GCC: Barriers to Migration

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GCC Barriers to Migration
Critical Point Reached and Species No Longer
suitable Or disturbance and now species is no
longer suitable

• Species dies (disappears) or it moves/migrates
• Migration/ Dispersal determined by fecundity
  dispersal mechanisms
• Barriers Examine changes horizontally
  vertically.
• Original Yellowstone story

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GCC Barriers to Migration
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GCC Barriers to Migration

• Example with American Beech showing its current
  range and its predicted range given two different
  model predictions.

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GCC Key Summary Elements

• Certainty - Uncertainty in predictions
• Response of Forest species/disturbance regimes
• Migration, barriers, other factors
• Ephemeral association of species
• Change is the norm, biological systems are
  largely designed to handle change
• Human systems may not be designed to handle
  changes.
• Bottom line warming rate is predicted to be 40x
  that previously experienced
• 2oC warmest in last 100,000 years, 4oC
  warmest in last 40,000,000!

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Water as an issue Plants, Animals, People
Monday, February 10, 2003 Snow is drier,
research shows Measurements reveal 'disturbing'
decline in snowpack's moisture
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Water Precipitation, Storage, Runoff and
Evapotranspiration
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Temperature to Present
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Model Evaluation latest
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Modeled Temperature Future
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Implications on Water Lettenmaier Model
Reservoir Operating Policies
Reservoir Storage Regulated Streamflow Flood
Control Energy Production Irrigation
Consumption Streamflow Augmentation
Physical System of Dams and Reservoirs
Consequences Changes in distribution of flows -
greater percentage of lower than current average
Streamflow Time Series
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GCC Mitigation

• Conservation
• Alternative fuels
• Carbon management and accounting
• Carbon management associated with forestry and
  agriculture

Three rules Uncertainty Tradeoffs
Political
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GCC Mitigation Plant Soil

• Focus on modifications to losses and gains from
  plants and the soil

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GCC Mitigation Soil

• Where is the carbon in the soil?
• What are the losses (erosion, respiration,
  leaching), what are the gains (biomass returned)?
• Negatives

• Deforestation
• Biomass burning
• Plowing
• Fertilizer/manure
• Drainage

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GCC Mitigation Soil

• Human activities leading to C sequestration in
  soil
• Soil restoration
• Conservation tillage
• Residue/biomass mulching
• Increased nutrient management
• Soil conservation
• Irrigation water conservation
• Agricultural intensification
• Agroforestry

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GCC Mitigation Forest

• Reforestation
• Afforestation
• Agroforestry
• Forest Management
• Offset Strategies Carbon tax concept.
• Land use planning
• Tradeoffs (other land uses, grasslands,
  croplands)
• Destination of forest products
• Substitutes

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GCC Mitigation Forest Management

• Site Preparation
• Planting material
• Intermediate operations
• Harvest
• Roads
• Short rotation culture
• Conservation, preservation, utilization
• Secondary forest products
• Other values

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GCC Mitigation Forest Management
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GCC Mitigation Forest