Sentencing Guidelines Reanalysis

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Sentencing Guidelines Reanalysis

• Progress Report

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Sentencing Guidelines Reanalysis 2002

• At its March 2002 meeting, the Commission
  approved a work plan for conducting a thorough
  reanalysis of the current sentencing guidelines.
• The reanalysis will provide a focused picture of
  Virginias experiences since the abolition of
  parole.
• Five of years of truth-in-sentencing data has
  only recently become available.
• FY1997-2001 sentencing events

• Two analysts, working independently, study each
  offense group.
• System of checks and balances

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Reanalysis and Revisions

• Input from Commission members is vital to guide
  and shape analysis.
• Experience and expertise of Commission members
  will be valuable to analysts as models are
  explored.
• The Commission, to date, has not made
  prescriptive adjustments to the guidelines.
• Prescriptive adjustments have been mandated by
  the General Assembly.
• Midpoint enhancements
• Nonviolent offender risk assessment
• Sex offender risk assessment

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Guidelines Structure

• During reanalysis, staff are exploring
  alternatives to the current guidelines structure.
• Section A In/Out Decision (Incarceration gt 6
  mos.)
• Section B Probation/Jail Decision
  (Incarceration lt6 mos.)
• Section C Sentence Length Decision
  (Incarceration gt6 mos.)
• This allows staff to assess the feasibility of
  simplifying the guidelines while maintaining
  statistical power of the sentencing models.

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Modeling the In/Out Decision

• Logistic regression is used to identify which
  factors are significant in the in/out sentencing
  decision.
• Discriminant analysis is used to determine the
  independent effect of each significant factor.

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Homicide Guidelines Reanalysis (Preliminary)
Note Because nearly 100 of offenders convicted
of completed 1st degree murder, 2nd degree
murder, felony murder or aggravated
vehicular manslaughter receive an active term of
incarceration, these cases were
excluded from the analysis of the incarceration
in/out decision. Offenders convicted of
completed 1st degree murder, 2nd degree murder,
felony murder or aggravated vehicular
manslaughter will be automatically recommended by
the guidelines for incarceration.
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Homicide Guidelines Reanalysis (Preliminary)
Significant Factors for Incarceration In/Out
Decisions In Homicide Cases (attempted 1st and
2nd murder, involuntary and voluntary
manslaughter only) LEGAL FACTORS ONLY
Note Because nearly 100 of offenders convicted
of completed 1st degree murder, 2nd degree
murder, felony murder or aggravated vehicular
manslaughter receive an active term of
incarceration, these cases were excluded from the
analysis of the incarceration in/out decision.
Offenders convicted of completed 1st degree
murder, 2nd degree murder, felony murder or
aggravated vehicular manslaughter will be
automatically recommended by the guidelines for
incarceration.
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Modeling the Sentence Length Decision

• This stage of analysis includes only those cases
  that resulted in an active term of incarceration.
• Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Regression
• Results are calculated by minimizing the models
  prediction error.

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Homicide Guidelines Reanalysis (Preliminary)
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Homicide Guidelines Reanalysis (Preliminary)
Significant Factors for Sentence Length
Decisions In Homicide Cases
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Homicide Guidelines Reanalysis (Preliminary)
Significant Factors for Sentence Length
Decisions In Homicide Cases LEGAL FACTORS ONLY
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Developing Worksheet Scores

• Worksheet scores are developed from the weights
  of factors in the model.
• For the sentence length model, the score
  represents months of incarceration (recommended
  midpoint).

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Status Update

• In addition to homicide, reanalysis of robbery,
  rape and sexual assault offense groups is
  underway.
• Supplemental data collection for rape and sexual
  assault cases is completed.
• Offense detail was taken from PSI narratives and
  prior record detail was extracted from
  rap sheets.
• Data has been automated and preliminary analysis
  has begun.
• Models will be presented to the Research
  Subcommittee.
• Recommendations will be made at the November
  meeting.

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