Session Goals

1
Session Goals
The complexity of estimating population
parameters Metrics for quantifying population
status Linkage of these metrics to habitat
features
Main Questions How do different habitats and
their features affect salmon populations?   What
management options will best improve population
persistence?
2
Redd
Stream
Emergent Fry
Spawning Adults
Estuary
Juveniles
Adults
Nearshore
Juveniles
Adults
Ocean
3
Redd
Stream
Emergent Fry
Spawning Adults
Estuary
Juveniles
Adults
Nearshore
Juveniles
Adults
Ocean
4
The Complexity of Parameterizing a
Habitat-Specific Model
Habitat Variable
Demographic variable
Stream flow Temperature Gradient Substrate
heterogeneity Riparian vegetation Woody
debris Predator abundance
Survival Fecundity Habitat Residency Age at
maturity Sex ratio Density Capacity
5
Redd
Stream flow Temperature Gradient Substrate
heterogeneity Riparian vegetation Woody
debris Predator abundance
Stream
Emergent Fry
Spawning Adults
Estuary
Juveniles
Adults
Nearshore
Juveniles
Adults
Ocean
6
A Coarse-ScaleParameterization
Skagit River
7
A Habitat-Specific Model for Pink Salmon
Age 1 2
1 o2µnaeasafm
2 rsjejnjo1
Leslie Matrix
r s e n habitat-specific survival µ 1 -
(harvest mortality) ox ocean survival f
natal sex ratio m age-specific fecundity
8
A Habitat-Specific Model for Pink Salmon
N2002
112 M
56,000
Age 1 2
1 o2µnaeasafm
2 rsjejnjo1

r s e n habitat-specific survival µ 1 -
(harvest mortality) ox ocean survival f
natal sex ratio m age-specific fecundity
9
A Habitat-Specific Model for Pink Salmon
N2003
176 M
63,000
N2002
112 M
56,000
Age 1 2
1 o2µnaeasafm
2 rsjejnjo1


r s e n habitat-specific survival µ 1 -
(harvest mortality) ox ocean survival f
natal sex ratio m age-specific fecundity
10
Metrics of Population Status
Number of juveniles N(1)trsjejnj Number of
spawners N(2)to2a2µnaeasa Population
productivity (l) Nt1/Nt
Nt1
N(1)t1
N(2)t1
Nt
N(1)t
N(2)t
Age 1 2
1 o2µnaeasafm
2 rsjejnjo1


11
A Habitat-Specific Model for Chinook Salmon
Age 1 2 3 4 5
1 o3a3µnaeasafm3 o4a4µnaeasafm4 o5a5µnaeasafm5
2 rsjejnj
3 o2
4 o3(1-a3)
5 o4(1-a4)
r s e n habitat-specific survival µ 1 -
(harvest mortality) ox yearly ocean survival
f natal sex ratio ax age-specific
breeding propensity mx age-specific fecundity
12
Freshwater Survival
y 0.202 1.2310-6x R2 0.87
From Seiler et al, 2000
13
Density Dependence in Harvest
14
A Habitat-Specific Model for Chinook Salmon
Age 1 2 3 4 5
1 o3a3µnaeasafm3 o4a4µnaeasafm4 o5a5µnaeasafm5
2 rsjejnj
3 o2
4 o3(1-a3)
5 o4(1-a4)
r s e n habitat-specific survival µ 1 -
(harvest mortality) ox yearly ocean survival
f natal sex ratio ax age-specific
breeding propensity mx age-specific fecundity
15
Main Questions How do different habitats and
their features affect salmon populations?   What
management options will best improve population
persistence?
16
What is the relative importance of each
parameter?
Redd
rj
Stream
Emergent Fry
Spawning Adults
sj
Estuary
Juveniles
Adults
ej
Nearshore
Juveniles
Adults
m
nj
Ocean
o
17
How important is each parameter?
18
Density Dependence in Estuaries
(Beamer et al 2000)
19
Density Dependence in Estuaries
(Beamer pers. comm.)
20
Different Types of Density Dependence Have
Different Consequences
NDD Survival
Habitat Selection
21
Research Priorities Effects of fine-scale
habitat features Effects of large-scale
variation on population dynamics Movements of
salmon among aquatic habitats