Takanobu KOSUGI, Toshimasa TOMODA, Keigo AKIMOTO

1
DNE21Results for Phases 1 2
DNE21Results for Phases 1 2
Expert Meeting on the Assessment of Contributions
to Climate Change UK Met Office, UK September 25
- 27, 2002
Expert Meeting on the Assessment of Contributions
to Climate Change

• Takanobu KOSUGI, Toshimasa TOMODA, Keigo AKIMOTO
• Research Institute of Innovative Technology for
  the Earth (RITE)

2
Interrelations in DNE21Model
3
Outline of the Climate Change Model

• Simple climate change model was constructed based
  on MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse
  gas Induced Climate Change).

• Carbon circulation (both oceanic and
  terrestrial), atmospheric concentrations of other
  GHGs, their radiative forcings, temperature rises
  of 4 representative points (north and south
  hemispheres, ocean and land), sea level changes
  of north and south hemispheres (energy balance of
  upwelling stream among one dimensional 40 layers)
  etc. are calculated.
• Cooling effect of SOx aerosol is taken into
  account.

4
Calculating Steps in Climate Change Model
5
Phase 1 Study

• Assumptions / Conditions
• Historical emissions data CDIAC database
• Future emissions scenario A2 of the IPCC SRES
• Timeframe 1765 to 2100

• Model parameters Reference case as specified in
  TERMS OF REFERENCE

Cumulative CO2 emissions
6
Results for Phase 1
CO2 concentration
CH4 and N2O concentrations
Radiative forcing (relative to 1990)
Global-average surface air temperature change
7
Phase 2 Study

• Assumptions / Conditions
• Historical emissions data CDIAC database
• Future emissions scenarios A2, B1 and A1FI, of
  the IPCC SRES (For CO2 emissions only. Non-CO2
  GHGs emissions are assumed to be zero.)
• Emissions start year 1991
• Emissions end years 2010, 2050 and 2100
• Countries/regions OECD90, REF, ASIA and ALM used
  in the IPCC SRES.
• Model parameters Reference case only (same as
  Phase 1)

8
Methodology of Attribution Calculation
Phase 2

1. Calculate emission effect V(t) (e.g., temperature
   change) of year t assuming that all the regions
   emit anthropogenic CO2 according to Scenarios.
2. Calculate emission effect VR (t) assuming that
   one of the regions R does not emit anthropogenic
   CO2 during the period between the emissions start
   year and an emissions end year.
3. Contribution of the region Rs emissions for the
   period is the difference V(t) VR (t).

• Minimization of non-linearity error
• Avoidance of non-anthropogenic emission effect

NOTE
9
CO2 Emissions Accumulated in Atmosphere
Phase 2 results
(1) Emissions end year 2010

• A2 Scenario

Attribution () in 2100
Emissions end year
OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
2010 45 14 26
15 2050 35 11 33
21 2100 28 10
36 26
(2) Emissions end year 2050
(3) Emissions end year 2100
10
CO2 Concentration
Phase 2 results
(1) Emissions end year 2010

• A2 Scenario

Attribution () in 2100
Emissions end year
OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
2010 45 14 26
15 2050 35 11 33
21 2100 28 9
36 27
(3) Emissions end year 2100
(2) Emissions end year 2050
11
Radiative Forcing of CO2
Phase 2 results
(1) Emissions end year 2010

• A2 Scenario

Attribution () in 2100
Emissions end year
OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
2010 45 14 26
15 2050 35 11 33
21 2100 27 9
37 27
(3) Emissions end year 2100
(2) Emissions end year 2050
12
Global-Average Temperature Change
Phase 2 results
(1) Emissions end year 2010

• A2 Scenario

Attribution () in 2100
Emissions end year
OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
2010 45 14 26
15 2050 35 11 33
21 2100 27 9
37 27
(3) Emissions end year 2100
(2) Emissions end year 2050
13
Global-Average Sea Level Rise
Phase 2 results
(1) Emissions end year 2010

• A2 Scenario

Attribution () in 2100
Emissions end year
OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
2010 45 14 26
15 2050 35 11 33
21 2100 30 9
36 25
(3) Emissions end year 2100
(2) Emissions end year 2050
14
CO2 Emissions Accumulated in Atmosphere
Phase 2 results
(1) Emissions end year 2010

• B1 Scenario

Attribution () in 2100
Emissions end year
OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
2010 44 14 26
16 2050 30 9 31
30 2100 24 9
30 37
(2) Emissions end year 2050
(3) Emissions end year 2100
15
CO2 Concentration
Phase 2 results
(1) Emissions end year 2010

• B1 Scenario

Attribution () in 2100
Emissions end year
OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
2010 44 14 26
16 2050 29 9 31
31 2100 23 8
30 39
(3) Emissions end year 2100
(2) Emissions end year 2050
16
Radiative Forcing of CO2
Phase 2 results
(1) Emissions end year 2010

• B1 Scenario

Attribution () in 2100
Emissions end year
OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
2010 44 13 26
17 2050 29 9 31
31 2100 23 8
29 40
(3) Emissions end year 2100
(2) Emissions end year 2050
17
Global-Average Temperature Change
Phase 2 results
(1) Emissions end year 2010

• B1 Scenario

Attribution () in 2100
Emissions end year
OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
2010 44 14 26
16 2050 29 9 31
31 2100 23 8
30 39
(3) Emissions end year 2100
(2) Emissions end year 2050
18
Global-Average Sea Level Rise
Phase 2 results
(1) Emissions end year 2010

• B1 Scenario

Attribution () in 2100
Emissions end year
OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
2010 44 14 26
16 2050 30 9 31
30 2100 25 9
30 36
(3) Emissions end year 2100
(2) Emissions end year 2050
19
CO2 Emissions Accumulated in Atmosphere
Phase 2 results
(1) Emissions end year 2010

• A1FI Scenario

Attribution () in 2100
Emissions end year
OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
2010 44 14 26
16 2050 30 9 31
30 2100 24 9
30 37
(2) Emissions end year 2050
(3) Emissions end year 2100
20
CO2 Concentration
Phase 2 results
(1) Emissions end year 2010

• A1FI Scenario

Attribution () in 2100
Emissions end year
OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
2010 45 14 27
14 2050 30 12 39
19 2100 25 10
38 27
(3) Emissions end year 2100
(2) Emissions end year 2050
21
Radiative Forcing of CO2
Phase 2 results
(1) Emissions end year 2010

• A1FI Scenario

Attribution () in 2100
Emissions end year
OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
2010 45 14 27
14 2050 30 12 39
19 2100 24 10
39 27
(3) Emissions end year 2100
(2) Emissions end year 2050
22
Global-Average Temperature Change
Phase 2 results
(1) Emissions end year 2010

• A1FI Scenario

Attribution () in 2100
Emissions end year
OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
2010 45 14 27
14 2050 30 12 39
19 2100 25 10
38 27
(3) Emissions end year 2100
(2) Emissions end year 2050
23
Global-Average Sea Level Rise
Phase 2 results
(1) Emissions end year 2010

• A1FI Scenario

Attribution () in 2100
Emissions end year
OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
2010 45 14 27
14 2050 31 12 39
18 2100 26 10
39 25
(3) Emissions end year 2100
(2) Emissions end year 2050