Hazards Overview (Smith, 2001, Ch 1)

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Hazards Overview(Smith, 2001, Ch 1)
Geography 152bHazards

• discussion preventing losses
• discussion world more dangerous?
• context
• hazard research
• definitions
• typologies of hazards
• vulnerability and resilience

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Discussion Preventing Losses from Hazard Disaster

• video (Gustav 2008 prep in New Orleans)
• video (Gustav 2008 evacuation announcement)
• video (Ike 2008 refusal to evacuate)
• video (Ike 2008 Cuba and Haiti)
• video (Katrina, 2005, looting)

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Discussion Preventing Losses from Hazard Disaster

• What can be done to prevent the devastating
  losses from such natural disasters?
• Video (2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami waves hit beach)
• Video (2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami inside
  restaurant)
• Animation (how a tsunami forms)

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Destruction by Tsunami
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Tsunami Early Warning System

• Is this enough?

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Losses are Social

• Losses are socially felt
• Losses are socially caused
• E.G., Vulnerability is extremely social

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ContextDiscussion

• Is the world more dangerous now than it was 20
  years ago?
• Dangerous for whom?
• (Feel free to discuss with your neighbours in the
  class.)

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Context

• healthier than ever
• highest life expectancy ever
• awareness of hazards and risk high
• e.g., 46,962 articles on hazards in major
  Canadian dailies 1985 to present.
• (reference free trade 76,531)
• population at risk increasing

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Life Expectancy
http//www.undp.org/hdr2003/indicator/indic_1_2_1.
html
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Causes of Death Canada
Source Thomas and Hrudey (1997) Risk of Death in
Canada
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Causes of Death
Source Thomas and Hrudey (1997) Risk of Death in
Canada
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World Population Growth
world population clock world mortality clock
(correct?)
Source http//www.prb.org/
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World Population Growth
Source http//www.indexmundi.com/world/
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World Population Growth
Source http//www.indexmundi.com/world/
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Improvements are Happening, but Development is
Uneven
Source http//hdr.undp.org/docs/statistics/data/
flash/2003/hdi_trends.html
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Hazards Research

• acts of God, divorced from society
• mid 20th C (relatively recent) natural hazards
• engineering approach hazard prediction, hazard
  mitigation (e.g., control structures)
• human ecological approach (see geography and
  sociology approaches) hazard part of both
  natural and social systems
• Gilbert White (1936, 1945) flood control

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Hazards Research

• lack of theoretical convergence on
  hazards/disasters in the social sciences
• three social scientific approaches to hazard
  research
• sociology disaster preparedness emergencies -
  coping with community crisis, effect on social
  systems e.g., cohesion vs conflict
• geography hazard focus hazard perception,
  land use planning
• critical perspective vulnerability of LDCs vs
  MDCs

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Definitions

• Hazard (Smith, 1991)
• a threat of danger
• extreme geophysical, biological processes and
  major technological accidents
• concentrated releases of energy or materials
• unexpected threat to human life
• can cause significant damage to goods and
  environment

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Definitions

• Natural Hazard
• caused by forces in the physical environment
• i.e., forces extraneous to humans
• Technological Hazard
• caused by forces in human environment
• i.e., forces are internal to human systems
• Problems with this distinction?
• Provide examples.

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Nature and Human Use Systems
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Hazard Magnitude and Duration

• threshold normal band of tolerance for impacts
• magnitude - peak deviation from threshold
• duration time threshold exceeded

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Hazard Magnitude and Duration

• threshold normal band of tolerance for impacts
• magnitude - peak deviation from threshold
• duration time threshold exceeded

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Hazard Magnitude and Duration Implications

• changes to any of threshold, magnitude or
  duration effects impacts

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Hazard Voluntariness

• typically involuntary exposure to hazards evokes
  highest concern

?
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Definitions

• Risk
• a measure of threat to humans (typically) posed
  by a hazard
• product of magnitude of loss and probability of
  occurrence

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Definitions

• Disaster (Smith, 1991 Quarantelli, 1998)
• event concentrated in time and space
• community experiences severe danger/disruption
• widespread human, material, environmental losses
• exceeds ability of community to cope social
  stress
• external assistance required

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Questions

• Identify hazards that are low risk.
• Identify hazards that that are high risk.
• Identify hazards that are not disasters.

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Damage from Hazards

• cannot mitigate all hazards, so must prioritize
• typically, the rank-order is
• humans (death, injury disease, stress)
• goods (property, economic loss)
• environment (loss flora, fauna, soils)

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Damage from Hazards and Risk
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Perception of Risk and Impact

• frequency, hence probability, of disasters is
  typically low
• lt 0.01 of US population dies from severe natural
  disasters
• lt 0.5 of budgets spend on disaster relief

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Impact by Disaster Type

• number of event, and people affected, and people
  killed varies greatly by disaster type

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Typology of of Hazards/Disasters

• Numerous schemes for categorizing
  hazards/disasters
• Choice of typology depends somewhat on the goals
  at hand (e.g., research, emergency preparedness,
  policy development)

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Typology of of Hazards/Disasters
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Typology of Hazards/Disasters

• Typical according to geophysical processes
  (technological tacked on end)
• e.g., endogenous earth origin (volcanoes,
  earthquakes) vs exogenous earth origin (floods,
  avalanches)
• non-geophysical characteristics more useful
  (after Burton et al.)
• areal extent of damage
• intensity of impact
• duration of impact
• rate of onset
• predictability

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Exercise

• Outline two hazards/disasters according to the
  following 5 non-geophysical characteristics (a
  scenario)
• areal extent of damage
• intensity of impact
• duration of impact
• rate of onset
• predictability

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Typology of Hazards/DisastersEvent Sequences and
Intervention
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Typology of Hazards/DisastersGains and Losses
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Hazard/Disaster Vulnerability and Resiliency

• Vulnerability
• a measure of the inability of individuals or
  groups to cope with a hazard/disaster
• Resiliency
• a measure of the ability to recover from
  stressful (hazard) experience
• capacity to absorb and return to normal

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Hazard/Disaster Vulnerability

• Who are most vulnerable to hazards and why?
• Who are most resilient to hazards and why?