Global Trends of GTS Development

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Global Trends of GTS Development

• G.H.B. Verberg
• President International Gas Union
• GTS-2005, Moscow, 12 April 2005

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INTERNATIONAL GAS UNIONCovers gt95 of World Gas
Sales Spokesman of the Gas Industry
www.IGU.org
Membership from 67 countries and 18 Associated
Members
Non Members
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Global Trends of GTS Development (1)

• Tracking the strong growth in gas demand by
  timely investments
• Complying to modern safety and environmental
  standards
• Conditioning for (almost) real time information
  flows for regulators and third parties
• Implementing management systems, including PIMS,
  which enables management also to handle
  benchmarking.

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Demand not in regions of supplies

• Fuel demand increases steadily general economic
  growth (developed markets), fast growing
  emerging economies (Asia)
• New gas fields lie in remote areas and require
  long distance transport
• New gas supply projects are technically and
  geopolitically more complex and more expensive

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Global Energy Demand Forecast IEA WEO 2004
159
139
118
187
100
100
54
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Emerging Markets Put Their Mark On Hydrocarbons
Demand
of Global Hydrocarbons Demand for each region
Market Share oil/gas/coal per Region
2002
2020
2020
2002
2002
2020
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Energy consumption in perspective
1/3 of world population
IEA data year 2002
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Incremental Global Gas Demand from 2002 to 2010,
2020
largest liquefaction train 7.8 mtpa (Qatar)
148
60
2002 to 2010
2002 to 2020
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Costs in the LNG chain
Average price per ship ( million)
Upstream costs (/boe)
Liquifaction costst transformed ( per ton of
capacity)
From a presentation by BP (february 2003)
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LNG trade history and perspectives
15
Bcm
LNG trade as of total gas market
11
8
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History (CEDIGAZ)
Forecast (IEA weo 2004)
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International LNG Trade Connecting Markets
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Transport by pipeline some figures

• Pipelines
• Long distances to cover (Iran-India 2775 km,
  investment gt 4b
• Alaska-Chicago gt5000 km
• Russian gas fields-W.EU up to 4000km)

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PIPELINES RUSSIA -gt EUROPE
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Costs of Transport for Different Routes
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Moving EnergyGas or Electricity lines ?

• Transmission losses
• Long distance transport
• Per 100 km gas 0,3, electricity 1
• Distribution to end users
• Gas none electricity 7 (stepwise
  transformation to lower voltage)

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Global Trends of GTS Development (2)

• Tracking the strong growth in gas demand by
  timely investments
• Complying to modern safety and environmental
  standards
• Conditioning for (almost) real time information
  flows for regulators and third parties
• Implementing management systems, including PIMS,
  which enables management also to handle
  benchmarking.

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CO2 emission from power plants
spread due to type of coal (lignite/hard coal)
and technology (old/new-high-efficiency)
CCGT as Back UP
Sources life-cycle assessment of electricity
generation systems and applications for climate
change policy analysis, Meier, 2002, published on
website Nuclear Energy Institute own data IEA
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CO2 emission from conventional and modern coal
power plants vs Gas-CCGT
IEA world energy outlook 2004
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CO2eq Emissions From GTS
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LOW CO2eq emissions from GTS are drivers in the
competition
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Global Trends of GTS Development (3)

• Tracking the strong growth in gas demand by
  timely investments
• Complying to modern safety and environmental
  standards
• Conditioning for (almost) real time information
  flows for regulators and third parties
• Implementing management systems, including PIMS,
  which enables management also to handle
  benchmarking.

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Information flows not only for own management!

• General public and authorities want reliable and
  up to date information at least with respect to
  safety, environmental and reliability
• Third parties and regulators claim relevant
  information of GTS for the use of GTS for gas
  transport
• Management needs good information systems to
  manage in the present complicated business
  environment !

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Global Trends of GTS Development (4)

• Tracking the strong growth in gas demand by
  timely investments
• Complying to modern safety and environmental
  standards
• Conditioning for (almost) real time information
  flows for regulators and third parties
• Implementing management systems, including PIMS,
  which enables management also to handle
  benchmarking.

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PIMS, Benchmarking, Regulation

• Pipeline Integrity Management System (PIMS) is a
  crucial management tool for GTS
• Regulators/Authorities require more and more
  public accountability and responsibility for the
  performance and management of GTS
• Regulators/Authorities introduce more and more
  benchmarking to stimulate improvements

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Benchmarking

• Regulators/Authorities are using benchmarking
  more and more
• The sale of regional gridsystems by the National
  Grid Transco (UK) will facilitate benchmarking
  between different grid cies in the UK
• In several countries grid cies are being
  benchmarked by the regulator to stimulate cost
  reduction and to improve performance
  (reliability, safety, environment)

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Thank you, for your attention

• See you in Amsterdam!
• 23rd World Gas Conference and Exhibition
• June 5 9 2006

see you in Busan, South Korea, 23-25 May 2005
at the ICT2005, 7th Congress on ICT in the
Energy Business !!
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IGU mission

• actively and directly promote the technical and
  economic progress of the global gas industry
• work towards improving the competitiveness of gas
  in the world energy markets, thereby emphasising
  sound environmental performance, safety and
  reliability
• promote transfer of technology and know-how,
  serving as a global information clearing house
• maximise value to its members and to gas customers

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IGUs objectives

• Gas as the fuel of choice preceding a sustainable
  energy system
• (Bridging fuel)
• Promotion of the gas industry as a responsible
  corporate citizen
• Promotion of technology, industry and customer
  focus