Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture

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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Agricultural Activities In Climate Change
Risk Management in Egypt project
Mahmoud Medany The Central Laboratory for
Agricultural Climate The Agricultural Research
Center MALR
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Presentation Outline

• Climate change projections and risks
• Why climate change is such critical issue for
  agriculture?
• Circumstances of the agricultural sector in
  Egypt.
• Climate change impacts over agricultural sector
  in Egypt.
• The vulnerability of the agricultural sector in
  Egypt to climate change.
• Mitigation and adaptation the critical
  challenge.
• National priorities of agricultural sector
  adaptation plans.
• Agricultural activities in Climate Change Risk
  Management in Egypt

Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Climate Change Projections and Risks
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as
is now evident from observations of increases in
global average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
global mean sea level.
Khalil et al, 2008
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

• For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2C
  per decade is projected for a range of SRES
  emission scenarios.
• Projected sea-level rise will affect low-lying
  coastal areas with large populations.
• The frequency of heat waves is projected very
  likely to increases over most land areas
• Area affected by drought is projected likely to
  increases.
• Likely increase of incidence of extreme events.

Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
WRI. 2002. World Resources Institute. Drylands,
People, and Ecosystem Goods and Services A
Web-based Geospatial Analysis. Available online
at http//www.wri.org.
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Why Climate Change is such Critical Issue for
Agriculture?
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Agriculture and Natural Systems
The risks associated with agriculture and climate
change is a result to the strong complicated
relationships between agriculture and climate
system, plus the high reliance of agriculture
system on the natural resources.
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Total Emissions
GHGs Emissions from Agriculture in Egypt
(1990/1991)
CH4 Emissions

• Enteric fermentation
• Manure management
• Agricultural soils
• Rice cultivation
• Field burning of agricultural residues

N2O Emissions
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture

• Impacts
• Crop production
• Water demands
• Extreme events.
• Vulnerability
• Agriculture system characteristics
• Water situation
• Socioeconomics
• Adaptation

Climate Change Agriculture I, V A
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Impacts of climate change are likely to be the
greatest in the developing world

• Limited resources
• Degradation of natural resources
• Current vulnerability
• Low income.
• Food crises
• Poor access to technologies
• Low investments in production
• Political conflicts

Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Circumstances of the Agricultural Sector in Egypt
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
AGRICULTURE NUMBERS FACTS

• 17 of GDP.
• 30 of labor force.
• 20 of the country's exports.
• 50 of the Egyptian population live in rural
  areas.
• Helps in financing economic and social
  development.

Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
AGRICULTURE NUMBERS FACTS

• Total cropped area 8 million feddan (3.36
  Million ha).
• Nile river banks and in the Delta Old Lands
  80.
• Reclaimed land in desert areas New Lands 20.
• Egypt grows a wide variety of field, vegetable
  and fruit crops.
• Uses gt 80 of the total annual water budget.

Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Agriculture Numbers Facts
Comparison between the productivity of major
groups of field crops in Egypt and the world
(source FAO, 2007)
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Climate Change Impacts over Agricultural Sector
in Egypt
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Change in crop yield
Reference Change Change Crop
Reference 2100s 2050s Crop
Eid and EL-Marsafawy, 2002 -11 Rice
Eid et al., 1997 -19 Maize
Hassanein and Medany, 2007 -20 -14 Maize
Eid and EL-Marsafawy, 2002 -28 Soybeans
Eid et al., 1997 -20 Barley
Eid et al., 1997 31 17 Cotton
Temperature increased by 2C Temperature
increased by 4C
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Change in crop-water requirements
Source Attaher and Medany (2008)
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Change in WUE
Source Attaher and Medany (2008)
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
The Vulnerability of the Agricultural Sector in
Egypt to Climate Change
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture

• Less sensitive to climate variability irrigated
  agriculture system
• Sand storms, heat and cold waves.
• SLR 12-15 of the existing agricultural land in
  the Delta could be lost

Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture

• Water resources and water demands
• Critical water resources situation vs. low
  efficiency irrigation systems poor irrigation
  management.
• Soil and water resources degradation
• Population increase
• The size of agriculture-land ownership
• The role of agriculture in social structure of
  rural regions in Egypt.
• The role of agriculture in Egyptian economy,
• Knowledge level and gaps.

Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Mitigation and Adaptation The Critical
Challenge!
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Agriculture is Vulnerable to Climate Change
The need for Adaptation plans have a greater
importance for agricultural sector than
mitigation
Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture

• Adaptation plans to climate change become one of
  the top priorities of sustainable development of
  agricultural sector in Egypt.
• Adaptation of agricultural sector should be
  integrated, sustainable, economic efficient,
  continues and long term plans.
• The complicated relationships associated within
  the agriculture sector components, and between
  the agriculture sector and the other sectors,
  amplify the difficulties of adaptation planning.

Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Barriers and limitations of Adaptation

• Scientific gaps
• Policy perceptions under current conditions and
  pressures.
• Adaptive capacity
• Financial support.
• Institutional framework
• International pressures
• Traditional knowledge, local conditions, and
  imported solutions.
• Sustainable development

Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
National Priorities of Agricultural Sector
Adaptation Plans
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Relationships between adaptation and mitigation
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Adaptation priorities

• Stress tolerant cultivars, crops and improved
  crop pattern
• Changing sowing dates.
• Improved on-farm irrigation management.
• Improving drainage systems.
• Integrated and improved crop-management.
• Financial and insurance systems.
• Capacity building and public awareness.
• Institutional framework.
• New land.

Inception workshop, May 5, 2009
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Agricultural Activities in Climate Change Risk
Management in Egypt Project
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Agricultural Activities
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Stresses tolerant varieties

1. Identifying the pilot locations of the study,
   representing different agriculture systems in
   Egypt.
2. Collecting historical data of weather conditions,
   soil and water resources of the locations of the
   study.
3. Tolerated varieties and crop selection , which
   differnt treatments of heat, water and salinity
   stresses.
4. Conducting two seasons' field studies to evaluate
   the selected varieties.
5. Analyzing the results of crops field-studies.
6. Field-studies by evaluation by DSSAT simulation.

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Level of Sensitivity

• Parameters which are sensitive and very sensitive
  are (heat, water and salinity stresses).
• Soil parameters which are related to soil water
  availability
• Crops Phenology parameters, in particular for
  active vegetative phase, seed filling phase and
  leaves growth, size of leaves (LAI)

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Crop pattern scenarios under climate change

1. Identifying the current major crop pattern from
   historical agricultural statistics.
2. Identify the key parameters and forces driving
   the annual changes in crop pattern.
3. Study the trend of change in cultivated area by
   using remote sensing techniques.
4. Prepare the data sets of future climate
   conditions by using GCM and/ or RCM future
   climate data sets.
5. Prepare the data sets required to crop simulation
   model.
6. Conduct simulation experiments.
7. Propose and evaluate a number of crop patterns by
   using numerical and analytical analysis methods.

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knowledge dissemination to stakeholders regarding
to stresses tolerant varieties

• Identifying the stakeholders groups.
• Establishment of indicated contacts to
  stakeholders groups.
• Establish oriented information packages to
  different targeted stakeholders groups.
• Identifying the suitable dissemination channels
  and means
• Conducting workshops, training programs and
  field days.
• Create a dialogue on what if/so what

Web Site http//www.clac.edu.eg

• Weather Data
• Normal
• Daily data
• Climate digital maps
• Water requirements
• AGR. Application
• Chilling requirements
• Heat Units
• Math. Models
• Climate change

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• Plan of work
• The programme will be executed in two seasons
  along three years.
• Two years for field testing starts from summer
  season 2009.
• Third year will be specified for analyzing the
  field experiments results and final report
  writing.

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• Locations cover the three agro climatic zones of
  Egypt
• (Delta, Middle Egypt and Upper Egypt)
• and two soil types old and new land.
• Three irrigation levels (2 DI 60 80 of ET,
  and the control)
• Winter season. wheat, faba bean, berseem clover
• Summer season Corn, rice, sunflower, peanut.

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• Summer Season 2009
• Corn
• Three Locations in old land only
• EL-Gemmeiza, Sids,
  Mallawy
• Preliminary 9 entries 1 check 10
• Advanced 11entries 1 check 12
• Total number of trials 6

DI treatments
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Rice - Four location in old land only
EL- Gemmeiza, Sakha, Zarzoura,
EL-Serw Preliminary 19 entries 7 check
26 Advanced 6 entries 6 check 12 Total
number of trials 8
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• Sunflower
• Six locations in old and new land
• EL-Nubaria, Mallawy, Assuit,
  Shandaweel, New-Valley
• Preliminary 19 entries 7 check 26
• Advanced 6 entries 6 check 12
• Total number of trials 8

DI treatments
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• Peanut
• Six locations in old and new land
• Bahteem, EL-Esmailya, Mallawy, Assuit,
  Shandaweel, New valley
• Preliminary 15 entries 1 check 26
• Advanced 5 entries 1 check 12
• Total number of trials 12

DI treatments
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Vulnerability and adaptation component
Agriculture
Thank You!
Inception workshop, 26th February 2009