International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA

1
International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA)

• RAINS-Asia Phase 2
• An Integrated Assessment Model
• for Controlling SO2 Emissions
• in Asia

M. Amann, H. Akimoto, G. Carmichael, J.-P.
Hettelingh, Y. Ichikawa, K. Oka, J. Shindo, D.
Streets
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Contents

• Model structure
• Improvements
• Illustrative results
• Conclusions

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Improvements achieved in Phase 2

• Updated energy projections (2030)
• 400 LPS
• Flexible region definition, zoom-in capabilities
• Multi-year meteorology
• SO2 concentrations in ambient air
• Improved database on critical loads with 0.10.1
  degree resolution
• Windows-based software
• Improved user guidance
• Optimization feature

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SO2 emissions in Asia 1984-1998 Source Streets
et al., 2000
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A revised energy projection for ChinaSource
ERI, Beijing

• Changes 1995-2020
• Population 25
• GDP 420
• Total energy demand 70
• Coal 50
• Gas 300
• Renewables 30

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SO2 concentrationsannual mean ?g/m3, WHO limit
50 ?g/m3
2020 with current legislation
1995
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Sulfur deposition
2020 with current legislation
1995
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Vegetation map of AsiaSource CCE, RIVM
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Unprotected ecosystems with sulfur deposition
above sustainable levels (critical loads)
2020 with current legislation
1995
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Optimization in RAINS
Energy/agriculture projections
Emission control options
OPTIMIZATION
Emissions
Costs
Atmospheric dispersion
Environmental targets
Environmental impacts
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Cost-savings through targeted (optimized)
emission controls
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Cost-savings through targeted (optimized)
emission controls
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Conclusions

• RAINS-Asia 2 now available on CD-ROM
• SO2 emissions projections lower than 5 years
  agodue to slower economic growth and new
  legislation on emission controls
• But acidification problem in Asia will not be
  fully resolved
• Optimization tool can assist in finding
  cost-effective solutions
• Extension to multi-pollutant (PM, NOx, O3, GHG?)
  approach seems possible and relevant

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RAINS Asia 2

• Software on CD-ROM available
• Contact Asian Development Bank
• or IIASA (http//www.iiasa.ac.at/rains)
• Training sessions planned
• Zooming-in for national purposes possible,
  supported by IIASA

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On the Internet

• Slides of this presentation
• in Powerpoint format
• are available at
• http//www.iiasa.ac.at/rains