Today
• Students
• 47 White 27 Hispanic
• 23 Black
• 93 Free/Reduced Lunches
• 30 Second Language Learners
• Teachers
• Still mostly White, middle class
• Local Economy Loss of well-paying jobs loss of
  fiscal resources

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Planning for Schooling 10 Years Later Requires

• Revised curriculum
• Professional development for staff
• Equipment facility needs
• Recruited a more diverse staff
• Programs practices to decrease the achievement
  gap if the schools are to remain responsive to
  their communitys needs

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Demographics Impact School Finance

• School leaders must be aware of local demographic
  trends if schools are to teach all students to
  high levels in a public accountability
  environment
• Keeping pace with changing demographics requires
  funding at higher levels than before

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Poverty School Leadership

• Educational leaders in high poverty areas must
  plan to meet these challenges with highly
  qualified teachers and meaningful programs that
  address the real at-risk behaviors facing
  students, while building community support for
  the direction being taken

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Percentage Change in Public K-12 Enrollment
by State,Fall, 1996 Fall, 2001
24
States Localities Must Plan for Increases,
Decreases, Cultural/Ethnic Differences in
Student Populations Their Costs
25
Enrollment Trends, 1980-2010, in Thousands
Public Schools 1980 2000 2010

K 12 40,877 47,223 47,561
K 8 27,647 33,709 33,244
9 12 13,231 13,514 14,317

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Expected Changes in Student Populations

• The racial/ethnic backgrounds of the school-aged
  population have changed
• While white, non-Hispanic persons will still be
  the majority, this demographic is projected to
  decrease as a part of the overall population by
  30age points

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Expected Changes in Student Populations

• The Black non-Hispanic population is predicted to
  maintain consistently around 14 of the
  population
• The Hispanic group has increased and is projected
  to almost double between 2000 and 2040 to 28 of
  the population
• The Asian/Pacific Islander/Other group continues
  to rise by 1age point per
• decade

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Special Needs Students inNew Demographics

• Medically fragile students
• Second language learners
• Students from other countries bring still more
  learning (and occasionally physical) needs into
  the classroom

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Demographics Can Help Us Plan for Potential Costs

• The Statistical Abstract of the United States,
  2001, indicating 2000 data, can help us predict
  what the kindergarten class of 2005 might be
  like
• For example, it is known that poverty increases
  risk of low birth weight, low birth weight is a
  good predictor of a child having learning
  disabilities in schoolwith increased enrollment
  of poverty students, we can expect increased
  special education services and related costs

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Racial/Ethnic Background of School-Age Population
1970 2000 2040
White (non Hispanic) 79 65 49
Black (non Hispanic) 14 15 14
Asian/Pacific Isl. 1 5 9
Hispanic 6 15 28
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15 Risk Factors Young Childrens Success in
School

• Poverty
• Infant child mortality
• Low birth weight
• Single parents
• Teen mothers
• Mothers using alcohol, tobacco, or drugs
• Transience
• Child abuse neglect
• Lack of quality day care

• Low wage jobs
• Unemployed parents
• Lack of access to health and medical care
• Low parent education
• Poor nutrition
• Lack of contact with English as the primary
  language

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Poverty is a Risk Factor

• Poverty impacts enlarges all other risk factors
  
• Fully 22 of Americas children live in poverty
• America has the highest percentage of children in
  poverty of any of the 28 advanced industrial
  democratic countries
• The U.S. also has the largest gap between rich
  and poor children
• Poorest children experience difficulty in general
  and specifically in school

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Poverty Statistics

• 1/3 of Black Hispanic children live in poverty
• Only 10 of White children are raised in poverty
• 14 million school-aged children in poverty in
  2000
• 9 million were White children
• 4 million were Black children
• 4 million were Hispanic children (included above)
  

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Predicting School Population from Local Poverty
Rates

• The poorest families (those with income less than
  10,000 per year) have yearly birth rates of 73
  per 1,000 females
• Families with incomes greater than 75,000 per
  year have yearly birth rates of 50 per 1,000
  females
• If poverty rates are increasing in a school
  district or a state, it may be safe to predict
  greater enrollment growth than where income is
  higher

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Fiscal Planning Needed with Increased Local
Poverty

• Localities with increasing rates of children
  qualifying for free and reduced lunch programs
  need to plan for early intervention programs
  dealing with resultant school issues from a
  prevention perspective instead of a reactionary
  perspective

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Fiscal Planning Needed with Increased Local
Poverty, cont.

• If poverty rates are increasing in a school
  district or a state, it may be safe to predict
  greater enrollment growth than where income is
  higher
• It is a wise fiscal investment to adequately meet
  poor childrens educational needs as education
  appears to be the only intervention that breaks
  the poverty cycle

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School Finance Planning to Teach Children of
Poverty

• Preschool programs
• Expanded Head Start programs
• Parent education programs
• Quality day care programs
• Professional development programs for educators
  to better meet students learning needs

• Early intervention programs address school issues
  from a prevention perspective, include

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Population Transience Increases Schooling Costs

• America has the highest known migration level of
  any first world country
• 43 million Americans move each year
• 14 stay within the same county, 4 within the
  same state, but to a different county, and 4 to
  a different state

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Population Transience Increases Schooling Costs,
cont.

• Low-income children move more frequently than
  their higher income counterparts
• They lose continuity of instruction learning
  along with having to adjust to a new home,
  friends, teachers

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Population Transience Increases Schooling Costs,
cont.

• Losing continuity of instruction, learning,
  relationships often reduces students
  achievement
• Frequent moves contribute to the Achievement Gap

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Transience Varies State to State

• Approximately 80 of those who live in
  Pennsylvania were born there
• Florida, on the other hand, has a relatively high
  transience rate only 30 of the residents were
  born in the state

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Transience Varies State to State

• Teachers in Pennsylvania and Florida may start
  and end the year with 25 students
• The Florida teacher, however, unlike the
  Pennsylvania teacher, may have 20 different
  students from the 25 who started the year

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Transience is a Risk Factor

• Educational leaders need to plan programs that
  ease the educational disadvantages of transience
  for students provide professional development
  for those who deal with these students

44
Transience Increases Risk for School Problems

• Increases family stress and conflict
• Increases feelings of alienation, loss
• Linked to psychiatric disorders behavior
  problems for preschool children
• Increase probability of needing special education
  in schools

• Areas with transience issues, include
• Military bases locales
• High poverty areas
• Agricultural areas with migrant workers
• Should be aware of the related emotional
  problems implement programs for these children
  families.

45
Illegal Immigrants School Finance

• It is estimated that the U.S. has approximately 5
  million illegal immigrants
• Almost sixty five percent of these individuals
  live in one of three states California
  (2,000,000), Texas (700,000), and New York
  (540,000)
• Estimate that one in five illegal immigrants is
  school-aged, means more than 1 million such
  children attending U.S. schools

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Illegal Immigrants School Finance, cont.

• In the early to mid-1970s Texas was
• spending millions of state dollars each
• year educating children of illegal immigrants
  
• The legislators thought that since these students
  were in the country illegally, Texas should not
  have to spend its tax dollars educating them
• In May 1975, the Texas legislature revised its
  laws to withhold state education funds to those
  school districts for children who were not
  legally admitted into the United States

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Illegal Immigrants School Finance, cont.

• The United States Supreme Court
• in Plyler v. Doe, 1982, determined
• that undocumented children of alien parents
  could not be denied a public education
• The court reasoned that the Fourteenth Amendment
  provides that No State shalldeprive any person
  of life, liberty, or property, without due
  process of law nor deny to any person within its
  jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws

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Illegal Immigrants School Finance, cont.

• The financial impact on Texas was enormous
• There may have been 50,000 children of illegal
  immigrants in the Texas public schools
• The state share per pupil in 1975 may have been
  2,000 with the total yearly spending over
  100,000,000

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Second Language Learners School Finance
of Hispanic School-Aged Children

• The fastest growing racial/ethnic group in the US
  is Hispanic
• The lack of contact with English as the primary
  language is a risk factor in school

1972 2000 2010 2030 2040
6 15 20 25 28
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Second Language Learners School Finance, cont.

• In 2005, if 15 of new students enrolling in U.S.
  public schools is Hispanic, 4,791,200 children
  fall into this category
• If 10 of these children are ESOL (needing
  English language instruction) and we use the
  Florida model of pupil weighting at 1.298, the
  yearly additional cost to educate these children
  is 10,742,598,662

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According to the U.S. Census Bureau

• For infants born to black mothers, the of low
  birth weight babies is 13 almost double that
  of the average

• We may predict, therefore, that black children
  may be at greater risk of being identified for
  special education services than other children

52
According to the U.S. Census Bureau , cont.

• If your state or locality is experiencing higher
  enrollment of black students, one might expect a
  larger enrollment in special education students

53
Infant Child Mortality Rates School Finance

• The United States has a rather surprisingly high
  rate of infant mortality
• In the United States in 1998, there were 681
  deaths per 100,000 babies under the age of one

• The infant mortality rate for white babies in the
  first year of life is 571 per 100,000 babies
  while the rate for black babies is 1,363 per
  100,000

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Infant Child Mortality Rates School Finance,
cont.

• Infant mortality can lead to childrens
  parents feelings of alienation
• This condition has been linked to psychiatric
  disorders behavior problems for preschool
  children

• These children have a high probability of needing
  special education programs later as they enter
  public schools especially in LD and DD
  (developmental delay) programs

55
Rate of Single Parenthood School Finance

• In the United States, about 1/3 of all births
  were to unmarried parents
• This is a risk factor is associated with poverty
• Of births to unwed mothers, 26 were white, 68
  were black, 42 were Hispanic, 58 Native
  American, and 5 Asian
• For every ethnic/racial group a child raised by a
  single mother is 2 to 3 times as likely to be
  raised in poverty than a child raised in a
  two-parent home

56
Too Much TV-Watching School Finance

• Research findings indicate that for each
  additional hour of watching TV per day,
  attention problems increase by approximately 10

• Toddlers who watched 8 hours of TV per day would
  have an 80 increased risk of attention problems
  than a child who watched no TV

57
Too Much TV-Watching School Finance, cont.

• ADHD is a qualifying condition for special
  education services
• The implications for increased learning problems
  and related practices to address them
  increases the cost of educating these students

58
Too Much TV-Watching School Finance, cont.

• School districts with increasing percentages of
  children eligible to receive free or reduced
  lunch need to understand other ramifications of
  this changing demographic

• Students in the poorest 20 of families watched
  TV 18 hours per week rather than the 11 hours per
  week in the top income group
• Lack of quality day care may be a significant
  contributor to time in front of TV

59
Grandparents Raising their Grandchildren

• 4 million school-aged children live with their
  grandparent/s
• Grandparent/s have sole custody of approximately
  1 million school-aged children

• Factors include
• Parents in jail or drug rehabilitation centers
• Parents who for one reason or another are simply
  incapable of caring for their own children

60
Grandparents Raising Grandchildren School
Finance

• Little is known about the levels of support for
  school funding issues or the voting records for
  these grandparents
• In school districts where this phenomenon occurs,
  school leaders need to provide support mechanisms
  for these individuals and provide the
  professional development for staff members who
  interact with them

61
Child Abuse Neglect School Finance

• In 2002, an estimated 2.6 million referrals were
  made to local or state Child Protective Services
  (CPS) for investigation
• Involved nearly 4.5 million children
• Approximately 896,000 children found to be
  victims of child abuse or neglect

62
Increased Cost of Educating Emotionally Disturbed
Students

• Using the Florida model, the cost for educating a
  child diagnosed as socially maladjusted costs 2.3
  times the base cost per student
• If only 1/10 of the 418,600 children referred are
  eventually diagnosed with emotional problems
  the 41,860 students at 2.3 times the average
  pupil expenditure in 2002 of 7,524
• Yearly cost to society through school costs alone
  would be 724,395,672

63
Teacher Shortage School Finance

• The U.S. Department of Education estimates that
  schools will have to replace more than 2 million
  teachers over the next ten years, an average of
  200,000 new teachers, annually
• Teacher shortages are most pervasive in math,
  science, special education, bilingual and ESL
  classes

64
Cumulative of Teachers Leaving Profession Each
Year
65
Many Reasons for Teacher Shortages

• Approximately half of all beginning teachers
  leave the profession within their first five
  years
• Almost 16 percent of beginning teachers leave
  before the end of their first school year

• Leavers cite
• Job dissatisfaction
• Desire for career outside education
• Working conditions
• Low salary considering amount of own education
  job responsibilities

66
High Teacher TurnoverImpacts School Finance

• Replacing 200,000 experienced teachers with
  100,000 experienced 100,000 inexperienced
  (lower salaried) teachers could save 1 billion
  each year that could be redirected to improving
  teacher quality

• Teachers with many years of experience and
  advanced degrees will be replaced with new,
  inexperienced teachers

67
High Teacher TurnoverCosts Taxpayers

• Business models cost out employee turnover costs
  to include 25 of the employees salary and
  benefits
• Organizational costs of termination, recruitment,
  hiring substitutes, and new training costs,
  estimates are that turnover costs U.S. public
  education approximately 2.1 billion each year

68
Finance Redirection to Increase Teacher Quality

• More than 2 billion each year could be
  redirected to teacher salary and benefits
  enhancements to attract retain high quality
  teachers

• If the 1 billion annual savings were combined
  with a 50 reduction of the 2.1 billion
  organizational costs

69
High Teacher TurnoverImpacts School Finance

• In education, induction, mentoring, and training
  costs are concentrated in the early years of
  employment
• Estimates say that a teacher who quits after one
  year cost the school district 13,500 in lost
  recruitment and training
• The cost jumps to 50,000 for a teacher who quits
  after three years

70
Alternatively Certified Teachers Have High
Attrition

• 80,000 teachers entered the teaching profession
  in the last 10 years through non-traditional,
  teacher prep programs
• One study found that 60 of those
• who enter teaching through short-cut
• programs leave teaching in the first 3
• years as opposed to the 30 who leave in
• the same time frame from traditional
• programs and the 10 to 15 who leave from
• five-year teacher preparation programs

71
Induction Programs for Teachers Reduce Later Costs

• Since faculty stability has been shown to enhance
  school improvement attrition rates for new
  teachers participating
• in induction programs is 15
• (compared to 26 for those
• who had no induction support), it
• makes financial common sense for the
  educational leader to research quality induction
  programs to minimize personnel costs

72
Low Salary Hurts Teaching as Career

• The National Center for Education Statistics
  (NCES) reported
• 28 of former public school teachers
• 33 of private school teachers
• left the classroom and went to work for
  private businesses because of better salary or
  commission.

73
Quality Teachers Can IncreaseStudent Achievement

• ETS study examined math and science scores on the
  National Assessment of Educational Progress
  (NAEP), also known as the Nations Report Card

• When teachers had strong content knowledge, had
  learned to work with students from other
  cultures, and learned to work with special needs
  students, their students tested more than a full
  grade level above their peers

74
Teacher Shortage HurtsUrban, Low Income Schools

• Much research indicates that low income and urban
  schools experience higher degrees of teacher
  turnover and greater teacher shortages than other
  types of schools

• As a result, urban and low-income students are
  more likely to have under-prepared and
  non-certified teachers than any other group of
  students

75
Teacher Quality Increases Student Achievement

• Over time, students placed with high quality
  teachers make significantly higher achievement
  gains
• Grade 3 students scoring at approximately the
  same level, after 3 consecutive years with highly
  effective teachers, score 35 ile points higher
  in reading scores and 49ile points higher in
  math scores than do peers with less effective
  teachers
• Students with less effective teachers may even
  lose ground, in terms of achievement scores

76
Teacher Quality Could Reducethe Achievement
Gap, but

• Low income and minority students are nearly twice
  as likely to assigned to low quality teachers
  than their more affluent, white counterparts
• Other research indicates that poor black students
  are less likely to have a well-qualified teacher
  than poor white students, especially at the
  secondary level

77
Administrator Demographics Quality Principal
Shortage

• There is a growing shortage of qualified people
  willing to take on the principals job
• The graying of school administrators linked
  with the increased job complexity, rising
  standards, greater accountability demands have
  led to increased numbers of school leadership
  vacancies nationwide
• Approximately 40 of the countrys
• current principals will retire by 2008

78
Administrator Demographics Principal Shortage

• In a 2001 Public Agenda survey, superintendents
  in large, urban districts are somewhat more
  likely to experience an insufficient supply of
  principal applicants 61 say they are
  experiencing at least a somewhat serious shortage
  of principals.

79
Administrator Demographics Principal Shortage,
cont.

• The National Association of Elementary School
  Principals (NAESP) estimates that approximately
  40 of the countrys 93,200 current principals
  will retire by 2008
• The recruitment and retention of
• qualified principals has become
• one of the greatest challenges facing
• school systems across the U.S

80
Principal Recruitment Retention Are Costly

• Approximately 22 of all current principals could
  be eligible to retire
• Blacks and Hispanics appear to be under-
  represented in the principal population

• Attracting and retaining quality principals can
  be an expensive proposition for school districts
  with competition for high quality,
  underrepresented racial/ethnic groups

81
Average Principals Salaries Racial/Ethnic Groups
Racial/Ethnic Group Total Years Experience Average Annual Salary

White 23 66,198
Black 23.1 68,044
Hispanic 21.8 68,835
Asian/Pacific 22.7 56,986
Alaska Native/American Indian 20.9 71,396
82
Issues Contributing toPrincipal Shortage

• The varied and enormous demands on school
  leaders time and energies force many to make
  serious compromises in their personal and family
  lives

• Issues of community respect, prestige, and salary
  also make the careers less attractive to
  promising quality candidates.
• In some cases, principals earn less per diem than
  senior teachers

83
Principal Quality is Also a Major Concern

• Many superintendents acknowledge difficulties in
  finding effective, well-qualified principal
  applicants
• Just over half (52) say they are happy with
  the job their current principals are doing,
  overall

• Only 41 of large urban district superintendents
  say they are happy with their current
  principals performance

84
Principal Quality Lacking

• Barely one in three superintendents say they
  are happy with their districts principals when
  it comes to

• Recruiting talented teachers (36)
• Knowing how to make tough decisions (35)
• Delegating responsibility and authority (34)
• Involving teachers in decisions (33)
• Using money effectively (32)

85
Principal Quality Student Achievement

• Owings and Kaplans (2004) study finds that
  elementary principals rated highly by supervisors
  using professional standards have significantly
  higher achieving students than principals rated
  lower

• Middle and high school principals ratings were
  in the expected direction although not
  statistically significant

86
Principal Quality School Finance

• Knowing how to use precious (and limited)
  school resources effectively to maximize student
  learning and develop and maintain a quality
  teaching staff, quality principals makes a
  measurable difference in the value taxpayers get
  for supporting schools.

87
Ideas to Improve Principal Quality, Reduce
Shortage

• Improving school administrators pay and prestige
  
• Improving the quality of principals professional
  development
• Making it much easier for principals to remove
  ineffective teachers
• Creating initiatives that encourage teachers to
  consider school leadership careers

88
Principal Turnover Impacts School Finance

• The average salary for school administrators in
  the 1999-2000 school year (latest data available)
  was 66,504
• Approximately 22 of all principals could be
  eligible to retire. Less experienced/expensive
  principals would probably replace them
• If 10 of the nations 93,200 principals retire
  each year at a savings of 15,000 per year per
  principal, the national savings would be almost
  140 million
• This personnel cost savings, as with teachers,
  could be redirected to administrator salary and
  benefits enhancements to attract and retain high
  quality principals in the schools

89
School Finance Issues Principals Daily Needs

• Budgets have not kept pace with new spending
  demands
• Most superintendents (66) and principals (53)
  say insufficient funding is a more pressing
  problem for them than lack of parental
  involvement, ineffective administrators, or poor
  teacher quality

• Not only have responsibilities increased but also
  more mandates have been assigned to school
  leaders without the corresponding funds to enact
  them