Coastal Vulnerability

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Coastal Vulnerability Adaptation Assessment
Process

• Pasha Carruthers,
• Cook Islands National Environment Service
• Jakarta, Indonesia, March 20th , 2006

Cook Islands Experiences Challenges
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Cook Islands

• Island micro-state
• Latitude 9-22S
• Longitude 157-166W
• limited land size (240 sq km)
• small population size (16,000?)
• limited natural resources
• external economic and physical impacts important
• geographic diversity with both high and low
  islands- VA only done on 3 islands

Todays Presentation Background Experience Method
s Findings Future Directions
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Socio-economic elements

• All live within 5 km of coast
• Tourism
• Pearls
• Commercial and Subsistence Seafood
• Coastal
• Flood Plain Agriculture

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Background

• Signatory to UNFCCC 1992
• needed to produce The Initial National
  Communication

• PICCAP - Pacific Islands Climate Change
  Assistance Programme 1997-2001
• Implemented by SPREP (South Pacific Regional
  Environment Programme)
• Assist countries to meet their obligations under
  the Convention
• Provided technical assistance, training, capacity
  building

• Country Team Approach
• USP VA Course
• Expected to integrate emphasis on model scenario
  generation PACCLIM
• Instead focused on
• expanding the VA statement to enhance full
  representation of the country
• qualitative baselines
• public awareness

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Cook Islands INC Experience

• Methods applied limited mainly to analogues,
  expert judgment, brainstorming
• Assumptions Not Tested
• Why so limited?
• Relevance to scale
• Capacity and Technology
• Poor understanding of other methods

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Models and Decisions

• Integrated Assessment Models still more theory
  than practice
• MAGICC, IMAGE others have benefits but time
  consuming to run meaningful(?) simulations
• Expensive PACCLIM demonstration tool has had
  limited applicability
• not simple, too many errors, closed programs
• useful application at the decision maker level
  requires a motivator and a greater level of
  completeness.
• Role as a training tool, for identifying cross
  sectoral considerations

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PACCLIM Outputs
Where is my island?
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Example of Cook Clim Inundation Simulation
Concerns Only for one island Not visually
significant for decision makers Population
Socio-economic info missing Time Consuming
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Brainstorming MethodMain Types Of Coastal
Sector Impacts
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Observed Impacts
Coastal Zones - erosion
Exposure of infrastructure and housing to storm
surge. Rarotonga - Coconut trees frequently
falling over, rock walls, groynes etc
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Observed Impacts cont

• Coastal Zones and Coral Reefs
• Coral Bleaching, poor reef health

Tongareva - Exposed coral heads sensitive to
temperature increases
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Observed Impacts

• Storm Surge, Cyclones

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Water Resources - Salinisation
Observed Impacts
The narrow width of the islands means saltwater
intrusion is always a threat to shallow wells
such as these. Drought reduces the fresh water
level, and risks contamination.
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Research Method Information Gathering

• Needed
• an information paper on VA objectives for
  stakeholders
• consultations with key ministries and consultants
• Island specific data relevant to the scope of the
  assessment
• collated published information
• physical, social, economic, political

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Field Research
Challenges

• Focal point established
• Overview of the island
• Meetings with government officials, community
  leaders
• Informal discussions
• School and Media Presentations
• Qualitative observations including anecdotal
  evidence

• Trust
• Limited time
• Presenting complex material
• Getting relevant input
• Recording feedback
• Verifying anecdotes
• Quantifying observations and uncertainties

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Island SpecificMangaia and Storm Surge
Housing located on makatea ridge Coral is
porous Storm surges increase swamp salinity
anecdotal no baseline
Taro Root Crops Suffer -major export -source of
nutrition
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Nature of Findings

• Poor linkages between levels of government,
  departments, and external projects/consultants
• Data access and storage disjointed
• Coastal zone as a climate sensitive sector
• lack of locally relevant scientific assessment
  tools (although maybe have some now!)
• insight from locals e.g. salt water intrusion
• but difficulty remained as to what decisions to
  make

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Coastal Area Adaptation Options Brainstorming
Method

• Traditional Measures
• reforestation, housing, windbreaks
• Technology
• Coastal protection devices
• Community
• Coastal Vegetation Planting
• Awareness/Education
• Policy
• Promote sustainable development - ecotourism
• Conservation, ICZM

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Expert Judgement use in identifying adaptation
options Example Marine Resources in Coastal Area

• Areas of concern
• erosion, coral reef resilience, near shore
  fisheries, pearl quality
• Adaptation options - Generalised
• development away from shoreline
• integrated coastal management
• raui, incorporate traditional and modern
  conservation
• monitoring, sensitive species and rehabilitation
  plans
• education and awareness
• Reduce sources of sedimentation and
  eutrophication

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Current Practices new methods, more data

• Case studies -Site specific and localised
  assessment,
• CBDAMPIC, Participatory VA, Adaptation Option
  Implementation
• CLIMAP Modelling Coastal Inundation Costs of
  Adaptation
• AIACC Research based lack of data for
  modelling impacts
• Use of technology such as GIS
• More focus on adaptation option assessment, costs
  and benefits, socioeconomic and livelihood
  aspects, integration into policy, promotion of
  adaptation

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Lessons Learnt

• Different islands in the Cooks have very
  different vulnerability profiles and adaptation
  needs
• Lack of quantitative assessment tools and data
  means baselines are difficult to establish
• Meetings can be hard to arrange informants feel
  over consulted frustrated by studies and no
  action
• Recording everything in a systematic way vital ,
  time consuming
• Need to Verify facts from all sources as many
  repeat errors
• Much awareness can be generated simply through
  audio-visual resources
• Incorporation of climate relevant policies into
  island development plans ongoing issue

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Future Directions

• Open Structure Models, focused data collection
• Access to national and international technical
  expertise
• Improve results obtained from simple methods,
  interview skills, checklists
• Reporting Important, takes time, need benchmarks
• Risk Management and coping ability
• Integrated management plans
• Implementation through policy, National
  Implementation Strategy
• Public Education Awareness
• Continued lobbying for adaptation assistance

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Conclusion

• Recognising the urgency of these assessments, the
  time constraints (3 years) in which we have to
  produce the second national communications, one
  role for us is to ensure the VA produces better
  information and baselines for now and the future
  so we are further ahead for precautionary
  approaches.

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Thankyou
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