Fossil Dependency and Security

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Fossil Dependency and Security
Gary Gardner, Worldwatch Institute
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Energy Security

• World oil discoveries have been lagging
  production since the 1980s

60
50
40
30
Billion Barrels
20
10
0
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
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Global Consumer ClassBy Region, 2002
Selected Consumers Share of Regions
(millions) World Total U.S. and
Canada 271 16 Western Europe 349
20 East Asia and Pacific 494 29 South
Asia 141 8 Industrial
Countries 912 53 Developing Countries 816
47 World 1,728
100
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Global Consumer ClassBy Country, 2002
Share of Selected Consumers
National Countries (millions)
Population () United States 243
84 China 240 19 India 122
12 Japan 121 95 Germany 76
92 Brazil 58 33
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Oil Use 2004(million barrels per day)
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Oil Use per Person 2004 (barrels per year)
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China Demand for Oil Sharply Outpaces Supply
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(No Transcript)
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Security of Deliveries

• Increased long-distance deliveries
• Chinas vulnerabilities
• Other concerns funding terrorists

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Climate Insecurity

• Low-lying nations
• Europes Heat Wave
• Americas Katrina

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III. Untapped Possibilities
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World Energy Use 2003 Fossil Fuels Dominate
Source IEA, Martinot
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World Energy Growth, 2000 - 2005Renewables
Dominate
Annual Rate of Growth
Source Eric Martinot BP
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Global Renewable Resource Base (Exajoules/year)
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Global Renewable Resource Base (Exajoules/year)
Contd
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Indias Renewables Potential
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Solar Water Heater Use in China
(Million m2 Installed)
Source HuiCong (HC) International Information
Co., Ltd.
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India Potential Improvements in Efficiency
Source TERI
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IV. A Grand Bargain for Energy and Climate
Security?

• --move forward on renewables, collaboratively
• --move forward on efficiency, collaboratively
• --goal wean nations of oil and coal to maximum
  extent possible

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What is Missing

• The Moral Argument
• Need Moral Tools to Make the Argument
• gtEducators
• gtMedia
• gtReligious Community

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Worldwatch Institute
Further information and references in State of
the World 2006
Visit us www.worldwatch.org