Energy Energy, Law

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Energy Energy, Law Policy Prof. Ken
RichardsIndiana University Ben Brabson, IU
Physics

• Conclusions
• Science of
• climate change
• Emissions
• temperature
• Impacts constraints
• Sustainable ways
• forward
• Discussion

Coalbrookdale Iron Works 1722 Thomas Newcomen
built his steam-driven pumps to remove the flood
water from the coal mines.
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My Conclusion

• That we are obliged to move away from our own
  non-sustainable and climate-damaging fossil fuel
  use as quickly as possible. (BBB 9/3/08)

• If not for the greenhouse effect, we may have
  been able to postpone (the decision to look
  beyond fossil fuels) to the 22nd century, because
  there are massive coal reserves available, and
  coal can be made into synthetic fuels. We could
  have developed the world economy based on fossil
  fuels . But with the greenhouse effect, we have
  to make the transition much earlier, perhaps in
  the early 21st century. That means that we have
  to look very seriously at the alternatives.
• Martin
  Hoffert, Professor, New York University

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Greenhouse Effect

• Two transparent windows
• Solar radiation visible (0.3-0.8 mm)
• Earth radiation infrared (7-15 mm)
• Major infrared absorbers
• CH4,
• N2O,
• O3,
• CO2,
• H2O

CH4
N2O
O2,O3
CO2
H2O
Piexoto Oort
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Feedback in Climate
T ? T
Positive feedback example A warmer surface
temperature reduces the size of the highly
reflective polar ice fields. The less reflective
soil or open ocean absorbs more solar radiation
increasing the surface temperature even further.
Negative feedback example T ? T A
warmer surface temperature evaporates additional
water forming more cloud. The cloud layer
reflects incoming solar energy, reducing the
surface temperature.
? Climate Models
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(No Transcript)
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Last 1000 years of CO2
385 ppm
280 ppm
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Reserves Reserves are fuels that have already
been discovered, their quantity measured, and
they are known to be extractable at competitive
prices.  Resources Resources include reserves
and, in addition, deposits that are inferred or
expected, for which recovery is anticipated to be
technically and economically feasible.  This is
the quantity used to estimate fuel lifetimes.
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Natural Gas from Shale (NYT 8/25/08)

• 20 tcf/yr US Consumption
• 2008 Estimate of economically recoverable natural
  gas from shale.
• 125 tcf/yr 0.13 Q 6 yrs
• Maximum possible resource
• 842 tcf/yr 0.87 Q 40 yrs

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Global WarmingPrediction

• L. David Roper
• Professor Emeritus of Physics
• Virginia Polytechnic Inst. St. Univ.
• roperld_at_vt.edu
• http//arts.bev.net/RoperLDavid
• http//www.roperld.com/science/GlobalWarmingPredic
  tion.htm

Global Warming and Peak Oil may be the greatest
challenges that humans have encountered in the
last 10,000 years.
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Verhulst Function for resources depletion.
Q? amount already extracted amount left to be
extracted total amount to be extracted
n ? 1 allows asymmetry.
Verhulst Function An asymmetric peaked curve.
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Oil discoveries will not allow higher average
extraction.
Peak Oil
Skewed toward later times.
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You cant extract it if you have not discovered
it!
Areas under both curves are the same. That is,
the amount discovered equals the amount extracted.
discoveries
extraction
The areas under the two curves are the same
2x1012 barrels.
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You cant extract it if you have not discovered
it!
Areas under both curves are the same. That is,
the amount discovered equals the amount extracted.
discoveries
The areas under the two curves are the same
8x1015 cu. ft.
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Peaks between 2060 2100
Double known coal. Unlikely!
Known existent coal (EIA)
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Factors and Assumptions

• Coal 50 carbon, short ton 0.907 tonnes
• Crude oil 84 carbon, bbl 0.136 tonnes
• Natural gas 76 carbon, tcf 0.0189 tonnes
• CO2 concentration in ppmv 0.47 x gigatonnes
  carbon emitted (may increase with high
  concentration i.e., may be nonlinear see later)
• Climate sensitivity 3C for doubling CO2
• 25 of fossil fuels are used to make useful
  materials or are lost instead of being burned.
• Background year 1700 CO2 concentration 280 ppmv

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CO2 concentration due to Fossil-Fuels burning
background
Below measured data, as it should be.
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Atmospheric CO2 from Oil, Gas, and Coal
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Assume carbon sequestration or a coal-burning
moratorium.
Probably optimistic!
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Temperatures for some of the cases considered
Double Coal
Coal Moratorium or Carbon Sequestration
Assumes that there is no triggering of Earth
states.
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• !Some Nightmares!
• Suppose concentration/emissions factor changes
  with increasing concentration from 0.47 to 0.94
  (land and ocean become saturated with CO2).
• Suppose permafrosted tundra release of carbon
  during the next century (example of temperature
  feedback).
• Suppose climate sensitivity changes from 3 to 4
  over the next two centuries. (It is known that it
  changes to 6 over millennia because of slow
  feedbacks.)

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David Ropers Conclusions

• Peaking fossil fuels keeps CO2 concentration from
  going extremely high, unless it triggers other
  effects.
• Since temperature rise of about 0.8C from 18th
  century is already causing disastrous events, the
  continuing increase of another 1C or more will
  cause even more disasters and may other Earth
  changes that will cause a higher temperature.
• The peaking of fossil fuels may be as large
  immediate disaster as is global warming.

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10 Min Break!
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Global Surface Temperature to 2007
Goddard Institute for Space Studies (US)
Climatic Research Unit Hadley Centre (UK)

• Looking at the northern hemisphere alone, 2007
  temperatures averaged 15.04 degrees Celsius (59.1
  degrees Fahrenheit)easily the hottest year in
  the northern half of the globe since the record
  began in 1880, and more than a degree warmer than
  the 195180 average. Paleo-temperature records
  from ancient tree rings suggest that the northern
  hemisphere is now warmer than at any time in at
  least the last 1,200 years. GISS

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The Millennial Temperature RecordJones, et al
Climatic Research Unithttp//www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cr
u/info/milltemp/

• Different choices of Northern Hemisphere proxies
  (trees, ice cores, corals, lake marine
  sediments, and historical documents)
• Natural forcing from sun and volcanoes dominate
  the pre-1850 record and only human activities
  appear to adequately explain the rise in
  temperature during the 20th century.

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Climate Change Summary

• Snow pack in Himalaya, Rocky Mountains ? summer
  drought in downstream areas. T
• Open Arctic water in summer absorbs far more
  solar energy than when ice-covered. Positive
  feedback
• Ocean expansion (warming) and Greenland,
  Antarctica Northern Canada rapid melting ? rapid
  glacial flow ? Sea level rise T
• Thresholds, when crossed, make rapid transitions
• Fresh water melting into the North Atlantic slows
  the Gulf Stream
• Ocean surface temperature above 27oC ? increased
  hurricane severity.

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IPCC Working Group II Sensitivity
vulnerability of natural human systems to
climate change and potential consequences of
climate change

• Present impacts (measurements)
• Observational evidence from all continents and
  most oceans shows that many natural systems are
  being affected by regional climate changes,
  particularly temperature increases.
• Hydrological systems changes are occurring a.)
  increased runoff and earlier spring peak
  discharge in many glacier- and snow-fed rivers,
  2.) warming of lakes and rivers in many regions,
  with effects on thermal structure and water
  quality
• Marine and freshwater biological systems changes
  are associated with rising water temperatures, as
  well as related changes in ice cover, salinity,
  oxygen levels and circulation. An example shifts
  in ranges and changes in algal, plankton and fish
  abundance in high-latitude oceans

• Future impacts (models)
• Drought-affected areas will likely increase in
  extent. Heavy precipitation events which are very
  likely to increase in frequency, will augment
  flood risk.
• In the course of the century water supplies
  stored in glaciers and snow cover are projected
  to decline, reducing water availability in
  regions supplied by melt water from major
  mountain ranges where more than one-sixth of the
  world population currently lives.
• Over the course of this century, net carbon
  uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is likely to
  peak before mid-century and then weaken or even
  reverse, thus amplifying climate change.
• Approximately 20-30 of plant and animal species
  assessed so far are likely to be at increased
  risk of extinction if increases in global average
  temperature exceed 1.5-2.5C.

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Illinois Extreme Temperatures
Springfield Tmin Tmax HadCM3 - Northern
Illinois HadCM3 - Central Illinois HadCM3 -
Southern Illinois
Winter Tmin
Summer Tmax
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GEV Analysis of Illinois Extreme Temperatures
Unlike Britain, most of model movement during
21st century is in the mean, not in the width or
tail! We will see that SM already low.
Winter HadCM3 Tmin OK Summer HadCM3 Tmax Avg
T OK BUT Hot extremes too HOT!
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• So
• What to do?

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Martin Hoffert If it were not for climate
change, we would have had an additional 150 years
to develop alternative energy sources.
SUSTAINABILITY roughly, the ability to meet
our needs without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet theirs. Brundtland
Commission (1987)
Depletion
Present Oil/Gas/U Near Term Climate
Change Innovation Long Term COAL
COAL X
CARBON SEQ. OIL
X oil X GAS
X gas
X URANIUM X uranium
BREEDERS
TAR SANDS
X SOLAR (P.V., Wind, OTEC, Biomass..)

FUSION

GAS CLATH.

GEOTHERMAL
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Wedges of U.S. Carbon DisplacementAm. Solar
Energy Societys Tackling Climate Change in the
U.S.
Conservation Efficiency
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Carbon Displacement by Region in Am. Solar Energy
Societys, Tackling Climate Change
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Reducing Energy Use

• Green Architecture
• Green Building Resource Center http//www.globalg
  reen.org
• Robert Redford Bldg., Los Angeles
• Elizabeth Fry Building and Zicer Building at the
  University of East Anglia http//www.uea.ac.uk
• University of Alabama Winter/Summer geothermal
  scheme
• MIT Kresge Auditorium and Ice Skating Rink
• SPEA Green roof, high e materials
• Habitat Straw bale homes

• Recycling
• Cradle to Cradle Remaking the Way We Make
  Things, William McDonough Michael Braungart
• Germany Japan require that all autos,
  appliances, office equip. be designed to
  disassemble and recycle.
• NEC, Japanese electronics firm, clusters its
  factories waste from one process is raw material
  for another.
• PNC Financial Services in Pittsburg recycled an
  entire building.

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MIT Alabama

• MITs Kresge Auditorium (1953)
• Eero Saarinens 1200 tons of concrete shell
  resting on 3 points with no internal support,
  1/8th of a sphere
• And a new ice skating rink next door!
• What happened next, do you suppose?
• University of Alabama Student Recreational
  Center (1994)
• Spanning Summer/Winter cycle!
• Geothermal storage of summer heat under the
  campus for use the following winter.
• Average ground temperature 65 oF

Related ideas Winter Ice for summer
Flywheel (geothermal storage) Heat Pumps AC
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Carbon-neutral Energies

• Biomass
• Ethanol from sugar cane
• Biodiesel from soybeans, rape seed, jatropha
  curcas ? T
• Ethanol from cellulose
• Gasification to syngas ? T
• Pellets from compressed biomass waste CHP -
  UEA
• Geothermal storage
• Vertical/horiz. loop systems
• Solar
• passive, active, wind ? T
• OTEC, waves, tides
• Photovoltaics
• Direct Solar e.g. Spain
• Direct Stirling Engine ------gt

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• Examples from
• Dr. C. E. Sooriamoorthi
• Emeritus Professor
• Madurai Kamaraj University
• India
• c.e.soori_at_gmail.com

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Bio Diesel

• Oil from the plant Jatropha curcas

aka Physic Nut
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Main Distribution Regions
http//www.jatropha.de/
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Jatropha Curcas

• Semi tropical plant that
• - yields fruit from 3rd year and
• lives for 60yrs
• - Needs little water, fertilizer, and care
• - Not foliage (cattle food)
• - Has seeds that yield 12 ton /year/ hectare
• - Has oil content 30 by weight
• - can be directly uses in trucks, railway engines
• - costs .50/gallon

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Solar lantern for rural and hilly areas
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High-tech Higher-tech Ideas

• HIGH
• Innovative Transport
• Efficient Mass Transport
• High-speed trains
• Magnetic levitation
• Automobiles
• REVA solar cars - 60 mi/ch
• Plug-in Hybrids (80 mpg)
• Fuel cells (60 efficient)
• Carbon, CO2 Sequestration
• CO2 high pressure underground, ocean absorption,
  algal blooms, planting forests

• HIGHER
• Nuclear Reactors
• Fast reactors w/ pyrometallurgical reprocessing
  238U and transuranics like 239Pu become usable
  fuels. (Sci.A. 12/05)
• Safer Light Water Reactors pebble-bed reactors,
  AP-1000
• Martin Hofferts List
• Orbiting photovoltaics
• Superconducting grid ? wind/sol
• 32He fusion w/ moon mining
• Controlled fusion
• Methane Clatrates

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Coal Gasification

• I. Coal Gas Destructive distillation (pyrolysis)
  ? Coal Gas Coke. Since bituminous coal has
  an atomic ratio, H/C 0.6 and the energy content
  of carbon is 95 Kcal/mole and of hydrogen is 34
  Kcal/mole, about 18 of coals energy comes from
  hydrogen.
• II. Syngas Heating coal with steam produces
  synthesis gas, (COH2).
• C H20 ? CO H2

• III. IGCC The Integrated Gasification Combined
  Cycle captures waste heat from the gasification,
  and burns the syngas to generate electricity
  first from a gas turbine, then a steam turbine.
  Edwardsport, IN, Tampa, FL., above The CO2
  can also be captured for sequestration plans by
  Centrica and E.ON in UK

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Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle(IGCC)
Clean Syngas
Gas Turb. 180 MW
Air
Coal
Steam Turb. 120 MW
Water
C H2O ? CO H2
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Solar in Spain
Direct Solar
Acciona (Solargenix) - Nevada
Photovoltaics
Solucar (Abengoa) Solar Plant
Seville www.technologyreview.com/spain/solar/
Isofoton robot PV manufacture
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Nuclear Energy
Expensive (hard to make safe ? regulation) Limited
economic fuel available (oil) Proliferation of
Pu-239 unsolved High-level waste disposal
unsolved Catastrophic accidents have occurred
104 reactors ? 20 of US elec. CO2 produced
similar to wind Generation III safer (Apr 2002
Physics Today) Fast reactors could use U-238
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Rich new field for law!

• Example Developing wind projects in California
  or anywhere, Robert D. Castro, UCLA, Power
  151, no. 12, Dec. 2007.
• A.) 28 states now have Renewable Portfolio
  Standards (RPSs)
• 1.) California regulators have created RPSs for
  its 3 IOUs. They must increase total annual
  retail power sales from renewables by gt 1/yr and
  attain 20 by 2010, and Schwarzenegger pushing
  for 33 by 2020.
• 2.) The US house passed a national RPS at 15
  level by 2020, but still being debated in Senate.
• 3.) Wind is now mature, but often occurs in
  non-local settings. This introduces a regulatory
  approval process for transmission line companies.
  (2M/mile)

• 4.) FERC (Federal Regulatory Commission) may be
  involved if state regulators refuse to approve
  new transmission.
• 5.) Wind rights and land-use rights, like mineral
  rights, have been sold to wind developers.
• 6.) Environmental review process can be long
  (Cape Wind is now 12 years). The California
  Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) may require
  additional hearings, studies and documentation.
• 7.) Renewable Energy Credits (RECs) are valuable
  to the utility.
• 8.) Energy Policy Act (2005) provides a federal
  production tax credit (FTC) of 19cents/kWh until
  Dec 08.

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Discussion on the end of cheap energy

• Thomas Homer-Dixon, Trudeau Center for Peace and
  Conflict Studies at U. Toronto, The End of
  Ingenuity, Without doubt, mankind can find ways
  to push back constraints on global growth with
  market-driven innovation on energy supply,
  efficient use of energy and pollution cleanup.
  But we probably cant push them back
  indefinitely, because our species capacity to
  innovate, and to deliver the fruits of that
  innovation when and where theyre needed, isnt
  infinite. Sometimes even the best scientific
  minds cant crack a technical problem quickly
  (take for instance, the painfully slow evolution
  of battery technology in recent decades),
• In the larger sense, we really need to start
  thinking hard about how our societies
  especially those that are already very rich can
  maintain their social and political stability,
  and satisfy the aspirations of their citizens,
  when we can no longer count on endless economic
  growth.

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Discussion

• Economics vs. Physical Science
• 1.) How does economics deal with a finite
  resource like oil?
• 2.) How does economics deal with rapid
  transitions when oil ? 0?
• Economics vs. Government
• 1.) When must government (regulation law)
  enter the discussion?
• 2.) Do you anticipate the need for new laws
  to deal with new resources?
• 3.) Are international laws relevant in
  energy considerations?
• Economics vs. Ethics
• 1.) When do social justice issues enter in
  energy law?

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Federal Energy Policy Act (signed into law on
Aug. 8, 2005)

• Climate Unfriendly
• COAL - 2.9B tax sub.
• ELEC - 3.1B
• elec. transmission upgrades
• OIL/GAS - 2.6B
• Deep water drilling - 0.5B
• LNG import terminals
• Offshore Oil/Gas Inventory
• Not in the bill
• CAFE standards increase
• ANWR drilling ? Budget bill
• MBTE additive cleanup protection

• Climate Friendly
• CONS. E. EFF. - 1.3B
• ALTERNATIVE FUELS 1.3B
• RENEWABLE ELEC. PROD CREDIT - 2.7B
• (wind, solar, geothermal
• elec. generation)
• DAYLIGHT SAVINGS
• CLEAN COAL RESEARCH - 1.8B

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Energy, Conflict, and War

• Daniel Yurgin - The Prize, WWII Japan and
  Indonesia, Germany and The Caspian Sea
• Angola
• Columbia Venezuela
• Iraq
• Iran

• 2002 OIL (in green) ?
• US (20 Mbbl/d) 0.3B
• China (5Mbbl/d) 1.4B
• India (2Mbbl/d) 1.2B

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World Peak Oil
109 bbls/yr 40 30 20 10 0

• Scientific American 1970 M. King Hubberts
  prediction of world peak oil in 1970 based on
  production data from 1900-1960.
• Uppsala University, Sweden, K. Aleklett C.J.
  Campbell, 2003, Oil reserve additions minus
  consumption.

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
40 20 0 -20
1940 Year 2000
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M. King HubbertGeophysicist, MIT

• Petroleum Production from the lower 48 states
  during the rapid price increases of the 1970s and
  during the period of improved field technology.

Bbbls 3 2 1 0
1860 1900 1940 1980 2000 2040
Total US Oil Production (113 Bbbls
remaining in 1995)
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000