Threats to Food Security

1
Threats to Food Security

• Fall 2012 , Lecture 4

2
Food Crisis

• Beginning in 2007, the world faced a food crisis
• Food riots occurred in India, Mexico, and Yemen
• In late October, the Russian government, hoping
  to ease tensions ahead of parliamentary elections
  early next year, announced a price freeze for
  milk, bread and other foods through the end of
  January
• The principle cause was the rising price of oil,
  which had reached about 100/barrel near the end
  of the year

2
3
Food Cost Increases in 2007

• Inflation was driven by double-digit price hikes
  for almost every basic foodstuff
• Dairy products prices rose as much as 200 in
  some countries
• Maize prices hit a 10-year high in February
• Wheat was up 50, rice up 16 and poultry nearly
  10
• Retail prices are up 18 in China, 17 in Sri
  Lanka and 10 or more throughout Latin America
  and Russia. Zimbabwe tops the chart with a more
  than a 25 increase.

3
4
Biofuel vs. Food

• Certain foods can be converted into biofuels,
  such as ethanol or biodiesel
• Use of food for energy production drives up the
  price of food
• World Banks food price index rose by 15 between
  October 2010 and January 2011, and was 29 above
  its level a year earlier
• The quarterly increase was driven largely by
  increases in the price of sugar (20), fats and
  oils (22), wheat (20), and maize (12)

4
5
Maize (corn)

• Maize prices have increased sharply and are
  affected by complex linkages with other markets
• In January 2011, maize prices were about 73
  higher than June 2010 - These increases are due
  to
• A series of downward revisions of crop forecasts
• Low stocks (U.S. stocks-to-use ratio for 2010/11
  is projected to be 5 the lowest since 1995)
• Positive relationship between maize and wheat
  prices
• The use of corn for biofuels

5
6
Use of Maize for Biofuel

• Ethanol production demand for corn increases as
  oil prices go up, with sugar-based ethanol less
  competitive at current sugar prices
• United States Department of Agriculture estimates
  show the share of ethanol for fuel rising from
  31 of U.S. corn output in 2008/9 to a projected
  40 in 2010/11

6
7
Impact of Rising Food Prices

• World Bank estimates that the fourth quarter 2010
  rise in food prices may have put 44 million
  people into poverty
• 68 million people who fell below the 1.25 per
  person per day poverty line and 24 million net
  food producers who were able to escape extreme
  poverty, due to rising rice prices

7
8
Relation of Food and Petroleum Prices

• Prices of oil affect food prices through
• Their effects on the prices of fertilizers
• Their effects on transportation costs
• Incentives for the diversion of food production
  into biofuels

8
9
Biofuels Animated Diagram

• National Geographic Biofuels

9
10
Biofuel Sources

• Corn (maize)
• Sugar cane
• Jatropha
• Cellulose (crop residue)

10
11
National Corn Growers Association
11
12
Before Spin

• Ethanol production makes huge amounts of the
  nations corn disappear some 1.4 billion
  bushels went into ethanol production in 2004
  and that affects overall corn supply and helps
  shore up corn prices nationwide.
• From NCGA website, July 2, 2005, as cited in
  Thermodynamics of the Corn-Ethanol Biofuel
  Cycle by Tad W. Patzek, Department of Civil and
  Environmental Engineering, University of
  California, Berkeley, page 2

12
13
Thermodynamic Analysis

• Patzak concludes, the total energy inputs into
  ethanol production are equivalent to 45 metric
  tonnes of gasoline per hectare
• The ethanols calorific value is equal to 11.3
  metric tonnes of gasoline.
• This is based on an exhaustive analyses (96 page
  report)

13
14
Corn

• Despite industry spin, corn is, at best, a
  marginal source for ethanol production
• Ethanol has lower energy content per unit volume
  than gasoline, so a gallon of E10 fuel does not
  propel a vehicle as far as a gallon of pure
  gasoline
• Corn used to make ethanol converts 0.5 of solar
  energy to fuel
• Solar photovoltaic panels or solar thermal plants
  are about 15 efficient

14
15
Fuel Efficiency

• vehicles will typically go 34 fewer miles per
  gallon on E10 than on straight gasoline.
• Flexible fuel vehicles operating on E85 usually
  experience a 2530 drop in miles per gallon due
  to ethanols lower energy content
• From http//www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/ethanol.shtml,
  the official U.S. government source for fuel
  economy information

15
16
Mike Krueger Interview

• Interview with Mike Krueger, is the founder and
  President of The Money Farm
• The Money Farm is a grain marketing advisory
  service located near Fargo, North Dakota, that
  works with individual farmers, country elevators
  and others associated with agriculture
• He is a licensed commodity broker

• This interview appeared on  Oklahoma Horizon TV
  as Show 639, probably in 2007

17
Sugar Cane

• Sugar cane has been used for ethanol production,
  starting in the 1970s in Brazil
• The ratio of output energy (renewable) to input
  energy (fossil) for sugar cane varies between are
  8.3 and 10.2
• Both former presidents George W. Bush and Bill
  Clinton have endorsed the use of sugar cane for
  biofuel production
• Clinton added a warning against deforestation,
  however

17
18
Jatropha

• A plant native to Central America, which produces
  seeds which have long been used around the world
  as a source of lamp oil and soap
• It is not a food crop, and can grow on eroded
  farmland or land considered non-arable for food
  crops
• Jatropha seeds can be crushed to yield jatropha
  oil, which can be processed to produce biodiesel
  fuel suitable for use in a standard diesel car
• The residue from crushing can be processed and
  used as biomass feedstock to power electricity
  plants or used as fertilizer

18
19
Jatropha Advantages

• Can be ground on marginal land, not competing
  with food crops
• Can be converted in very small scale plants to
  biodiesel fuel say in a rural village
• Grow crop
• Press oil
• Convert to biodiesel for use in village, with no
  transportation costs

19
20
Jatropha Drawbacks

• Has not been domestically cultivated, although
  work is on-going in both China and India towards
  cultivation
• Many species produce toxic compounds, and
  ingesting as little as three seeds of one species
  can be fatal

20
21
Cellulose

• Plant residue is composed mainly of cellulose
• Cellulose is an organic compound with the formula
  (C6H10O5)n
• It is a a polysaccharide consisting of a linear
  chain of several hundred to over ten thousand
  linked glucose units (the n in the formula)

22
Uses of cellulose

• Cellulose is used to make paper and paperboard
• It may be converted to cellophane or rayon
• Research is underway to convert cellulose to
  cellulosic ethanol as an alternative fuel source
• No cost effective method exists today
• Cellulose offers a vast source of energy, if such
  a method is developed, so there is economic
  incentive
• Cellulosic ethanol would not compete with food

23
Negative Impacts of Biofuel Production

• Increased biofuel production is expected to have
  large impacts on biological diversity in the
  coming decades
• Habitat loss mainly from cropland expansion will
  be most important impact
• In Brazil, the planted area of sugar cane
  comprised 9 million hectares in 2008 (up 27
  since 2007).
• In Southeast Asia, palm oil expansion for food
  and non-food purposes is regarded as one of the
  leading causes of rainforest destruction
• Two-thirds of the current expansion of palm oil
  cultivation in Indonesia is based on the
  conversion of rainforests, one third is based on
  previously cultivated or to-date fallow land

23
24
Negative Impacts, cont.

• Increased invasive species and nutrient
  pollution.
• Species and genotypes of grasses suggested as
  future feedstocks of biofuels may become critical
  as invaders
• Nutrient emissions to water and air resulting
  from intensive fuel cropping will impact species
  composition in aquatic and terrestrial systems.
• Modeling the future biodiversity balance for
  different crops on different land types has shown
  that GHG reductions from biofuel production would
  often not be enough to compensate for the
  biodiversity losses from increased land use
  conversion, not even within a time frame of
  several decades

24
25
Negative Carbon Offset

• In a study by Lapola et al., which appeared in
  PNAS, the authors conclude that, The planned
  expansion of biofuel plantations in Brazil could
  potentially cause both direct and indirect
  land-use changes.
• Biofuel plantations replace rangelands
• Rangelands replace forest
• Any resulting deforestation can offset carbon
  savings through biofuel use

25
26
Negative Carbon Offset 2

• Palm oil would cause the least land use change,
  and resulting negative carbon offset
• Lapola et al. recommend that, a closer
  collaboration or strengthened institutional link
  between the biofuel and cattle-ranching sectors
  in the coming years is crucial for effective
  carbon savings from biofuels in Brazil

26
27
Bioethanol Production
27
28
Biodiesel Production
28
29
OECD-FAO Food Price Forecast

• OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook states that over
  the coming decade real prices for cereals could
  average as much as 20 higher and those for meats
  as much as 30 higher, compared to 2001-10.

29
30
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook

• The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020 says,
  Higher prices for commodities are being passed
  through the food chain, leading to rising
  consumer price inflation in most countries
• This raises concerns for economic stability and
  food security in some developing countries, with
  poor consumers most at risk of malnutrition, the
  report says

31
Agricultural Outlook Report

• When inflation is factored in, the nominal prices
  what people actually pay will be still
  higher, making food bills yet harder to stomach.
• People are going be forced, either to literally
  eat less, or find other sources of income," said
  Angel Gurría, the head of OECD
• The worlds slow growing supply of food coupled
  with high demand will be to blame for the rising
  prices, according to the experts behind the
  report.

32
Voice of America Newscast

• Aired 8-12-12

33
KCCI Video

• Video segment from Des Moines TV station, 8/6/12

34
Changing Dietary Preferences

• Economic growth, urbanization and rising
  affluence are influencing diet preferences
• Higher demand for
• Convenient, processed foods
• Meat
• Dairy products
• A western diet!

35
Malnourishment

• Under eating, leading to starvation
• Overeating, leading to obesity, diabetes, etc.
• Increasing strain on health-care systems

36
Over-Indulgence and Waste

• In 2007, the average American ate more than twice
  as much meat as the average Chinese resident
• At the same time, consumers in rich countries
  waste almost as much food as the entire food
  production of sub-Saharan Africa

37
Different Patterns of Obesity

• In the U.S., seven of the 10 states with the
  highest poverty levels are also among the 10
  states with the highest rates of obesity
• In emerging countries obesity tends to be
  concentrated in the middle classes those who
  lead more sedentary lifestyles and consume more
  processed foods.
• Countries such as Mexico and South Africa are
  having to increasingly deal with problems of the
  over-fed at the same time as those of the
  under-fed.

38
Livestock

• One kilogram of beef requires
• Twelve times the water needed to produce 1 kg of
  wheat
• More than five times as much land

39
Protein Prices

• Aired 8-7-12
• WTHI TV, Terra Haute, Indiana

40
Crop Yield and Fertilizer Input

• Green revolution
• High-yielding crop varieties
• Chemical fertilizers
• Pesticides
• Irrigation
• Mechanization

Global Fertilizer use
40
41
Corn, Wheat Comparison

• Recent increase in corn production due to use of
  corn for biofuel production

• Input costs have been stable over the last 10
  years, increasing with inflation however,
  fertilizer has more doubled in price
• Per acre, the cost of a nitrogen-based
  fertilizer is now almost double that of the seed
  cost
• Why has fertilizer cost outpaced that of
  labor, machinery, land, and seed costs?

41
42
Energy Costs of N-fertilizer

• Production of 1 kg Nitrogen fertilizer requires
  an amount of energy equal to 1.5 liters of diesel
  fuel (1)
• The cost of natural gas now accounts for up to 90
  percent of the cost of making nitrogen
  fertilizer, according to the U.S. Government
  Accountability Office (2)
• Sources (1) and (2) are shown in lower pane
  (applies to all future presentations)

42
43
U.S. Food System

• The US food production system uses about 50 of
  the total US land area, 80 of the fresh water,
  and 17 of the fossil energy used in the country
• The heavy dependence on fossil energy suggests
  that the US food system, whether meat-based or
  plant-based, is not sustainable